Limits...
The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus.

Kraemer MU, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQ, Shearer FM, Barker CM, Moore CG, Carvalho RG, Coelho GE, Van Bortel W, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Elyazar IR, Teng HJ, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Pigott DM, Scott TW, Smith DL, Wint GR, Golding N, Hay SI - Elife (2015)

Bottom Line: Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution.We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe.It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT
Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.007
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fig1s3: Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.007

Mentions: For both species, the most important predictor was temperature. Temperature suitability indices had high relative influence statistics for both species; this variable was selected in approximately half of regression tree decisions for Ae. aegypti (54.9%, CI = 53.7–56%) and Ae. albopictus (44.3%, CI = 42.7–45.6%). The full definition of a relative influence statistic is given in the ‘Materials and methods’ section under the heading Predictive performance and relative influence of covariates. Precipitation and vegetation indices made up the remainder of predictors. Urban land cover made very little contribution to either model (Table 2). Model evaluation statistics under cross-validation were high (AUC: 0.87 and 0.9 respectively) for both model ensembles, indicating high predictive performance of the model. Effect plots for each covariate are shown in Figure 1—figure supplement 2. Maps of uncertainty associated with these predictions are presented in Figure 1—figure supplement 3.10.7554/eLife.08347.011Table 2.


The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus.

Kraemer MU, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQ, Shearer FM, Barker CM, Moore CG, Carvalho RG, Coelho GE, Van Bortel W, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Elyazar IR, Teng HJ, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Pigott DM, Scott TW, Smith DL, Wint GR, Golding N, Hay SI - Elife (2015)

Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.007
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4493616&req=5

fig1s3: Visualization of pixel level uncertainty calculated using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals associated with the prediction maps for Ae. aegypti (A) and Ae. albopictus (B).DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.007
Mentions: For both species, the most important predictor was temperature. Temperature suitability indices had high relative influence statistics for both species; this variable was selected in approximately half of regression tree decisions for Ae. aegypti (54.9%, CI = 53.7–56%) and Ae. albopictus (44.3%, CI = 42.7–45.6%). The full definition of a relative influence statistic is given in the ‘Materials and methods’ section under the heading Predictive performance and relative influence of covariates. Precipitation and vegetation indices made up the remainder of predictors. Urban land cover made very little contribution to either model (Table 2). Model evaluation statistics under cross-validation were high (AUC: 0.87 and 0.9 respectively) for both model ensembles, indicating high predictive performance of the model. Effect plots for each covariate are shown in Figure 1—figure supplement 2. Maps of uncertainty associated with these predictions are presented in Figure 1—figure supplement 3.10.7554/eLife.08347.011Table 2.

Bottom Line: Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution.We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe.It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT
Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus