Limits...
Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality.

Weir HK, Thompson TD, Soman A, Møller B, Leadbetter S, White MC - Prev Chronic Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%).Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Epidemiology and Applied Research Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy, Mailstop F76, Atlanta, GA 30341. Email: hbw4@cdc.gov.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Healthy People 2020 (HP2020) calls for a 10% to 15% reduction in death rates from 2007 to 2020 for selected cancers. Trends in death rates can be used to predict progress toward meeting HP2020 targets.

Methods: We used mortality data from 1975 through 2009 and population estimates and projections to predict deaths for all cancers and the top 23 cancers among men and women by race. We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.

Results: From 1975 to 2009, the number of cancer deaths increased among white and black Americans primarily because of an aging white population and a growing black population. Overall, age-standardized cancer death rates (risk) declined in all groups. From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%). Declining death rates are predicted to meet HP2020 targets for cancers of the female breast, lung and bronchus, cervix and uterus, colon and rectum, oral cavity and pharynx, and prostate, but not for melanoma.

Conclusion: Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women. Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging population on the cancer burden and to meet melanoma target death rates.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Trends in observed and predicted age-adjusted death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the Healthy People 2020 cancer mortality objectives by sex and race, 1975–2020.YearWhite MaleWhite FemaleBlack MaleBlack FemaleAll Cancer Sites Combined1975254.00158.99320.45174.181976257.50161.69328.45179.101977258.78161.61337.95181.601978261.64162.54340.91181.531979263.24161.69344.67182.731980265.02164.17353.91189.241981263.26164.55358.65187.471982266.28166.11364.86190.171983267.22166.69369.32193.241984267.55169.02377.93195.671985268.24169.58377.82196.311986268.83170.01378.92199.051987268.96169.87383.24199.911988269.46170.94384.17200.361989270.25172.88395.28200.871990271.48172.89399.14205.381991271.19173.41395.85207.391992268.91172.58389.20205.801993267.89172.82394.76206.291994264.73172.62385.20204.061995261.46171.73379.02204.531996256.83169.85373.70200.941997251.58167.35363.18202.531998247.62165.38353.13198.381999247.14165.92349.23197.542000243.31165.94341.48193.262001240.03163.52334.93192.182002237.25162.14327.14191.512003231.79159.81316.59188.812004226.30156.68309.94183.642005224.75155.18303.63181.132006219.98153.59293.91177.572007216.61150.84291.00175.782008213.29148.23280.09170.952009209.78146.46274.73168.172010206.52144.69268.96166.512011203.12142.66262.53163.832012199.72140.63256.09161.142013197.16138.94251.54158.882014194.59137.24246.99156.632015192.02135.54242.45154.372017186.88132.15233.35149.852018185.20130.87230.68148.282019183.53129.58228.00146.712020181.85128.30225.33145.15Cervix Uteri1975—4.75—13.351976—4.68—12.861977—4.22—12.191978—4.15—11.641979—3.95—10.611980—3.77—10.781981—3.74—9.891982—3.51—9.771983—3.43—9.761984—3.36—9.271985—3.27—8.981986—3.22—9.231987—3.13—8.221988—3.10—8.151989—3.05—8.601990—3.19—7.771991—3.01—7.651992—3.01—8.071993—2.95—7.691994—3.00—6.711995—2.82—6.981996—2.87—6.201997—2.76—6.471998—2.65—5.911999—2.57—5.412000—2.47—5.432001—2.43—4.832002—2.28—4.982003—2.23—4.662004—2.18—4.522005—2.21—4.382006—2.21—4.342007—2.20—4.332008—2.17—4.192009—2.07—4.192010—2.09—4.012011—2.06—3.912012—2.03—3.822013—2.01—3.772014—2.00—3.722015—1.98—3.672016—1.96—3.622017—1.95—3.572018—1.94—3.552019—1.94—3.542020—1.93—3.53Colon and Rectum197533.2425.0630.0924.55197633.7625.4531.1626.26197733.4924.9731.4424.93197834.1225.1731.2025.66197933.9224.5731.5725.96198033.9924.3233.1825.89198133.1623.8532.8326.32198233.1123.4233.7126.12198333.3223.1132.9025.82198433.1223.4934.6526.22198532.7422.7734.1028.04198632.0122.0735.3626.35198731.8521.6335.1026.48198831.0421.1634.2925.88198930.5220.8236.3726.07199030.4320.1837.6426.59199129.3519.8535.8026.50199228.9919.4236.2325.43199328.1819.2835.8426.04199427.8918.8435.6624.88199527.1618.6436.3025.47199626.2917.9834.5224.86199725.6817.5935.0724.80199825.1317.4833.9024.78199924.9917.2034.5024.70200024.4517.0135.0123.89200123.8016.4833.4724.25200223.3416.0633.8622.95200322.5715.5132.7122.91200421.2314.7230.8721.41200520.5614.1331.2121.42200620.0214.1231.6520.29200719.6413.7329.7619.88200818.9813.3629.2818.97200918.5912.6827.5718.59201018.0012.5328.4818.33201117.4912.1728.0317.84201216.9911.8227.5717.36201316.6711.6027.2617.03201416.3611.3726.9516.70201516.0511.1526.6416.38201615.7410.9326.3216.05201715.4310.7126.0115.73201815.3110.6025.8915.57201915.1810.5025.7715.42202015.0610.4025.6515.27Female Breast1975—31.79—29.491976—32.17—30.471977—32.67—32.801978—31.90—32.141979—31.48—30.821980—31.93—31.681981—32.12—32.551982—32.31—33.751983—32.20—33.531984—32.90—35.941985—33.11—34.851986—32.93—35.441987—32.57—36.731988—33.09—37.781989—33.23—36.611990—33.02—38.001991—32.45—38.281992—31.43—37.091993—31.09—38.041994—30.56—37.741995—30.09—38.181996—29.05—37.131997—27.62—37.431998—27.01—35.531999—25.98—35.212000—26.17—34.382001—25.40—34.562002—24.97—34.202003—24.58—34.192004—23.85—32.422005—23.39—32.992006—22.92—31.802007—22.28—31.582008—21.85—31.222009—21.65—30.492010—21.01—30.222011—20.55—29.772012—20.08—29.312013—19.74—28.962014—19.40—28.602015—19.06—28.252016—18.72—27.892017—18.38—27.542018—18.16—27.302019—17.94—27.062020—17.73—26.82Lung and Bronchus197575.4717.6791.0117.34197677.5519.1093.9618.51197779.0920.09100.8019.91197880.7621.58101.6520.66197981.6422.42102.8922.24198083.2724.22106.6724.58198183.5225.10109.7125.10198285.1826.72112.5526.30198385.4028.28112.7628.73198486.2429.27117.9827.98198586.6930.81117.5029.64198687.0331.76119.1831.00198788.0933.04121.7732.48198887.8634.57122.1533.54198987.5736.27124.7234.87199088.4037.31125.1736.48199187.7638.12123.5837.16199285.9839.21121.0638.55199385.5239.97121.9837.72199483.7840.30118.6338.61199582.6240.97116.0838.84199681.1541.22113.1839.08199779.8341.52110.2140.53199878.4741.69107.4040.67199975.6740.86103.6140.00200075.4142.08100.9639.66200174.3342.0299.5838.81200272.8842.5996.0440.22200371.3442.2293.5940.25200469.8141.8991.2539.95200569.2241.5988.0440.15200667.2341.2485.0939.09200764.9741.1583.5838.16200863.7540.2379.6436.93200961.7739.8477.2235.99201060.8139.4474.8736.52201159.3138.9972.3136.02201257.8138.5469.7535.52201356.5738.0067.7934.95201455.3437.4665.8334.38201554.1136.9163.8733.81201652.8836.3761.9233.24201751.6535.8359.9632.67201850.7535.2858.6232.16201949.8634.7357.2931.65202048.9634.1855.9531.13Melanoma19752.881.740.560.4419763.101.940.740.3919773.171.930.690.4119783.321.900.610.4619793.462.020.640.4719803.411.900.550.5619813.452.070.560.5719823.641.990.560.4919833.632.040.630.4019843.792.030.450.5419853.822.060.580.4919863.922.090.700.3119874.132.020.570.5419884.072.130.530.4019894.152.100.570.5319904.212.200.650.4519914.312.020.650.5419924.272.060.570.4419934.312.060.420.5919944.262.030.440.4319954.352.020.510.4219964.502.140.510.3819974.412.050.490.5819984.591.980.450.5419994.271.980.520.3320004.282.030.600.5020014.381.990.350.4520024.251.960.500.3220034.391.970.440.4520044.481.940.570.3920054.542.060.490.4120064.631.970.630.3520074.531.920.540.4520084.611.890.460.3520094.772.050.550.3620104.581.940.510.3720114.571.920.510.3720124.561.910.500.3620134.531.890.500.3620144.501.880.500.3520154.471.860.490.3520164.441.850.490.3520174.411.830.490.3420184.371.810.480.3420194.321.790.480.3420204.271.780.480.34Oral Cavity and Pharynx19756.642.299.932.5219766.552.1710.552.6219776.672.2510.872.6519786.412.2110.692.6819796.252.3211.472.9719806.122.2212.482.7619815.962.1711.362.8419825.962.1311.462.9419835.732.1011.832.7619845.642.1211.702.3819855.442.0511.032.6219865.272.0711.352.9319875.012.009.952.5419885.141.9810.672.5519894.842.0010.442.5919905.071.9611.052.5219914.871.9510.062.7019924.661.899.972.3119934.681.8310.092.4419944.411.779.262.3919954.421.759.282.5419964.241.718.692.0719974.171.708.102.1919984.201.687.912.0919993.801.547.492.1220003.721.557.311.7620013.871.526.691.8120023.871.506.331.7320033.801.456.951.6520043.721.466.951.6320053.601.436.541.3820063.611.375.701.5020073.711.395.761.6020083.621.375.211.4720093.541.315.151.2320103.511.325.041.2920113.471.284.841.2420123.441.274.641.1920133.421.254.501.1520143.401.244.361.1120153.381.234.231.0720163.361.214.091.0320173.351.213.951.0020183.341.203.870.9720193.331.193.800.9420203.331.283.720.91Prostate197529.06—55.52—197629.93—55.60—197729.90—56.44—197830.62—58.49—197930.77—59.24—198030.77—61.99—198130.76—63.61—198231.09—62.36198331.57—64.55—198431.58—65.93—198531.28—67.26—198632.46—67.39—198732.57—68.88—198833.38—69.57—198934.54—71.71—199035.67—77.98—199136.50—78.24—199236.29—79.84—199336.26—81.86—199435.64—79.96—199534.41—78.20—199633.00—78.84—199731.35—74.30—199829.89—72.77—199928.91—70.13—200027.75—68.93—200126.87—67.86—200226.20—65.04—200324.85—60.48—200423.86—59.20—200523.15—57.29—200622.17—54.01—200722.05—55.27—200821.17—49.49—200920.22—50.00—201019.86—47.69—201119.24—45.89—201218.62—44.09—201318.27—43.02—201417.92—41.95—201517.57—40.88—201617.22—39.81—201716.86—38.74—201816.74—38.35—201916.61—37.95—202016.49—37.55—Abbreviation: —, not applicable.
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Figure 2: Trends in observed and predicted age-adjusted death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the Healthy People 2020 cancer mortality objectives by sex and race, 1975–2020.YearWhite MaleWhite FemaleBlack MaleBlack FemaleAll Cancer Sites Combined1975254.00158.99320.45174.181976257.50161.69328.45179.101977258.78161.61337.95181.601978261.64162.54340.91181.531979263.24161.69344.67182.731980265.02164.17353.91189.241981263.26164.55358.65187.471982266.28166.11364.86190.171983267.22166.69369.32193.241984267.55169.02377.93195.671985268.24169.58377.82196.311986268.83170.01378.92199.051987268.96169.87383.24199.911988269.46170.94384.17200.361989270.25172.88395.28200.871990271.48172.89399.14205.381991271.19173.41395.85207.391992268.91172.58389.20205.801993267.89172.82394.76206.291994264.73172.62385.20204.061995261.46171.73379.02204.531996256.83169.85373.70200.941997251.58167.35363.18202.531998247.62165.38353.13198.381999247.14165.92349.23197.542000243.31165.94341.48193.262001240.03163.52334.93192.182002237.25162.14327.14191.512003231.79159.81316.59188.812004226.30156.68309.94183.642005224.75155.18303.63181.132006219.98153.59293.91177.572007216.61150.84291.00175.782008213.29148.23280.09170.952009209.78146.46274.73168.172010206.52144.69268.96166.512011203.12142.66262.53163.832012199.72140.63256.09161.142013197.16138.94251.54158.882014194.59137.24246.99156.632015192.02135.54242.45154.372017186.88132.15233.35149.852018185.20130.87230.68148.282019183.53129.58228.00146.712020181.85128.30225.33145.15Cervix Uteri1975—4.75—13.351976—4.68—12.861977—4.22—12.191978—4.15—11.641979—3.95—10.611980—3.77—10.781981—3.74—9.891982—3.51—9.771983—3.43—9.761984—3.36—9.271985—3.27—8.981986—3.22—9.231987—3.13—8.221988—3.10—8.151989—3.05—8.601990—3.19—7.771991—3.01—7.651992—3.01—8.071993—2.95—7.691994—3.00—6.711995—2.82—6.981996—2.87—6.201997—2.76—6.471998—2.65—5.911999—2.57—5.412000—2.47—5.432001—2.43—4.832002—2.28—4.982003—2.23—4.662004—2.18—4.522005—2.21—4.382006—2.21—4.342007—2.20—4.332008—2.17—4.192009—2.07—4.192010—2.09—4.012011—2.06—3.912012—2.03—3.822013—2.01—3.772014—2.00—3.722015—1.98—3.672016—1.96—3.622017—1.95—3.572018—1.94—3.552019—1.94—3.542020—1.93—3.53Colon and Rectum197533.2425.0630.0924.55197633.7625.4531.1626.26197733.4924.9731.4424.93197834.1225.1731.2025.66197933.9224.5731.5725.96198033.9924.3233.1825.89198133.1623.8532.8326.32198233.1123.4233.7126.12198333.3223.1132.9025.82198433.1223.4934.6526.22198532.7422.7734.1028.04198632.0122.0735.3626.35198731.8521.6335.1026.48198831.0421.1634.2925.88198930.5220.8236.3726.07199030.4320.1837.6426.59199129.3519.8535.8026.50199228.9919.4236.2325.43199328.1819.2835.8426.04199427.8918.8435.6624.88199527.1618.6436.3025.47199626.2917.9834.5224.86199725.6817.5935.0724.80199825.1317.4833.9024.78199924.9917.2034.5024.70200024.4517.0135.0123.89200123.8016.4833.4724.25200223.3416.0633.8622.95200322.5715.5132.7122.91200421.2314.7230.8721.41200520.5614.1331.2121.42200620.0214.1231.6520.29200719.6413.7329.7619.88200818.9813.3629.2818.97200918.5912.6827.5718.59201018.0012.5328.4818.33201117.4912.1728.0317.84201216.9911.8227.5717.36201316.6711.6027.2617.03201416.3611.3726.9516.70201516.0511.1526.6416.38201615.7410.9326.3216.05201715.4310.7126.0115.73201815.3110.6025.8915.57201915.1810.5025.7715.42202015.0610.4025.6515.27Female Breast1975—31.79—29.491976—32.17—30.471977—32.67—32.801978—31.90—32.141979—31.48—30.821980—31.93—31.681981—32.12—32.551982—32.31—33.751983—32.20—33.531984—32.90—35.941985—33.11—34.851986—32.93—35.441987—32.57—36.731988—33.09—37.781989—33.23—36.611990—33.02—38.001991—32.45—38.281992—31.43—37.091993—31.09—38.041994—30.56—37.741995—30.09—38.181996—29.05—37.131997—27.62—37.431998—27.01—35.531999—25.98—35.212000—26.17—34.382001—25.40—34.562002—24.97—34.202003—24.58—34.192004—23.85—32.422005—23.39—32.992006—22.92—31.802007—22.28—31.582008—21.85—31.222009—21.65—30.492010—21.01—30.222011—20.55—29.772012—20.08—29.312013—19.74—28.962014—19.40—28.602015—19.06—28.252016—18.72—27.892017—18.38—27.542018—18.16—27.302019—17.94—27.062020—17.73—26.82Lung and Bronchus197575.4717.6791.0117.34197677.5519.1093.9618.51197779.0920.09100.8019.91197880.7621.58101.6520.66197981.6422.42102.8922.24198083.2724.22106.6724.58198183.5225.10109.7125.10198285.1826.72112.5526.30198385.4028.28112.7628.73198486.2429.27117.9827.98198586.6930.81117.5029.64198687.0331.76119.1831.00198788.0933.04121.7732.48198887.8634.57122.1533.54198987.5736.27124.7234.87199088.4037.31125.1736.48199187.7638.12123.5837.16199285.9839.21121.0638.55199385.5239.97121.9837.72199483.7840.30118.6338.61199582.6240.97116.0838.84199681.1541.22113.1839.08199779.8341.52110.2140.53199878.4741.69107.4040.67199975.6740.86103.6140.00200075.4142.08100.9639.66200174.3342.0299.5838.81200272.8842.5996.0440.22200371.3442.2293.5940.25200469.8141.8991.2539.95200569.2241.5988.0440.15200667.2341.2485.0939.09200764.9741.1583.5838.16200863.7540.2379.6436.93200961.7739.8477.2235.99201060.8139.4474.8736.52201159.3138.9972.3136.02201257.8138.5469.7535.52201356.5738.0067.7934.95201455.3437.4665.8334.38201554.1136.9163.8733.81201652.8836.3761.9233.24201751.6535.8359.9632.67201850.7535.2858.6232.16201949.8634.7357.2931.65202048.9634.1855.9531.13Melanoma19752.881.740.560.4419763.101.940.740.3919773.171.930.690.4119783.321.900.610.4619793.462.020.640.4719803.411.900.550.5619813.452.070.560.5719823.641.990.560.4919833.632.040.630.4019843.792.030.450.5419853.822.060.580.4919863.922.090.700.3119874.132.020.570.5419884.072.130.530.4019894.152.100.570.5319904.212.200.650.4519914.312.020.650.5419924.272.060.570.4419934.312.060.420.5919944.262.030.440.4319954.352.020.510.4219964.502.140.510.3819974.412.050.490.5819984.591.980.450.5419994.271.980.520.3320004.282.030.600.5020014.381.990.350.4520024.251.960.500.3220034.391.970.440.4520044.481.940.570.3920054.542.060.490.4120064.631.970.630.3520074.531.920.540.4520084.611.890.460.3520094.772.050.550.3620104.581.940.510.3720114.571.920.510.3720124.561.910.500.3620134.531.890.500.3620144.501.880.500.3520154.471.860.490.3520164.441.850.490.3520174.411.830.490.3420184.371.810.480.3420194.321.790.480.3420204.271.780.480.34Oral Cavity and Pharynx19756.642.299.932.5219766.552.1710.552.6219776.672.2510.872.6519786.412.2110.692.6819796.252.3211.472.9719806.122.2212.482.7619815.962.1711.362.8419825.962.1311.462.9419835.732.1011.832.7619845.642.1211.702.3819855.442.0511.032.6219865.272.0711.352.9319875.012.009.952.5419885.141.9810.672.5519894.842.0010.442.5919905.071.9611.052.5219914.871.9510.062.7019924.661.899.972.3119934.681.8310.092.4419944.411.779.262.3919954.421.759.282.5419964.241.718.692.0719974.171.708.102.1919984.201.687.912.0919993.801.547.492.1220003.721.557.311.7620013.871.526.691.8120023.871.506.331.7320033.801.456.951.6520043.721.466.951.6320053.601.436.541.3820063.611.375.701.5020073.711.395.761.6020083.621.375.211.4720093.541.315.151.2320103.511.325.041.2920113.471.284.841.2420123.441.274.641.1920133.421.254.501.1520143.401.244.361.1120153.381.234.231.0720163.361.214.091.0320173.351.213.951.0020183.341.203.870.9720193.331.193.800.9420203.331.283.720.91Prostate197529.06—55.52—197629.93—55.60—197729.90—56.44—197830.62—58.49—197930.77—59.24—198030.77—61.99—198130.76—63.61—198231.09—62.36198331.57—64.55—198431.58—65.93—198531.28—67.26—198632.46—67.39—198732.57—68.88—198833.38—69.57—198934.54—71.71—199035.67—77.98—199136.50—78.24—199236.29—79.84—199336.26—81.86—199435.64—79.96—199534.41—78.20—199633.00—78.84—199731.35—74.30—199829.89—72.77—199928.91—70.13—200027.75—68.93—200126.87—67.86—200226.20—65.04—200324.85—60.48—200423.86—59.20—200523.15—57.29—200622.17—54.01—200722.05—55.27—200821.17—49.49—200920.22—50.00—201019.86—47.69—201119.24—45.89—201218.62—44.09—201318.27—43.02—201417.92—41.95—201517.57—40.88—201617.22—39.81—201716.86—38.74—201816.74—38.35—201916.61—37.95—202016.49—37.55—Abbreviation: —, not applicable.

Mentions: Figure 2shows 1975 through 2009 (observed) and 2010 through 2020 (predicted) age-standardized cancer death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the cancer mortality objectives for Healthy People 2020. (Additional information can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/articles/cancer_2020_figures.htm.) Table 2 shows predicted 2020 deaths by race (all races combined, white, black), sex, and cancer site, with the percentage change in deaths from 2007 (baseline) and 2020 apportioned because of changes in risk and demographics (population growth and aging combined). By 2020, we predict cancer deaths to increase 15.2% among men (−23.0% attributable to risk, 38.2% attributable to demographics) and begin to stabilize (8.1%) among women (−19.5% attributable to risk, 27.6% attributable to demographics). Results varied by cancer site, sex, and race. We predict that cancer risk will decrease for 13 of 19 cancers among men and 15 of 21 cancers in women, while the number of deaths will increase for 11 of 19 cancer sites among men and 9 of 21 cancer sites among women, in large part because of the demographic component. We predict that risk of death will increase for cancers of the corpus and uterus among black women, liver and intrahepatic bile duct among both men and women (both races), and for thyroid cancer in women (both races). We predict that the number of deaths for colorectal cancer and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma will decrease among white women, for esophageal cancer among black men and women, Hodgkin’s lymphoma among white men and women, laryngeal cancer among black men, and cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx among black women.


Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality.

Weir HK, Thompson TD, Soman A, Møller B, Leadbetter S, White MC - Prev Chronic Dis (2015)

Trends in observed and predicted age-adjusted death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the Healthy People 2020 cancer mortality objectives by sex and race, 1975–2020.YearWhite MaleWhite FemaleBlack MaleBlack FemaleAll Cancer Sites Combined1975254.00158.99320.45174.181976257.50161.69328.45179.101977258.78161.61337.95181.601978261.64162.54340.91181.531979263.24161.69344.67182.731980265.02164.17353.91189.241981263.26164.55358.65187.471982266.28166.11364.86190.171983267.22166.69369.32193.241984267.55169.02377.93195.671985268.24169.58377.82196.311986268.83170.01378.92199.051987268.96169.87383.24199.911988269.46170.94384.17200.361989270.25172.88395.28200.871990271.48172.89399.14205.381991271.19173.41395.85207.391992268.91172.58389.20205.801993267.89172.82394.76206.291994264.73172.62385.20204.061995261.46171.73379.02204.531996256.83169.85373.70200.941997251.58167.35363.18202.531998247.62165.38353.13198.381999247.14165.92349.23197.542000243.31165.94341.48193.262001240.03163.52334.93192.182002237.25162.14327.14191.512003231.79159.81316.59188.812004226.30156.68309.94183.642005224.75155.18303.63181.132006219.98153.59293.91177.572007216.61150.84291.00175.782008213.29148.23280.09170.952009209.78146.46274.73168.172010206.52144.69268.96166.512011203.12142.66262.53163.832012199.72140.63256.09161.142013197.16138.94251.54158.882014194.59137.24246.99156.632015192.02135.54242.45154.372017186.88132.15233.35149.852018185.20130.87230.68148.282019183.53129.58228.00146.712020181.85128.30225.33145.15Cervix Uteri1975—4.75—13.351976—4.68—12.861977—4.22—12.191978—4.15—11.641979—3.95—10.611980—3.77—10.781981—3.74—9.891982—3.51—9.771983—3.43—9.761984—3.36—9.271985—3.27—8.981986—3.22—9.231987—3.13—8.221988—3.10—8.151989—3.05—8.601990—3.19—7.771991—3.01—7.651992—3.01—8.071993—2.95—7.691994—3.00—6.711995—2.82—6.981996—2.87—6.201997—2.76—6.471998—2.65—5.911999—2.57—5.412000—2.47—5.432001—2.43—4.832002—2.28—4.982003—2.23—4.662004—2.18—4.522005—2.21—4.382006—2.21—4.342007—2.20—4.332008—2.17—4.192009—2.07—4.192010—2.09—4.012011—2.06—3.912012—2.03—3.822013—2.01—3.772014—2.00—3.722015—1.98—3.672016—1.96—3.622017—1.95—3.572018—1.94—3.552019—1.94—3.542020—1.93—3.53Colon and Rectum197533.2425.0630.0924.55197633.7625.4531.1626.26197733.4924.9731.4424.93197834.1225.1731.2025.66197933.9224.5731.5725.96198033.9924.3233.1825.89198133.1623.8532.8326.32198233.1123.4233.7126.12198333.3223.1132.9025.82198433.1223.4934.6526.22198532.7422.7734.1028.04198632.0122.0735.3626.35198731.8521.6335.1026.48198831.0421.1634.2925.88198930.5220.8236.3726.07199030.4320.1837.6426.59199129.3519.8535.8026.50199228.9919.4236.2325.43199328.1819.2835.8426.04199427.8918.8435.6624.88199527.1618.6436.3025.47199626.2917.9834.5224.86199725.6817.5935.0724.80199825.1317.4833.9024.78199924.9917.2034.5024.70200024.4517.0135.0123.89200123.8016.4833.4724.25200223.3416.0633.8622.95200322.5715.5132.7122.91200421.2314.7230.8721.41200520.5614.1331.2121.42200620.0214.1231.6520.29200719.6413.7329.7619.88200818.9813.3629.2818.97200918.5912.6827.5718.59201018.0012.5328.4818.33201117.4912.1728.0317.84201216.9911.8227.5717.36201316.6711.6027.2617.03201416.3611.3726.9516.70201516.0511.1526.6416.38201615.7410.9326.3216.05201715.4310.7126.0115.73201815.3110.6025.8915.57201915.1810.5025.7715.42202015.0610.4025.6515.27Female Breast1975—31.79—29.491976—32.17—30.471977—32.67—32.801978—31.90—32.141979—31.48—30.821980—31.93—31.681981—32.12—32.551982—32.31—33.751983—32.20—33.531984—32.90—35.941985—33.11—34.851986—32.93—35.441987—32.57—36.731988—33.09—37.781989—33.23—36.611990—33.02—38.001991—32.45—38.281992—31.43—37.091993—31.09—38.041994—30.56—37.741995—30.09—38.181996—29.05—37.131997—27.62—37.431998—27.01—35.531999—25.98—35.212000—26.17—34.382001—25.40—34.562002—24.97—34.202003—24.58—34.192004—23.85—32.422005—23.39—32.992006—22.92—31.802007—22.28—31.582008—21.85—31.222009—21.65—30.492010—21.01—30.222011—20.55—29.772012—20.08—29.312013—19.74—28.962014—19.40—28.602015—19.06—28.252016—18.72—27.892017—18.38—27.542018—18.16—27.302019—17.94—27.062020—17.73—26.82Lung and Bronchus197575.4717.6791.0117.34197677.5519.1093.9618.51197779.0920.09100.8019.91197880.7621.58101.6520.66197981.6422.42102.8922.24198083.2724.22106.6724.58198183.5225.10109.7125.10198285.1826.72112.5526.30198385.4028.28112.7628.73198486.2429.27117.9827.98198586.6930.81117.5029.64198687.0331.76119.1831.00198788.0933.04121.7732.48198887.8634.57122.1533.54198987.5736.27124.7234.87199088.4037.31125.1736.48199187.7638.12123.5837.16199285.9839.21121.0638.55199385.5239.97121.9837.72199483.7840.30118.6338.61199582.6240.97116.0838.84199681.1541.22113.1839.08199779.8341.52110.2140.53199878.4741.69107.4040.67199975.6740.86103.6140.00200075.4142.08100.9639.66200174.3342.0299.5838.81200272.8842.5996.0440.22200371.3442.2293.5940.25200469.8141.8991.2539.95200569.2241.5988.0440.15200667.2341.2485.0939.09200764.9741.1583.5838.16200863.7540.2379.6436.93200961.7739.8477.2235.99201060.8139.4474.8736.52201159.3138.9972.3136.02201257.8138.5469.7535.52201356.5738.0067.7934.95201455.3437.4665.8334.38201554.1136.9163.8733.81201652.8836.3761.9233.24201751.6535.8359.9632.67201850.7535.2858.6232.16201949.8634.7357.2931.65202048.9634.1855.9531.13Melanoma19752.881.740.560.4419763.101.940.740.3919773.171.930.690.4119783.321.900.610.4619793.462.020.640.4719803.411.900.550.5619813.452.070.560.5719823.641.990.560.4919833.632.040.630.4019843.792.030.450.5419853.822.060.580.4919863.922.090.700.3119874.132.020.570.5419884.072.130.530.4019894.152.100.570.5319904.212.200.650.4519914.312.020.650.5419924.272.060.570.4419934.312.060.420.5919944.262.030.440.4319954.352.020.510.4219964.502.140.510.3819974.412.050.490.5819984.591.980.450.5419994.271.980.520.3320004.282.030.600.5020014.381.990.350.4520024.251.960.500.3220034.391.970.440.4520044.481.940.570.3920054.542.060.490.4120064.631.970.630.3520074.531.920.540.4520084.611.890.460.3520094.772.050.550.3620104.581.940.510.3720114.571.920.510.3720124.561.910.500.3620134.531.890.500.3620144.501.880.500.3520154.471.860.490.3520164.441.850.490.3520174.411.830.490.3420184.371.810.480.3420194.321.790.480.3420204.271.780.480.34Oral Cavity and Pharynx19756.642.299.932.5219766.552.1710.552.6219776.672.2510.872.6519786.412.2110.692.6819796.252.3211.472.9719806.122.2212.482.7619815.962.1711.362.8419825.962.1311.462.9419835.732.1011.832.7619845.642.1211.702.3819855.442.0511.032.6219865.272.0711.352.9319875.012.009.952.5419885.141.9810.672.5519894.842.0010.442.5919905.071.9611.052.5219914.871.9510.062.7019924.661.899.972.3119934.681.8310.092.4419944.411.779.262.3919954.421.759.282.5419964.241.718.692.0719974.171.708.102.1919984.201.687.912.0919993.801.547.492.1220003.721.557.311.7620013.871.526.691.8120023.871.506.331.7320033.801.456.951.6520043.721.466.951.6320053.601.436.541.3820063.611.375.701.5020073.711.395.761.6020083.621.375.211.4720093.541.315.151.2320103.511.325.041.2920113.471.284.841.2420123.441.274.641.1920133.421.254.501.1520143.401.244.361.1120153.381.234.231.0720163.361.214.091.0320173.351.213.951.0020183.341.203.870.9720193.331.193.800.9420203.331.283.720.91Prostate197529.06—55.52—197629.93—55.60—197729.90—56.44—197830.62—58.49—197930.77—59.24—198030.77—61.99—198130.76—63.61—198231.09—62.36198331.57—64.55—198431.58—65.93—198531.28—67.26—198632.46—67.39—198732.57—68.88—198833.38—69.57—198934.54—71.71—199035.67—77.98—199136.50—78.24—199236.29—79.84—199336.26—81.86—199435.64—79.96—199534.41—78.20—199633.00—78.84—199731.35—74.30—199829.89—72.77—199928.91—70.13—200027.75—68.93—200126.87—67.86—200226.20—65.04—200324.85—60.48—200423.86—59.20—200523.15—57.29—200622.17—54.01—200722.05—55.27—200821.17—49.49—200920.22—50.00—201019.86—47.69—201119.24—45.89—201218.62—44.09—201318.27—43.02—201417.92—41.95—201517.57—40.88—201617.22—39.81—201716.86—38.74—201816.74—38.35—201916.61—37.95—202016.49—37.55—Abbreviation: —, not applicable.
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Figure 2: Trends in observed and predicted age-adjusted death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the Healthy People 2020 cancer mortality objectives by sex and race, 1975–2020.YearWhite MaleWhite FemaleBlack MaleBlack FemaleAll Cancer Sites Combined1975254.00158.99320.45174.181976257.50161.69328.45179.101977258.78161.61337.95181.601978261.64162.54340.91181.531979263.24161.69344.67182.731980265.02164.17353.91189.241981263.26164.55358.65187.471982266.28166.11364.86190.171983267.22166.69369.32193.241984267.55169.02377.93195.671985268.24169.58377.82196.311986268.83170.01378.92199.051987268.96169.87383.24199.911988269.46170.94384.17200.361989270.25172.88395.28200.871990271.48172.89399.14205.381991271.19173.41395.85207.391992268.91172.58389.20205.801993267.89172.82394.76206.291994264.73172.62385.20204.061995261.46171.73379.02204.531996256.83169.85373.70200.941997251.58167.35363.18202.531998247.62165.38353.13198.381999247.14165.92349.23197.542000243.31165.94341.48193.262001240.03163.52334.93192.182002237.25162.14327.14191.512003231.79159.81316.59188.812004226.30156.68309.94183.642005224.75155.18303.63181.132006219.98153.59293.91177.572007216.61150.84291.00175.782008213.29148.23280.09170.952009209.78146.46274.73168.172010206.52144.69268.96166.512011203.12142.66262.53163.832012199.72140.63256.09161.142013197.16138.94251.54158.882014194.59137.24246.99156.632015192.02135.54242.45154.372017186.88132.15233.35149.852018185.20130.87230.68148.282019183.53129.58228.00146.712020181.85128.30225.33145.15Cervix Uteri1975—4.75—13.351976—4.68—12.861977—4.22—12.191978—4.15—11.641979—3.95—10.611980—3.77—10.781981—3.74—9.891982—3.51—9.771983—3.43—9.761984—3.36—9.271985—3.27—8.981986—3.22—9.231987—3.13—8.221988—3.10—8.151989—3.05—8.601990—3.19—7.771991—3.01—7.651992—3.01—8.071993—2.95—7.691994—3.00—6.711995—2.82—6.981996—2.87—6.201997—2.76—6.471998—2.65—5.911999—2.57—5.412000—2.47—5.432001—2.43—4.832002—2.28—4.982003—2.23—4.662004—2.18—4.522005—2.21—4.382006—2.21—4.342007—2.20—4.332008—2.17—4.192009—2.07—4.192010—2.09—4.012011—2.06—3.912012—2.03—3.822013—2.01—3.772014—2.00—3.722015—1.98—3.672016—1.96—3.622017—1.95—3.572018—1.94—3.552019—1.94—3.542020—1.93—3.53Colon and Rectum197533.2425.0630.0924.55197633.7625.4531.1626.26197733.4924.9731.4424.93197834.1225.1731.2025.66197933.9224.5731.5725.96198033.9924.3233.1825.89198133.1623.8532.8326.32198233.1123.4233.7126.12198333.3223.1132.9025.82198433.1223.4934.6526.22198532.7422.7734.1028.04198632.0122.0735.3626.35198731.8521.6335.1026.48198831.0421.1634.2925.88198930.5220.8236.3726.07199030.4320.1837.6426.59199129.3519.8535.8026.50199228.9919.4236.2325.43199328.1819.2835.8426.04199427.8918.8435.6624.88199527.1618.6436.3025.47199626.2917.9834.5224.86199725.6817.5935.0724.80199825.1317.4833.9024.78199924.9917.2034.5024.70200024.4517.0135.0123.89200123.8016.4833.4724.25200223.3416.0633.8622.95200322.5715.5132.7122.91200421.2314.7230.8721.41200520.5614.1331.2121.42200620.0214.1231.6520.29200719.6413.7329.7619.88200818.9813.3629.2818.97200918.5912.6827.5718.59201018.0012.5328.4818.33201117.4912.1728.0317.84201216.9911.8227.5717.36201316.6711.6027.2617.03201416.3611.3726.9516.70201516.0511.1526.6416.38201615.7410.9326.3216.05201715.4310.7126.0115.73201815.3110.6025.8915.57201915.1810.5025.7715.42202015.0610.4025.6515.27Female Breast1975—31.79—29.491976—32.17—30.471977—32.67—32.801978—31.90—32.141979—31.48—30.821980—31.93—31.681981—32.12—32.551982—32.31—33.751983—32.20—33.531984—32.90—35.941985—33.11—34.851986—32.93—35.441987—32.57—36.731988—33.09—37.781989—33.23—36.611990—33.02—38.001991—32.45—38.281992—31.43—37.091993—31.09—38.041994—30.56—37.741995—30.09—38.181996—29.05—37.131997—27.62—37.431998—27.01—35.531999—25.98—35.212000—26.17—34.382001—25.40—34.562002—24.97—34.202003—24.58—34.192004—23.85—32.422005—23.39—32.992006—22.92—31.802007—22.28—31.582008—21.85—31.222009—21.65—30.492010—21.01—30.222011—20.55—29.772012—20.08—29.312013—19.74—28.962014—19.40—28.602015—19.06—28.252016—18.72—27.892017—18.38—27.542018—18.16—27.302019—17.94—27.062020—17.73—26.82Lung and Bronchus197575.4717.6791.0117.34197677.5519.1093.9618.51197779.0920.09100.8019.91197880.7621.58101.6520.66197981.6422.42102.8922.24198083.2724.22106.6724.58198183.5225.10109.7125.10198285.1826.72112.5526.30198385.4028.28112.7628.73198486.2429.27117.9827.98198586.6930.81117.5029.64198687.0331.76119.1831.00198788.0933.04121.7732.48198887.8634.57122.1533.54198987.5736.27124.7234.87199088.4037.31125.1736.48199187.7638.12123.5837.16199285.9839.21121.0638.55199385.5239.97121.9837.72199483.7840.30118.6338.61199582.6240.97116.0838.84199681.1541.22113.1839.08199779.8341.52110.2140.53199878.4741.69107.4040.67199975.6740.86103.6140.00200075.4142.08100.9639.66200174.3342.0299.5838.81200272.8842.5996.0440.22200371.3442.2293.5940.25200469.8141.8991.2539.95200569.2241.5988.0440.15200667.2341.2485.0939.09200764.9741.1583.5838.16200863.7540.2379.6436.93200961.7739.8477.2235.99201060.8139.4474.8736.52201159.3138.9972.3136.02201257.8138.5469.7535.52201356.5738.0067.7934.95201455.3437.4665.8334.38201554.1136.9163.8733.81201652.8836.3761.9233.24201751.6535.8359.9632.67201850.7535.2858.6232.16201949.8634.7357.2931.65202048.9634.1855.9531.13Melanoma19752.881.740.560.4419763.101.940.740.3919773.171.930.690.4119783.321.900.610.4619793.462.020.640.4719803.411.900.550.5619813.452.070.560.5719823.641.990.560.4919833.632.040.630.4019843.792.030.450.5419853.822.060.580.4919863.922.090.700.3119874.132.020.570.5419884.072.130.530.4019894.152.100.570.5319904.212.200.650.4519914.312.020.650.5419924.272.060.570.4419934.312.060.420.5919944.262.030.440.4319954.352.020.510.4219964.502.140.510.3819974.412.050.490.5819984.591.980.450.5419994.271.980.520.3320004.282.030.600.5020014.381.990.350.4520024.251.960.500.3220034.391.970.440.4520044.481.940.570.3920054.542.060.490.4120064.631.970.630.3520074.531.920.540.4520084.611.890.460.3520094.772.050.550.3620104.581.940.510.3720114.571.920.510.3720124.561.910.500.3620134.531.890.500.3620144.501.880.500.3520154.471.860.490.3520164.441.850.490.3520174.411.830.490.3420184.371.810.480.3420194.321.790.480.3420204.271.780.480.34Oral Cavity and Pharynx19756.642.299.932.5219766.552.1710.552.6219776.672.2510.872.6519786.412.2110.692.6819796.252.3211.472.9719806.122.2212.482.7619815.962.1711.362.8419825.962.1311.462.9419835.732.1011.832.7619845.642.1211.702.3819855.442.0511.032.6219865.272.0711.352.9319875.012.009.952.5419885.141.9810.672.5519894.842.0010.442.5919905.071.9611.052.5219914.871.9510.062.7019924.661.899.972.3119934.681.8310.092.4419944.411.779.262.3919954.421.759.282.5419964.241.718.692.0719974.171.708.102.1919984.201.687.912.0919993.801.547.492.1220003.721.557.311.7620013.871.526.691.8120023.871.506.331.7320033.801.456.951.6520043.721.466.951.6320053.601.436.541.3820063.611.375.701.5020073.711.395.761.6020083.621.375.211.4720093.541.315.151.2320103.511.325.041.2920113.471.284.841.2420123.441.274.641.1920133.421.254.501.1520143.401.244.361.1120153.381.234.231.0720163.361.214.091.0320173.351.213.951.0020183.341.203.870.9720193.331.193.800.9420203.331.283.720.91Prostate197529.06—55.52—197629.93—55.60—197729.90—56.44—197830.62—58.49—197930.77—59.24—198030.77—61.99—198130.76—63.61—198231.09—62.36198331.57—64.55—198431.58—65.93—198531.28—67.26—198632.46—67.39—198732.57—68.88—198833.38—69.57—198934.54—71.71—199035.67—77.98—199136.50—78.24—199236.29—79.84—199336.26—81.86—199435.64—79.96—199534.41—78.20—199633.00—78.84—199731.35—74.30—199829.89—72.77—199928.91—70.13—200027.75—68.93—200126.87—67.86—200226.20—65.04—200324.85—60.48—200423.86—59.20—200523.15—57.29—200622.17—54.01—200722.05—55.27—200821.17—49.49—200920.22—50.00—201019.86—47.69—201119.24—45.89—201218.62—44.09—201318.27—43.02—201417.92—41.95—201517.57—40.88—201617.22—39.81—201716.86—38.74—201816.74—38.35—201916.61—37.95—202016.49—37.55—Abbreviation: —, not applicable.
Mentions: Figure 2shows 1975 through 2009 (observed) and 2010 through 2020 (predicted) age-standardized cancer death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the cancer mortality objectives for Healthy People 2020. (Additional information can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/articles/cancer_2020_figures.htm.) Table 2 shows predicted 2020 deaths by race (all races combined, white, black), sex, and cancer site, with the percentage change in deaths from 2007 (baseline) and 2020 apportioned because of changes in risk and demographics (population growth and aging combined). By 2020, we predict cancer deaths to increase 15.2% among men (−23.0% attributable to risk, 38.2% attributable to demographics) and begin to stabilize (8.1%) among women (−19.5% attributable to risk, 27.6% attributable to demographics). Results varied by cancer site, sex, and race. We predict that cancer risk will decrease for 13 of 19 cancers among men and 15 of 21 cancers in women, while the number of deaths will increase for 11 of 19 cancer sites among men and 9 of 21 cancer sites among women, in large part because of the demographic component. We predict that risk of death will increase for cancers of the corpus and uterus among black women, liver and intrahepatic bile duct among both men and women (both races), and for thyroid cancer in women (both races). We predict that the number of deaths for colorectal cancer and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma will decrease among white women, for esophageal cancer among black men and women, Hodgkin’s lymphoma among white men and women, laryngeal cancer among black men, and cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx among black women.

Bottom Line: We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%).Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Epidemiology and Applied Research Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy, Mailstop F76, Atlanta, GA 30341. Email: hbw4@cdc.gov.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Healthy People 2020 (HP2020) calls for a 10% to 15% reduction in death rates from 2007 to 2020 for selected cancers. Trends in death rates can be used to predict progress toward meeting HP2020 targets.

Methods: We used mortality data from 1975 through 2009 and population estimates and projections to predict deaths for all cancers and the top 23 cancers among men and women by race. We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.

Results: From 1975 to 2009, the number of cancer deaths increased among white and black Americans primarily because of an aging white population and a growing black population. Overall, age-standardized cancer death rates (risk) declined in all groups. From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%). Declining death rates are predicted to meet HP2020 targets for cancers of the female breast, lung and bronchus, cervix and uterus, colon and rectum, oral cavity and pharynx, and prostate, but not for melanoma.

Conclusion: Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women. Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging population on the cancer burden and to meet melanoma target death rates.

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