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Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA.

Bellard C, Leclerc C, Courchamp F - Sci Rep (2015)

Bottom Line: Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction.These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur.This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] Genetics, Evolution &Environment, Div Biosciences, Center for Biodiversity, Environment &Research, University College of London [2] Ecologie, Systématique &Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France.

ABSTRACT
Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080  . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Threat maps for the 2080 s (A1B emission scenario) of (A) local climate change (mean of the three GCMs) and areas inundated by a 2 m increase in sea level, in highlighted squares and in brown; (B) predicted number of invasive alien species (mean of the three GCMs); (C) land-use classes including mining, developed, croplands, grasslands, pastures, and forested lands. Figure created with ArcGIS 10.2.1 software.
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f1: Threat maps for the 2080 s (A1B emission scenario) of (A) local climate change (mean of the three GCMs) and areas inundated by a 2 m increase in sea level, in highlighted squares and in brown; (B) predicted number of invasive alien species (mean of the three GCMs); (C) land-use classes including mining, developed, croplands, grasslands, pastures, and forested lands. Figure created with ArcGIS 10.2.1 software.

Mentions: Only 0.31% of the surface area of the USA is predicted to be at risk of permanent inundation following a sea-level rise of 1 m. However, these predicted losses can be locally significant because they are concentrated in restricted coastal areas. Our results showed that sea-level rise will occur mainly in the states of Rhode Island (15%) and Delaware (7%). By contrast, local climate change (modification of temperature and precipitation) will be important and widespread over the eastern part and restricted to specific geographic areas across the western part of the USA under the A1B emission scenario (Fig. 1A). The predicted threats by invasive alien species and land-use showed a similar pattern, with a large area at risk throughout the eastern part and some restricted areas of high risk along the western coast (Fig. 1B,C).


Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA.

Bellard C, Leclerc C, Courchamp F - Sci Rep (2015)

Threat maps for the 2080 s (A1B emission scenario) of (A) local climate change (mean of the three GCMs) and areas inundated by a 2 m increase in sea level, in highlighted squares and in brown; (B) predicted number of invasive alien species (mean of the three GCMs); (C) land-use classes including mining, developed, croplands, grasslands, pastures, and forested lands. Figure created with ArcGIS 10.2.1 software.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4493580&req=5

f1: Threat maps for the 2080 s (A1B emission scenario) of (A) local climate change (mean of the three GCMs) and areas inundated by a 2 m increase in sea level, in highlighted squares and in brown; (B) predicted number of invasive alien species (mean of the three GCMs); (C) land-use classes including mining, developed, croplands, grasslands, pastures, and forested lands. Figure created with ArcGIS 10.2.1 software.
Mentions: Only 0.31% of the surface area of the USA is predicted to be at risk of permanent inundation following a sea-level rise of 1 m. However, these predicted losses can be locally significant because they are concentrated in restricted coastal areas. Our results showed that sea-level rise will occur mainly in the states of Rhode Island (15%) and Delaware (7%). By contrast, local climate change (modification of temperature and precipitation) will be important and widespread over the eastern part and restricted to specific geographic areas across the western part of the USA under the A1B emission scenario (Fig. 1A). The predicted threats by invasive alien species and land-use showed a similar pattern, with a large area at risk throughout the eastern part and some restricted areas of high risk along the western coast (Fig. 1B,C).

Bottom Line: Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction.These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur.This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] Genetics, Evolution &Environment, Div Biosciences, Center for Biodiversity, Environment &Research, University College of London [2] Ecologie, Systématique &Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France.

ABSTRACT
Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080  . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus