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Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe.

Semenza JC - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak.Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira.The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Tomtebodavagen 11A, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden. Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu.

ABSTRACT
Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Airport-level final destination of international travellers from dengue affected areas. Reprinted with permission from [3].Disease and vector dispersal through international air traffic is the inevitable consequence of globalization. Pathogen introduction is difficult to intercept and public health has to resort to early detection, rapid response and effective control measures in order to contain potential dengue establishment and spread [53,69]. The approach presented here could be translated to other settings in support of integrated surveillance of human cases and vectors [3,10,70]. Such empirical models lend themselves to guide public health responses and can be developed into early warning systems of emerging risks [21,71].
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ijerph-12-06333-f008: Airport-level final destination of international travellers from dengue affected areas. Reprinted with permission from [3].Disease and vector dispersal through international air traffic is the inevitable consequence of globalization. Pathogen introduction is difficult to intercept and public health has to resort to early detection, rapid response and effective control measures in order to contain potential dengue establishment and spread [53,69]. The approach presented here could be translated to other settings in support of integrated surveillance of human cases and vectors [3,10,70]. Such empirical models lend themselves to guide public health responses and can be developed into early warning systems of emerging risks [21,71].

Mentions: With the goal to quantify the risk of dengue importation in areas where local transmission could occur (due to the presence of the vector) we took into account the global disease burden and seasonality of dengue, the volume and seasonal fluctuations of travelers originating from dengue-affected areas, and the seasonality and distribution of competent mosquito populations within Europe [3]. We developed a model based on 2010 data that relates air travelers from dengue affected areas to dengue importation to Europe. Over 5.8 million air passengers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas in 2010; country-level arrival by month is illustrated in Figure 7 [3]. The final European destinations was mapped as a function of the volumes of global air travelers arriving from areas with dengue activity during 2010; the spatial extent of the Ae. albopictus distribution (from the E3 data repository) was overlaid (Figure 8). Milan and Rome received over half, and Barcelona 14 % of these travelers that enter Europe from dengue-active/affected areas [3].


Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe.

Semenza JC - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2015)

Airport-level final destination of international travellers from dengue affected areas. Reprinted with permission from [3].Disease and vector dispersal through international air traffic is the inevitable consequence of globalization. Pathogen introduction is difficult to intercept and public health has to resort to early detection, rapid response and effective control measures in order to contain potential dengue establishment and spread [53,69]. The approach presented here could be translated to other settings in support of integrated surveillance of human cases and vectors [3,10,70]. Such empirical models lend themselves to guide public health responses and can be developed into early warning systems of emerging risks [21,71].
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4483704&req=5

ijerph-12-06333-f008: Airport-level final destination of international travellers from dengue affected areas. Reprinted with permission from [3].Disease and vector dispersal through international air traffic is the inevitable consequence of globalization. Pathogen introduction is difficult to intercept and public health has to resort to early detection, rapid response and effective control measures in order to contain potential dengue establishment and spread [53,69]. The approach presented here could be translated to other settings in support of integrated surveillance of human cases and vectors [3,10,70]. Such empirical models lend themselves to guide public health responses and can be developed into early warning systems of emerging risks [21,71].
Mentions: With the goal to quantify the risk of dengue importation in areas where local transmission could occur (due to the presence of the vector) we took into account the global disease burden and seasonality of dengue, the volume and seasonal fluctuations of travelers originating from dengue-affected areas, and the seasonality and distribution of competent mosquito populations within Europe [3]. We developed a model based on 2010 data that relates air travelers from dengue affected areas to dengue importation to Europe. Over 5.8 million air passengers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas in 2010; country-level arrival by month is illustrated in Figure 7 [3]. The final European destinations was mapped as a function of the volumes of global air travelers arriving from areas with dengue activity during 2010; the spatial extent of the Ae. albopictus distribution (from the E3 data repository) was overlaid (Figure 8). Milan and Rome received over half, and Barcelona 14 % of these travelers that enter Europe from dengue-active/affected areas [3].

Bottom Line: Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak.Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira.The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Tomtebodavagen 11A, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden. Jan.Semenza@ecdc.europa.eu.

ABSTRACT
Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus