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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pastoral Mobility in the Far North Region, Cameroon: Data Analysis and Modeling.

Xiao N, Cai S, Moritz M, Garabed R, Pomeroy LW - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas.These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time.We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Modeling the movements of humans and animals is critical to understanding the transmission of infectious diseases in complex social and ecological systems. In this paper, we focus on the movements of pastoralists in the Far North Region of Cameroon, who follow an annual transhumance by moving between rainy and dry season pastures. Describing, summarizing, and modeling the transhumance movements in the region are important steps for understanding the role these movements may play in the transmission of infectious diseases affecting humans and animals. We collected data on this transhumance system for four years using a combination of surveys and GPS mapping. An analysis on the spatial and temporal characteristics of pastoral mobility suggests four transhumance modes, each with its own properties. Modes M1 and M2 represent the type of transhumance movements where pastoralists settle in a campsite for a relatively long period of time (≥20 days) and then move around the area without specific directions within a seasonal grazing area. Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas. These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time. We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Daily mean moving distance obtained from the 2007–2008 data and 100 simulations using STM, KRN, and MVN.
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pone.0131697.g012: Daily mean moving distance obtained from the 2007–2008 data and 100 simulations using STM, KRN, and MVN.

Mentions: Fig 12 shows the dynamics of the mean daily moving distance over the 100 simulations for all the groups against the 2007–2008 data. The Data curves in this figure show the diversity of the pastoralist movements as these curves dramatically change through time, caused by the diverse movement pattern of different pastoralists. The pastoralists generally do not move at the same time, except at the end of the rainy season when they have the pressure to move toward the dry season lands in the north. Therefore daily moving distance greatly varies between pastoralists and from day to day as some may stay in a camp for a long time while others are on the move. To show the trend more effectively, we used a 20-day moving window to smooth the moving distance measures (see S1 Fig) and the smoothing result suggested that all the three models captured the overall trend of moving distance exhibited in the data and it appeared that the STM curve stayed closer to the data curve for most of the days.


Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pastoral Mobility in the Far North Region, Cameroon: Data Analysis and Modeling.

Xiao N, Cai S, Moritz M, Garabed R, Pomeroy LW - PLoS ONE (2015)

Daily mean moving distance obtained from the 2007–2008 data and 100 simulations using STM, KRN, and MVN.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4495066&req=5

pone.0131697.g012: Daily mean moving distance obtained from the 2007–2008 data and 100 simulations using STM, KRN, and MVN.
Mentions: Fig 12 shows the dynamics of the mean daily moving distance over the 100 simulations for all the groups against the 2007–2008 data. The Data curves in this figure show the diversity of the pastoralist movements as these curves dramatically change through time, caused by the diverse movement pattern of different pastoralists. The pastoralists generally do not move at the same time, except at the end of the rainy season when they have the pressure to move toward the dry season lands in the north. Therefore daily moving distance greatly varies between pastoralists and from day to day as some may stay in a camp for a long time while others are on the move. To show the trend more effectively, we used a 20-day moving window to smooth the moving distance measures (see S1 Fig) and the smoothing result suggested that all the three models captured the overall trend of moving distance exhibited in the data and it appeared that the STM curve stayed closer to the data curve for most of the days.

Bottom Line: Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas.These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time.We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Modeling the movements of humans and animals is critical to understanding the transmission of infectious diseases in complex social and ecological systems. In this paper, we focus on the movements of pastoralists in the Far North Region of Cameroon, who follow an annual transhumance by moving between rainy and dry season pastures. Describing, summarizing, and modeling the transhumance movements in the region are important steps for understanding the role these movements may play in the transmission of infectious diseases affecting humans and animals. We collected data on this transhumance system for four years using a combination of surveys and GPS mapping. An analysis on the spatial and temporal characteristics of pastoral mobility suggests four transhumance modes, each with its own properties. Modes M1 and M2 represent the type of transhumance movements where pastoralists settle in a campsite for a relatively long period of time (≥20 days) and then move around the area without specific directions within a seasonal grazing area. Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas. These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time. We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus