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Phylodynamics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2005-2010: Potential for Molecular Surveillance of New Outbreaks.

Alkhamis MA, Moore BR, Perez AM - Viruses (2015)

Bottom Line: Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe.Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe.Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Environmental and Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait City, Safat 13109, Kuwait. mkhamis@kisr.edu.kw.

ABSTRACT
Previous Bayesian phylogeographic studies of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) explored the origin and spread of the epidemic from China into Russia, indicating that HPAIV circulated in Russia prior to its detection there in 2005. In this study, we extend this research to explore the evolution and spread of HPAIV within Europe during the 2005-2010 epidemic, using all available sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene regions that were collected in Europe and Russia during the outbreak. We use discrete-trait phylodynamic models within a Bayesian statistical framework to explore the evolution of HPAIV. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe. Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe. Additionally, estimates of viral dispersal routes indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were key epicenters of these outbreaks. Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Posterior probabilities of ancestral areas of H5N1 HPAIV hemagglutinin (HA; A) and neauraminidase (NA; B) gene regions collected in Europe and the Russia.
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viruses-07-02773-f004: Posterior probabilities of ancestral areas of H5N1 HPAIV hemagglutinin (HA; A) and neauraminidase (NA; B) gene regions collected in Europe and the Russia.

Mentions: Results of our discrete phylodynamic analyses indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were important epicenters of the H5N1 HPAIV epidemic in Europe. Specifically, our results suggest that the virus first originated and accumulated in Russia, with subsequent significant dispersal rates out of Russia into Romania (Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure S2). Later, significant dispersal rates occurred between Romania and Germany. In fact, exchange between Russia-Romania and Romania-Germany represent the most significant dispersal rates of the virus during the course of the epidemic (Figure 5, Table S4). Finally, in late 2005 and early 2006 the virus spread independently from Romania and Germany, respectively into other areas of the EU (Figure S3); a scenario that is consistent with the results of previous studies [1,14,15,16,30].


Phylodynamics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2005-2010: Potential for Molecular Surveillance of New Outbreaks.

Alkhamis MA, Moore BR, Perez AM - Viruses (2015)

Posterior probabilities of ancestral areas of H5N1 HPAIV hemagglutinin (HA; A) and neauraminidase (NA; B) gene regions collected in Europe and the Russia.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4488740&req=5

viruses-07-02773-f004: Posterior probabilities of ancestral areas of H5N1 HPAIV hemagglutinin (HA; A) and neauraminidase (NA; B) gene regions collected in Europe and the Russia.
Mentions: Results of our discrete phylodynamic analyses indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were important epicenters of the H5N1 HPAIV epidemic in Europe. Specifically, our results suggest that the virus first originated and accumulated in Russia, with subsequent significant dispersal rates out of Russia into Romania (Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure S2). Later, significant dispersal rates occurred between Romania and Germany. In fact, exchange between Russia-Romania and Romania-Germany represent the most significant dispersal rates of the virus during the course of the epidemic (Figure 5, Table S4). Finally, in late 2005 and early 2006 the virus spread independently from Romania and Germany, respectively into other areas of the EU (Figure S3); a scenario that is consistent with the results of previous studies [1,14,15,16,30].

Bottom Line: Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe.Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe.Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Environmental and Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait City, Safat 13109, Kuwait. mkhamis@kisr.edu.kw.

ABSTRACT
Previous Bayesian phylogeographic studies of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) explored the origin and spread of the epidemic from China into Russia, indicating that HPAIV circulated in Russia prior to its detection there in 2005. In this study, we extend this research to explore the evolution and spread of HPAIV within Europe during the 2005-2010 epidemic, using all available sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene regions that were collected in Europe and Russia during the outbreak. We use discrete-trait phylodynamic models within a Bayesian statistical framework to explore the evolution of HPAIV. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe. Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe. Additionally, estimates of viral dispersal routes indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were key epicenters of these outbreaks. Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus