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A Stochastic Model to Study Rift Valley Fever Persistence with Different Seasonal Patterns of Vector Abundance: New Insights on the Endemicity in the Tropical Island of Mayotte.

Cavalerie L, Charron MV, Ezanno P, Dommergues L, Zumbo B, Cardinale E - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Transmission rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data.Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission.Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: CRVOI, Centre de Recherche et de Veille sur les maladies émergentes dans l'Océan Indien, F-97490 Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France; CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, France; INRA, UMR 1309 CMAEE, F-34398, Montpellier, France; AgroParisTech, F-75005, Paris, France; Université de la Réunion, F-97715 Saint Denis, La Réunion, France.

ABSTRACT
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic vector-borne disease causing abortion storms in cattle and human epidemics in Africa. Our aim was to evaluate RVF persistence in a seasonal and isolated population and to apply it to Mayotte Island (Indian Ocean), where the virus was still silently circulating four years after its last known introduction in 2007. We proposed a stochastic model to estimate RVF persistence over several years and under four seasonal patterns of vector abundance. Firstly, the model predicted a wide range of virus spread patterns, from obligate persistence in a constant or tropical environment (without needing vertical transmission or reintroduction) to frequent extinctions in a drier climate. We then identified for each scenario of seasonality the parameters that most influenced prediction variations. Persistence was sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host viraemia duration and vector lifespan in a drier climate. The first epizootic peak was primarily sensitive to viraemia duration and thus likely to be controlled by vaccination, whereas subsequent peaks were sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host birth rate and viraemia duration in arid climates. Finally, we parameterized the model according to Mayotte known environment. Mosquito captures estimated the abundance of eight potential RVF vectors. Review of RVF competence studies on these species allowed adjusting transmission probabilities per bite. Ruminant serological data since 2004 and three new cross-sectional seroprevalence studies are presented. Transmission rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data. Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission. Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Conceptual model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission.Flow diagram describing the model used for RVF spread in populations of adult mosquitoes (V), aquatic stage of mosquitoes (A) and ruminants hosts (H). Each square represents a health state X in population i (Xi,) with X = S standing for susceptible, E for latent, I for infectious, and R for recovered and immune animals. The description, values and references for all parameters can be found in Table 1.
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pone.0130838.g001: Conceptual model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission.Flow diagram describing the model used for RVF spread in populations of adult mosquitoes (V), aquatic stage of mosquitoes (A) and ruminants hosts (H). Each square represents a health state X in population i (Xi,) with X = S standing for susceptible, E for latent, I for infectious, and R for recovered and immune animals. The description, values and references for all parameters can be found in Table 1.

Mentions: To study RVF persistence, we proposed a stochastic compartmental model (Fig 1) adapted from Gaff et al. previous work [20]. Our aim was a better understanding of RVF persistence and humans are unlikely to play a major role [4]. Therefore, we focused on domestic ruminants and vectors but excluded humans. We considered three populations: ruminant hosts (NH), adult vectors (NV) and vectors in the aquatic stage (NA).


A Stochastic Model to Study Rift Valley Fever Persistence with Different Seasonal Patterns of Vector Abundance: New Insights on the Endemicity in the Tropical Island of Mayotte.

Cavalerie L, Charron MV, Ezanno P, Dommergues L, Zumbo B, Cardinale E - PLoS ONE (2015)

Conceptual model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission.Flow diagram describing the model used for RVF spread in populations of adult mosquitoes (V), aquatic stage of mosquitoes (A) and ruminants hosts (H). Each square represents a health state X in population i (Xi,) with X = S standing for susceptible, E for latent, I for infectious, and R for recovered and immune animals. The description, values and references for all parameters can be found in Table 1.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4493030&req=5

pone.0130838.g001: Conceptual model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission.Flow diagram describing the model used for RVF spread in populations of adult mosquitoes (V), aquatic stage of mosquitoes (A) and ruminants hosts (H). Each square represents a health state X in population i (Xi,) with X = S standing for susceptible, E for latent, I for infectious, and R for recovered and immune animals. The description, values and references for all parameters can be found in Table 1.
Mentions: To study RVF persistence, we proposed a stochastic compartmental model (Fig 1) adapted from Gaff et al. previous work [20]. Our aim was a better understanding of RVF persistence and humans are unlikely to play a major role [4]. Therefore, we focused on domestic ruminants and vectors but excluded humans. We considered three populations: ruminant hosts (NH), adult vectors (NV) and vectors in the aquatic stage (NA).

Bottom Line: Transmission rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data.Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission.Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: CRVOI, Centre de Recherche et de Veille sur les maladies émergentes dans l'Océan Indien, F-97490 Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France; CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, France; INRA, UMR 1309 CMAEE, F-34398, Montpellier, France; AgroParisTech, F-75005, Paris, France; Université de la Réunion, F-97715 Saint Denis, La Réunion, France.

ABSTRACT
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic vector-borne disease causing abortion storms in cattle and human epidemics in Africa. Our aim was to evaluate RVF persistence in a seasonal and isolated population and to apply it to Mayotte Island (Indian Ocean), where the virus was still silently circulating four years after its last known introduction in 2007. We proposed a stochastic model to estimate RVF persistence over several years and under four seasonal patterns of vector abundance. Firstly, the model predicted a wide range of virus spread patterns, from obligate persistence in a constant or tropical environment (without needing vertical transmission or reintroduction) to frequent extinctions in a drier climate. We then identified for each scenario of seasonality the parameters that most influenced prediction variations. Persistence was sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host viraemia duration and vector lifespan in a drier climate. The first epizootic peak was primarily sensitive to viraemia duration and thus likely to be controlled by vaccination, whereas subsequent peaks were sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host birth rate and viraemia duration in arid climates. Finally, we parameterized the model according to Mayotte known environment. Mosquito captures estimated the abundance of eight potential RVF vectors. Review of RVF competence studies on these species allowed adjusting transmission probabilities per bite. Ruminant serological data since 2004 and three new cross-sectional seroprevalence studies are presented. Transmission rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data. Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission. Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus