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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pastoral Mobility in the Far North Region, Cameroon: Data Analysis and Modeling.

Xiao N, Cai S, Moritz M, Garabed R, Pomeroy LW - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas.These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time.We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Modeling the movements of humans and animals is critical to understanding the transmission of infectious diseases in complex social and ecological systems. In this paper, we focus on the movements of pastoralists in the Far North Region of Cameroon, who follow an annual transhumance by moving between rainy and dry season pastures. Describing, summarizing, and modeling the transhumance movements in the region are important steps for understanding the role these movements may play in the transmission of infectious diseases affecting humans and animals. We collected data on this transhumance system for four years using a combination of surveys and GPS mapping. An analysis on the spatial and temporal characteristics of pastoral mobility suggests four transhumance modes, each with its own properties. Modes M1 and M2 represent the type of transhumance movements where pastoralists settle in a campsite for a relatively long period of time (≥20 days) and then move around the area without specific directions within a seasonal grazing area. Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas. These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time. We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Results of fitting the temporal models.Each curve represents the probability of a particular day being in a specific transhumance mode. The horizontal axis indicates the days in a year starting on August 16.
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pone.0131697.g007: Results of fitting the temporal models.Each curve represents the probability of a particular day being in a specific transhumance mode. The horizontal axis indicates the days in a year starting on August 16.

Mentions: With the four years data collected, we used 2007–2008 data to fit the models (see the result in S1 Table). The fitted models were then tested using the data from the other three years (next section). Fig 7 shows the result of fitting the temporal models. Groups 1 and 2 had similar trends in terms of how the transhumance modes changed throughout the year. Pastoralists in these groups tended to move around their rainy season locations at the beginning of the year (again, the first day here is August 16) as the peak of the curve for mode M1 concentrated on the early days (i.e., day 10 for group 1 and day 19 for group 2, see Table 2). The major transhumance mode transited to M3 when the pastoralists started their transhumance toward the dry season lands. The results suggested that M3 “took over” at around day 60 for both groups when the blue curve surpassed the green curve. After day 150 for group 1 and day 170 for group 2, the majority of the pastoralists exhibited mode M2 when they reached their dry season lands and started to stay at each location in a relatively longer period of time. This continued until day 290 (group 1) or day 280 (group 2) when the probability of mode M3 started to surpass M2 as the pastoralists began their transhumance back to the rainy season lands in the south. Mode M1 became the main transhumance mode after day 320 (group 1) or 350 (group 2) after the pastoralists arrived the south.


Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pastoral Mobility in the Far North Region, Cameroon: Data Analysis and Modeling.

Xiao N, Cai S, Moritz M, Garabed R, Pomeroy LW - PLoS ONE (2015)

Results of fitting the temporal models.Each curve represents the probability of a particular day being in a specific transhumance mode. The horizontal axis indicates the days in a year starting on August 16.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4495066&req=5

pone.0131697.g007: Results of fitting the temporal models.Each curve represents the probability of a particular day being in a specific transhumance mode. The horizontal axis indicates the days in a year starting on August 16.
Mentions: With the four years data collected, we used 2007–2008 data to fit the models (see the result in S1 Table). The fitted models were then tested using the data from the other three years (next section). Fig 7 shows the result of fitting the temporal models. Groups 1 and 2 had similar trends in terms of how the transhumance modes changed throughout the year. Pastoralists in these groups tended to move around their rainy season locations at the beginning of the year (again, the first day here is August 16) as the peak of the curve for mode M1 concentrated on the early days (i.e., day 10 for group 1 and day 19 for group 2, see Table 2). The major transhumance mode transited to M3 when the pastoralists started their transhumance toward the dry season lands. The results suggested that M3 “took over” at around day 60 for both groups when the blue curve surpassed the green curve. After day 150 for group 1 and day 170 for group 2, the majority of the pastoralists exhibited mode M2 when they reached their dry season lands and started to stay at each location in a relatively longer period of time. This continued until day 290 (group 1) or day 280 (group 2) when the probability of mode M3 started to surpass M2 as the pastoralists began their transhumance back to the rainy season lands in the south. Mode M1 became the main transhumance mode after day 320 (group 1) or 350 (group 2) after the pastoralists arrived the south.

Bottom Line: Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas.These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time.We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Modeling the movements of humans and animals is critical to understanding the transmission of infectious diseases in complex social and ecological systems. In this paper, we focus on the movements of pastoralists in the Far North Region of Cameroon, who follow an annual transhumance by moving between rainy and dry season pastures. Describing, summarizing, and modeling the transhumance movements in the region are important steps for understanding the role these movements may play in the transmission of infectious diseases affecting humans and animals. We collected data on this transhumance system for four years using a combination of surveys and GPS mapping. An analysis on the spatial and temporal characteristics of pastoral mobility suggests four transhumance modes, each with its own properties. Modes M1 and M2 represent the type of transhumance movements where pastoralists settle in a campsite for a relatively long period of time (≥20 days) and then move around the area without specific directions within a seasonal grazing area. Modes M3 and M4 on the other hand are the situations when pastoralists stay in a campsite for a relatively short period of time (<20 days) when moving between seasonal grazing areas. These four modes are used to develop a spatial-temporal mobility (STM) model that can be used to estimate the probability of a mobile pastoralist residing at a location at any time. We compare the STM model with two reference models and the experiments suggest that the STM model can effectively capture and predict the space-time dynamics of pastoral mobility in our study area.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus