Limits...
Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality.

Weir HK, Thompson TD, Soman A, Møller B, Leadbetter S, White MC - Prev Chronic Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%).Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Epidemiology and Applied Research Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy, Mailstop F76, Atlanta, GA 30341. Email: hbw4@cdc.gov.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Healthy People 2020 (HP2020) calls for a 10% to 15% reduction in death rates from 2007 to 2020 for selected cancers. Trends in death rates can be used to predict progress toward meeting HP2020 targets.

Methods: We used mortality data from 1975 through 2009 and population estimates and projections to predict deaths for all cancers and the top 23 cancers among men and women by race. We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.

Results: From 1975 to 2009, the number of cancer deaths increased among white and black Americans primarily because of an aging white population and a growing black population. Overall, age-standardized cancer death rates (risk) declined in all groups. From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%). Declining death rates are predicted to meet HP2020 targets for cancers of the female breast, lung and bronchus, cervix and uterus, colon and rectum, oral cavity and pharynx, and prostate, but not for melanoma.

Conclusion: Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women. Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging population on the cancer burden and to meet melanoma target death rates.

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Trends in deaths from all cancers combined attributed to population risk (including diagnostic and treatment practices), growth, and aging (1975–2009), by sex and race (white, black).Year of Diagnosis1975 Cancer DeathsPopulation AgingPopulation GrowthPopulation Risk1975 Cancer Deaths in White Males1975175,299175,299175,299175,2991976175,299180,269178,746177,3521977175,299184,261180,914178,0521978175,299189,013183,867179,4111979175,299193,447186,412180,2531980175,299198,189188,928181,2931981175,299199,373188,719179,7331982175,299204,473191,831181,3871983175,299208,060193,615181,7511984175,299211,373195,255182,0561985175,299215,088197,098182,5021986175,299218,383198,756182,6691987175,299221,766200,276182,7771988175,299224,520201,280182,3931989175,299228,317202,921182,5171990175,299232,617205,291182,9011991175,299236,430206,933182,2831992175,299238,504206,996180,1761993175,299241,940208,120179,1681994175,299243,012207,603176,8871995175,299244,026206,278173,9721996175,299243,970204,708170,9581997175,299243,212202,090167,0471998175,299244,124200,983164,4621999175,299247,392201,753163,4762000175,299247,396200,120160,6682001175,299248,142199,105158,3972002175,299249,864198,171156,3492003175,299249,045191,520152,6272004175,299247,446191,700148,8682005175,299250,475191,520147,5292006175,299250,318189,252144,5482007175,299252,047184,752141,9432008175,299254,119186,712140,1842009175,299255,040184,752137,6861975 Cancer Deaths in White Females1975148,711148,711148,711148,7111976148,711153,688152,569151,3771977148,711157,052153,985151,4781978148,711161,273156,378152,4311979148,711163,890157,147151,7601980148,711169,970160,982154,1971981148,711173,307162,654154,6701982148,711178,167165,506156,2851983148,711181,950167,359156,9961984148,711187,266170,715159,1711985148,711190,649172,523159,8601986148,711193,967174,107160,3011987148,711196,727175,124160,2501988148,711200,633177,296161,2421989148,711205,867180,475163,0991990148,711208,986181,889163,0261991148,711213,108184,329163,5621992148,711216,036185,438162,8931993148,711219,997187,521163,1161994148,711222,817189,061162,9631995148,711224,905189,505161,9271996148,711225,471189,125160,2311997148,711225,336187,794157,7031998148,711226,051187,187155,8541999148,711229,839189,280156,3122000148,711232,608190,664156,2692001148,711231,505188,998153,7592002148,711232,613188,708152,4452003148,711232,500187,329150,3072004148,711230,682184,914147,3802005148,711231,652184,070145,7222006148,711232,251183,502144,2532007148,711231,888181,551141,6492008148,711231,767179,705139,2412009148,711231,947178,483137,4271975 Cancer Deaths in Black Males197521,88421,88421,88421,884197621,88422,74822,67322,358197721,88423,61623,44822,829197821,88424,24923,98723,055197921,88424,82724,49023,196198021,88425,85525,75023,725198121,88426,47026,40524,004198221,88427,21727,12724,330198321,88427,92727,80324,613198421,88428,84828,73925,128198521,88429,02228,96425,005198621,88429,36029,34324,994198721,88429,92129,92725,157198821,88430,31930,37925,196198921,88431,45031,58225,825199021,88431,99332,26125,937199121,88432,08932,38625,498199221,88432,15632,53825,035199321,88433,06933,42325,188199421,88432,85833,20524,548199521,88432,87833,10124,037199621,88432,97333,06623,608199721,88432,71732,60722,876199821,88432,52132,16422,181199921,88432,84932,28621,892200021,88432,81531,90621,292200121,88432,67631,60320,808200221,88432,62531,27220,341200321,88432,44230,57519,682200421,88432,44130,29919,252200521,88432,72430,09418,881200621,88432,55529,54118,284200721,88433,06729,56418,041200821,88433,01829,03117,477200921,88433,44128,96817,2181975 Cancer Deaths in Black Females197515,74715,74715,74715,747197615,74716,40816,28516,034197715,74717,19716,89716,385197815,74717,55917,07516,307197915,74718,14717,49916,440198015,74719,17318,50416,940198115,74719,34618,55216,756198215,74720,08619,11817,030198315,74720,80319,64817,277198415,74721,40720,09517,455198515,74721,87420,38117,484198615,74722,61020,95517,750198715,74723,09321,28617,797198815,74723,64421,63417,845198915,74724,11421,98517,885199015,74725,08222,82418,271199115,74725,82623,35618,316199215,74726,24523,78318,269199315,74726,79624,15418,189199415,74727,07724,32617,979199515,74727,72324,80618,021199615,74727,79324,69517,649199715,74728,61625,22317,729199815,74728,67225,12417,377199915,74729,10125,31917,243200015,74729,12725,04916,819200115,74729,49025,19816,720200215,74729,98925,33016,622200315,74730,21825,16316,344200415,74730,05624,84615,966200515,74730,43724,71615,708200615,74730,52624,53015,411200715,74730,97824,64115,288200815,74730,93424,30914,862200915,74731,20424,19514,624
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Figure 1: Trends in deaths from all cancers combined attributed to population risk (including diagnostic and treatment practices), growth, and aging (1975–2009), by sex and race (white, black).Year of Diagnosis1975 Cancer DeathsPopulation AgingPopulation GrowthPopulation Risk1975 Cancer Deaths in White Males1975175,299175,299175,299175,2991976175,299180,269178,746177,3521977175,299184,261180,914178,0521978175,299189,013183,867179,4111979175,299193,447186,412180,2531980175,299198,189188,928181,2931981175,299199,373188,719179,7331982175,299204,473191,831181,3871983175,299208,060193,615181,7511984175,299211,373195,255182,0561985175,299215,088197,098182,5021986175,299218,383198,756182,6691987175,299221,766200,276182,7771988175,299224,520201,280182,3931989175,299228,317202,921182,5171990175,299232,617205,291182,9011991175,299236,430206,933182,2831992175,299238,504206,996180,1761993175,299241,940208,120179,1681994175,299243,012207,603176,8871995175,299244,026206,278173,9721996175,299243,970204,708170,9581997175,299243,212202,090167,0471998175,299244,124200,983164,4621999175,299247,392201,753163,4762000175,299247,396200,120160,6682001175,299248,142199,105158,3972002175,299249,864198,171156,3492003175,299249,045191,520152,6272004175,299247,446191,700148,8682005175,299250,475191,520147,5292006175,299250,318189,252144,5482007175,299252,047184,752141,9432008175,299254,119186,712140,1842009175,299255,040184,752137,6861975 Cancer Deaths in White Females1975148,711148,711148,711148,7111976148,711153,688152,569151,3771977148,711157,052153,985151,4781978148,711161,273156,378152,4311979148,711163,890157,147151,7601980148,711169,970160,982154,1971981148,711173,307162,654154,6701982148,711178,167165,506156,2851983148,711181,950167,359156,9961984148,711187,266170,715159,1711985148,711190,649172,523159,8601986148,711193,967174,107160,3011987148,711196,727175,124160,2501988148,711200,633177,296161,2421989148,711205,867180,475163,0991990148,711208,986181,889163,0261991148,711213,108184,329163,5621992148,711216,036185,438162,8931993148,711219,997187,521163,1161994148,711222,817189,061162,9631995148,711224,905189,505161,9271996148,711225,471189,125160,2311997148,711225,336187,794157,7031998148,711226,051187,187155,8541999148,711229,839189,280156,3122000148,711232,608190,664156,2692001148,711231,505188,998153,7592002148,711232,613188,708152,4452003148,711232,500187,329150,3072004148,711230,682184,914147,3802005148,711231,652184,070145,7222006148,711232,251183,502144,2532007148,711231,888181,551141,6492008148,711231,767179,705139,2412009148,711231,947178,483137,4271975 Cancer Deaths in Black Males197521,88421,88421,88421,884197621,88422,74822,67322,358197721,88423,61623,44822,829197821,88424,24923,98723,055197921,88424,82724,49023,196198021,88425,85525,75023,725198121,88426,47026,40524,004198221,88427,21727,12724,330198321,88427,92727,80324,613198421,88428,84828,73925,128198521,88429,02228,96425,005198621,88429,36029,34324,994198721,88429,92129,92725,157198821,88430,31930,37925,196198921,88431,45031,58225,825199021,88431,99332,26125,937199121,88432,08932,38625,498199221,88432,15632,53825,035199321,88433,06933,42325,188199421,88432,85833,20524,548199521,88432,87833,10124,037199621,88432,97333,06623,608199721,88432,71732,60722,876199821,88432,52132,16422,181199921,88432,84932,28621,892200021,88432,81531,90621,292200121,88432,67631,60320,808200221,88432,62531,27220,341200321,88432,44230,57519,682200421,88432,44130,29919,252200521,88432,72430,09418,881200621,88432,55529,54118,284200721,88433,06729,56418,041200821,88433,01829,03117,477200921,88433,44128,96817,2181975 Cancer Deaths in Black Females197515,74715,74715,74715,747197615,74716,40816,28516,034197715,74717,19716,89716,385197815,74717,55917,07516,307197915,74718,14717,49916,440198015,74719,17318,50416,940198115,74719,34618,55216,756198215,74720,08619,11817,030198315,74720,80319,64817,277198415,74721,40720,09517,455198515,74721,87420,38117,484198615,74722,61020,95517,750198715,74723,09321,28617,797198815,74723,64421,63417,845198915,74724,11421,98517,885199015,74725,08222,82418,271199115,74725,82623,35618,316199215,74726,24523,78318,269199315,74726,79624,15418,189199415,74727,07724,32617,979199515,74727,72324,80618,021199615,74727,79324,69517,649199715,74728,61625,22317,729199815,74728,67225,12417,377199915,74729,10125,31917,243200015,74729,12725,04916,819200115,74729,49025,19816,720200215,74729,98925,33016,622200315,74730,21825,16316,344200415,74730,05624,84615,966200515,74730,43724,71615,708200615,74730,52624,53015,411200715,74730,97824,64115,288200815,74730,93424,30914,862200915,74731,20424,19514,624

Mentions: To estimate the relative contribution to changes in the total number of new cancer deaths each year that can be attributed to changes in population risk (including changes in diagnosis and treatment practices) and demographic changes related to population size and age structure, we generated 3 sets of data by sex and race (white and black) for each year (1976–2009) based on a method first published in the 1999 Canadian Cancer Statistics report (11). The dotted line in Figure 1 represents the number of deaths from cancer that occurred in 1975. The lowest solid line represents the number of cancer deaths that would have occurred each year if the population size and age structure had remained the same as they were in 1975. This line is similar to the age-standardized death rate and reflects the impact of changes in population risk including changes in diagnosis and treatment practices. The middle line represents the number of deaths that would have occurred if the age structure of the population had remained the same as it was in 1975. This line reflects the impact of changes in risk and population growth. The top line represents the number of deaths that actually occurred and thus reflects the combined impact of changes in population risk, growth, and aging. The yearly difference between each set of death counts denotes the relative contribution to the overall change in the number of deaths since 1975 attributable to population risk, growth, and aging, respectively. A decline in risk during this time results in negative death counts as fewer deaths are attributed to risk compared with the baseline year.


Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality.

Weir HK, Thompson TD, Soman A, Møller B, Leadbetter S, White MC - Prev Chronic Dis (2015)

Trends in deaths from all cancers combined attributed to population risk (including diagnostic and treatment practices), growth, and aging (1975–2009), by sex and race (white, black).Year of Diagnosis1975 Cancer DeathsPopulation AgingPopulation GrowthPopulation Risk1975 Cancer Deaths in White Males1975175,299175,299175,299175,2991976175,299180,269178,746177,3521977175,299184,261180,914178,0521978175,299189,013183,867179,4111979175,299193,447186,412180,2531980175,299198,189188,928181,2931981175,299199,373188,719179,7331982175,299204,473191,831181,3871983175,299208,060193,615181,7511984175,299211,373195,255182,0561985175,299215,088197,098182,5021986175,299218,383198,756182,6691987175,299221,766200,276182,7771988175,299224,520201,280182,3931989175,299228,317202,921182,5171990175,299232,617205,291182,9011991175,299236,430206,933182,2831992175,299238,504206,996180,1761993175,299241,940208,120179,1681994175,299243,012207,603176,8871995175,299244,026206,278173,9721996175,299243,970204,708170,9581997175,299243,212202,090167,0471998175,299244,124200,983164,4621999175,299247,392201,753163,4762000175,299247,396200,120160,6682001175,299248,142199,105158,3972002175,299249,864198,171156,3492003175,299249,045191,520152,6272004175,299247,446191,700148,8682005175,299250,475191,520147,5292006175,299250,318189,252144,5482007175,299252,047184,752141,9432008175,299254,119186,712140,1842009175,299255,040184,752137,6861975 Cancer Deaths in White Females1975148,711148,711148,711148,7111976148,711153,688152,569151,3771977148,711157,052153,985151,4781978148,711161,273156,378152,4311979148,711163,890157,147151,7601980148,711169,970160,982154,1971981148,711173,307162,654154,6701982148,711178,167165,506156,2851983148,711181,950167,359156,9961984148,711187,266170,715159,1711985148,711190,649172,523159,8601986148,711193,967174,107160,3011987148,711196,727175,124160,2501988148,711200,633177,296161,2421989148,711205,867180,475163,0991990148,711208,986181,889163,0261991148,711213,108184,329163,5621992148,711216,036185,438162,8931993148,711219,997187,521163,1161994148,711222,817189,061162,9631995148,711224,905189,505161,9271996148,711225,471189,125160,2311997148,711225,336187,794157,7031998148,711226,051187,187155,8541999148,711229,839189,280156,3122000148,711232,608190,664156,2692001148,711231,505188,998153,7592002148,711232,613188,708152,4452003148,711232,500187,329150,3072004148,711230,682184,914147,3802005148,711231,652184,070145,7222006148,711232,251183,502144,2532007148,711231,888181,551141,6492008148,711231,767179,705139,2412009148,711231,947178,483137,4271975 Cancer Deaths in Black Males197521,88421,88421,88421,884197621,88422,74822,67322,358197721,88423,61623,44822,829197821,88424,24923,98723,055197921,88424,82724,49023,196198021,88425,85525,75023,725198121,88426,47026,40524,004198221,88427,21727,12724,330198321,88427,92727,80324,613198421,88428,84828,73925,128198521,88429,02228,96425,005198621,88429,36029,34324,994198721,88429,92129,92725,157198821,88430,31930,37925,196198921,88431,45031,58225,825199021,88431,99332,26125,937199121,88432,08932,38625,498199221,88432,15632,53825,035199321,88433,06933,42325,188199421,88432,85833,20524,548199521,88432,87833,10124,037199621,88432,97333,06623,608199721,88432,71732,60722,876199821,88432,52132,16422,181199921,88432,84932,28621,892200021,88432,81531,90621,292200121,88432,67631,60320,808200221,88432,62531,27220,341200321,88432,44230,57519,682200421,88432,44130,29919,252200521,88432,72430,09418,881200621,88432,55529,54118,284200721,88433,06729,56418,041200821,88433,01829,03117,477200921,88433,44128,96817,2181975 Cancer Deaths in Black Females197515,74715,74715,74715,747197615,74716,40816,28516,034197715,74717,19716,89716,385197815,74717,55917,07516,307197915,74718,14717,49916,440198015,74719,17318,50416,940198115,74719,34618,55216,756198215,74720,08619,11817,030198315,74720,80319,64817,277198415,74721,40720,09517,455198515,74721,87420,38117,484198615,74722,61020,95517,750198715,74723,09321,28617,797198815,74723,64421,63417,845198915,74724,11421,98517,885199015,74725,08222,82418,271199115,74725,82623,35618,316199215,74726,24523,78318,269199315,74726,79624,15418,189199415,74727,07724,32617,979199515,74727,72324,80618,021199615,74727,79324,69517,649199715,74728,61625,22317,729199815,74728,67225,12417,377199915,74729,10125,31917,243200015,74729,12725,04916,819200115,74729,49025,19816,720200215,74729,98925,33016,622200315,74730,21825,16316,344200415,74730,05624,84615,966200515,74730,43724,71615,708200615,74730,52624,53015,411200715,74730,97824,64115,288200815,74730,93424,30914,862200915,74731,20424,19514,624
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Figure 1: Trends in deaths from all cancers combined attributed to population risk (including diagnostic and treatment practices), growth, and aging (1975–2009), by sex and race (white, black).Year of Diagnosis1975 Cancer DeathsPopulation AgingPopulation GrowthPopulation Risk1975 Cancer Deaths in White Males1975175,299175,299175,299175,2991976175,299180,269178,746177,3521977175,299184,261180,914178,0521978175,299189,013183,867179,4111979175,299193,447186,412180,2531980175,299198,189188,928181,2931981175,299199,373188,719179,7331982175,299204,473191,831181,3871983175,299208,060193,615181,7511984175,299211,373195,255182,0561985175,299215,088197,098182,5021986175,299218,383198,756182,6691987175,299221,766200,276182,7771988175,299224,520201,280182,3931989175,299228,317202,921182,5171990175,299232,617205,291182,9011991175,299236,430206,933182,2831992175,299238,504206,996180,1761993175,299241,940208,120179,1681994175,299243,012207,603176,8871995175,299244,026206,278173,9721996175,299243,970204,708170,9581997175,299243,212202,090167,0471998175,299244,124200,983164,4621999175,299247,392201,753163,4762000175,299247,396200,120160,6682001175,299248,142199,105158,3972002175,299249,864198,171156,3492003175,299249,045191,520152,6272004175,299247,446191,700148,8682005175,299250,475191,520147,5292006175,299250,318189,252144,5482007175,299252,047184,752141,9432008175,299254,119186,712140,1842009175,299255,040184,752137,6861975 Cancer Deaths in White Females1975148,711148,711148,711148,7111976148,711153,688152,569151,3771977148,711157,052153,985151,4781978148,711161,273156,378152,4311979148,711163,890157,147151,7601980148,711169,970160,982154,1971981148,711173,307162,654154,6701982148,711178,167165,506156,2851983148,711181,950167,359156,9961984148,711187,266170,715159,1711985148,711190,649172,523159,8601986148,711193,967174,107160,3011987148,711196,727175,124160,2501988148,711200,633177,296161,2421989148,711205,867180,475163,0991990148,711208,986181,889163,0261991148,711213,108184,329163,5621992148,711216,036185,438162,8931993148,711219,997187,521163,1161994148,711222,817189,061162,9631995148,711224,905189,505161,9271996148,711225,471189,125160,2311997148,711225,336187,794157,7031998148,711226,051187,187155,8541999148,711229,839189,280156,3122000148,711232,608190,664156,2692001148,711231,505188,998153,7592002148,711232,613188,708152,4452003148,711232,500187,329150,3072004148,711230,682184,914147,3802005148,711231,652184,070145,7222006148,711232,251183,502144,2532007148,711231,888181,551141,6492008148,711231,767179,705139,2412009148,711231,947178,483137,4271975 Cancer Deaths in Black Males197521,88421,88421,88421,884197621,88422,74822,67322,358197721,88423,61623,44822,829197821,88424,24923,98723,055197921,88424,82724,49023,196198021,88425,85525,75023,725198121,88426,47026,40524,004198221,88427,21727,12724,330198321,88427,92727,80324,613198421,88428,84828,73925,128198521,88429,02228,96425,005198621,88429,36029,34324,994198721,88429,92129,92725,157198821,88430,31930,37925,196198921,88431,45031,58225,825199021,88431,99332,26125,937199121,88432,08932,38625,498199221,88432,15632,53825,035199321,88433,06933,42325,188199421,88432,85833,20524,548199521,88432,87833,10124,037199621,88432,97333,06623,608199721,88432,71732,60722,876199821,88432,52132,16422,181199921,88432,84932,28621,892200021,88432,81531,90621,292200121,88432,67631,60320,808200221,88432,62531,27220,341200321,88432,44230,57519,682200421,88432,44130,29919,252200521,88432,72430,09418,881200621,88432,55529,54118,284200721,88433,06729,56418,041200821,88433,01829,03117,477200921,88433,44128,96817,2181975 Cancer Deaths in Black Females197515,74715,74715,74715,747197615,74716,40816,28516,034197715,74717,19716,89716,385197815,74717,55917,07516,307197915,74718,14717,49916,440198015,74719,17318,50416,940198115,74719,34618,55216,756198215,74720,08619,11817,030198315,74720,80319,64817,277198415,74721,40720,09517,455198515,74721,87420,38117,484198615,74722,61020,95517,750198715,74723,09321,28617,797198815,74723,64421,63417,845198915,74724,11421,98517,885199015,74725,08222,82418,271199115,74725,82623,35618,316199215,74726,24523,78318,269199315,74726,79624,15418,189199415,74727,07724,32617,979199515,74727,72324,80618,021199615,74727,79324,69517,649199715,74728,61625,22317,729199815,74728,67225,12417,377199915,74729,10125,31917,243200015,74729,12725,04916,819200115,74729,49025,19816,720200215,74729,98925,33016,622200315,74730,21825,16316,344200415,74730,05624,84615,966200515,74730,43724,71615,708200615,74730,52624,53015,411200715,74730,97824,64115,288200815,74730,93424,30914,862200915,74731,20424,19514,624
Mentions: To estimate the relative contribution to changes in the total number of new cancer deaths each year that can be attributed to changes in population risk (including changes in diagnosis and treatment practices) and demographic changes related to population size and age structure, we generated 3 sets of data by sex and race (white and black) for each year (1976–2009) based on a method first published in the 1999 Canadian Cancer Statistics report (11). The dotted line in Figure 1 represents the number of deaths from cancer that occurred in 1975. The lowest solid line represents the number of cancer deaths that would have occurred each year if the population size and age structure had remained the same as they were in 1975. This line is similar to the age-standardized death rate and reflects the impact of changes in population risk including changes in diagnosis and treatment practices. The middle line represents the number of deaths that would have occurred if the age structure of the population had remained the same as it was in 1975. This line reflects the impact of changes in risk and population growth. The top line represents the number of deaths that actually occurred and thus reflects the combined impact of changes in population risk, growth, and aging. The yearly difference between each set of death counts denotes the relative contribution to the overall change in the number of deaths since 1975 attributable to population risk, growth, and aging, respectively. A decline in risk during this time results in negative death counts as fewer deaths are attributed to risk compared with the baseline year.

Bottom Line: We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%).Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Epidemiology and Applied Research Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy, Mailstop F76, Atlanta, GA 30341. Email: hbw4@cdc.gov.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Healthy People 2020 (HP2020) calls for a 10% to 15% reduction in death rates from 2007 to 2020 for selected cancers. Trends in death rates can be used to predict progress toward meeting HP2020 targets.

Methods: We used mortality data from 1975 through 2009 and population estimates and projections to predict deaths for all cancers and the top 23 cancers among men and women by race. We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.

Results: From 1975 to 2009, the number of cancer deaths increased among white and black Americans primarily because of an aging white population and a growing black population. Overall, age-standardized cancer death rates (risk) declined in all groups. From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%). Declining death rates are predicted to meet HP2020 targets for cancers of the female breast, lung and bronchus, cervix and uterus, colon and rectum, oral cavity and pharynx, and prostate, but not for melanoma.

Conclusion: Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women. Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging population on the cancer burden and to meet melanoma target death rates.

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