Limits...
Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Dürr S, Ward MP - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions.Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy).Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, New South Wales, Australia.

ABSTRACT
Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Rabies detection and vaccination and culling strategies.The starting order of the strategies in case applying more than one intervention may change (with the exception of pre-emptive vaccination), according to the user defined time delay between the detection of the first rabies case in the region and the start of the respective control strategy (dotted arrows).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4482682&req=5

pntd.0003876.g003: Rabies detection and vaccination and culling strategies.The starting order of the strategies in case applying more than one intervention may change (with the exception of pre-emptive vaccination), according to the user defined time delay between the detection of the first rabies case in the region and the start of the respective control strategy (dotted arrows).

Mentions: Within the model, detection of rabid dogs and application of vaccination and culling are simulated after the spread of rabies, whereas dog confinement measures are implemented directly at the stage of between-household and between-community rabies transmission (Figs 1 and 3). The detection of the first rabid dog in the region is considered to take substantially longer than the cases following, because disease awareness will increase after the confirmation of the first rabies case. Detection of subsequent cases after the confirmation of the first case is assumed to be based on clinical signs with or without subsequent laboratory confirmation. Two vaccination, three culling and two dog confinement strategies − which can be selected either individually or in any combination − are implemented in the model.


Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Dürr S, Ward MP - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

Rabies detection and vaccination and culling strategies.The starting order of the strategies in case applying more than one intervention may change (with the exception of pre-emptive vaccination), according to the user defined time delay between the detection of the first rabies case in the region and the start of the respective control strategy (dotted arrows).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4482682&req=5

pntd.0003876.g003: Rabies detection and vaccination and culling strategies.The starting order of the strategies in case applying more than one intervention may change (with the exception of pre-emptive vaccination), according to the user defined time delay between the detection of the first rabies case in the region and the start of the respective control strategy (dotted arrows).
Mentions: Within the model, detection of rabid dogs and application of vaccination and culling are simulated after the spread of rabies, whereas dog confinement measures are implemented directly at the stage of between-household and between-community rabies transmission (Figs 1 and 3). The detection of the first rabid dog in the region is considered to take substantially longer than the cases following, because disease awareness will increase after the confirmation of the first rabies case. Detection of subsequent cases after the confirmation of the first case is assumed to be based on clinical signs with or without subsequent laboratory confirmation. Two vaccination, three culling and two dog confinement strategies − which can be selected either individually or in any combination − are implemented in the model.

Bottom Line: Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions.Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy).Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, New South Wales, Australia.

ABSTRACT
Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus