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Modeling Honey Bee Populations.

Torres DJ, Ricoy UM, Roybal S - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes.Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al.We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Physical Science, Northern New Mexico College, Espanola, NM, USA.

ABSTRACT
Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Effect of length of summer on adult bee population.
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pone.0130966.g016: Effect of length of summer on adult bee population.

Mentions: The third study varies the length of the summer by modifying Eq (32) which determines the egg laying rate . We use a similar forms˜(t)=1-{11+x3exp([2(t-x˜4)/(x˜5+5)])t<15011+x3exp(-[2(t-x˜4)/x˜5])t≥150(33)but one which is easier to manipulate through one parameter . The parameters are assumed to be x3 = 36, , . The onset of summer is assumed to occur when reaches a value of .15 during the spring and decreases to .05 during the fall. The winter days outside of summer determine when the hive bees cease to develop into foragers and experience a reduced mortality of .01. Note that has a maximum value of .973 while s(t) has a maximum of 1. The length of the summer occurs from days 44 to 264 when , days 57 to 248 when , and days 84 to 215 when . Fig 16 shows that the shortened summer 84–215 reduces the peak adult population. However, summer day ranges 44–264 and 57–248 have similar adult bee peak values despite the fact that the summer is 29 days shorter for the summer day range 57–248 simulation.


Modeling Honey Bee Populations.

Torres DJ, Ricoy UM, Roybal S - PLoS ONE (2015)

Effect of length of summer on adult bee population.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4493160&req=5

pone.0130966.g016: Effect of length of summer on adult bee population.
Mentions: The third study varies the length of the summer by modifying Eq (32) which determines the egg laying rate . We use a similar forms˜(t)=1-{11+x3exp([2(t-x˜4)/(x˜5+5)])t<15011+x3exp(-[2(t-x˜4)/x˜5])t≥150(33)but one which is easier to manipulate through one parameter . The parameters are assumed to be x3 = 36, , . The onset of summer is assumed to occur when reaches a value of .15 during the spring and decreases to .05 during the fall. The winter days outside of summer determine when the hive bees cease to develop into foragers and experience a reduced mortality of .01. Note that has a maximum value of .973 while s(t) has a maximum of 1. The length of the summer occurs from days 44 to 264 when , days 57 to 248 when , and days 84 to 215 when . Fig 16 shows that the shortened summer 84–215 reduces the peak adult population. However, summer day ranges 44–264 and 57–248 have similar adult bee peak values despite the fact that the summer is 29 days shorter for the summer day range 57–248 simulation.

Bottom Line: Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes.Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al.We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Physical Science, Northern New Mexico College, Espanola, NM, USA.

ABSTRACT
Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus