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A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

Madrigano J, Ito K, Johnson S, Kinney PL, Matte T - Environ. Health Perspect. (2015)

Bottom Line: As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality.A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period.Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA.

ABSTRACT

Background: As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level.

Methods: We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets.

Results: A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space.

Conclusion: Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

NYC census tracts according to composite heat vulnerability index. The indexis composed of z-scores of the following variables: (+)proportion of homes receiving public assistance, (+) proportion ofnon-Hispanic black residents, (+) proportion of overall deaths occurring inthe home, (+) relative surface temperature, (–) proportion of trees. Ahigher composite index score indicates a residential area with a higher riskof heat-related mortality.
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f1: NYC census tracts according to composite heat vulnerability index. The indexis composed of z-scores of the following variables: (+)proportion of homes receiving public assistance, (+) proportion ofnon-Hispanic black residents, (+) proportion of overall deaths occurring inthe home, (+) relative surface temperature, (–) proportion of trees. Ahigher composite index score indicates a residential area with a higher riskof heat-related mortality.

Mentions: We created a composite index consisting of z-scores of the followingvariables: (+) proportion of homes receiving public assistance, (+) proportion ofnon-Hispanic black residents, (+) proportion of overall deaths occurring in thehome, (+) relative surface temperature, (–) proportion of trees. A map ofcensus tracts according to the composite index is shown in Figure 1. When we examined the composite index as a modifier ofheat-related mortality with a multinomial logistic regression, we observed a clearassociation (Figure 2); individuals who livedin census tracts with higher composite index scores were more likely to die duringheat waves.


A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

Madrigano J, Ito K, Johnson S, Kinney PL, Matte T - Environ. Health Perspect. (2015)

NYC census tracts according to composite heat vulnerability index. The indexis composed of z-scores of the following variables: (+)proportion of homes receiving public assistance, (+) proportion ofnon-Hispanic black residents, (+) proportion of overall deaths occurring inthe home, (+) relative surface temperature, (–) proportion of trees. Ahigher composite index score indicates a residential area with a higher riskof heat-related mortality.
© Copyright Policy - public-domain
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4492264&req=5

f1: NYC census tracts according to composite heat vulnerability index. The indexis composed of z-scores of the following variables: (+)proportion of homes receiving public assistance, (+) proportion ofnon-Hispanic black residents, (+) proportion of overall deaths occurring inthe home, (+) relative surface temperature, (–) proportion of trees. Ahigher composite index score indicates a residential area with a higher riskof heat-related mortality.
Mentions: We created a composite index consisting of z-scores of the followingvariables: (+) proportion of homes receiving public assistance, (+) proportion ofnon-Hispanic black residents, (+) proportion of overall deaths occurring in thehome, (+) relative surface temperature, (–) proportion of trees. A map ofcensus tracts according to the composite index is shown in Figure 1. When we examined the composite index as a modifier ofheat-related mortality with a multinomial logistic regression, we observed a clearassociation (Figure 2); individuals who livedin census tracts with higher composite index scores were more likely to die duringheat waves.

Bottom Line: As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality.A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period.Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA.

ABSTRACT

Background: As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level.

Methods: We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets.

Results: A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space.

Conclusion: Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus