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Nomogram predicted survival of patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction.

Zhou Z, Zhang H, Xu Z, Li W, Dang C, Song Y - World J Surg Oncol (2015)

Bottom Line: In our study, six clinical associated factors (age, sex, depth of invasion, metastasized lymph nodes, examined lymph nodes, histological grade) were evaluated in the nomogram.In the training set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (Harrell's C-index, 0.69 and 0.63, respectively).Calibration of the nomogram predicted survival was similar to the actual overall survival.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Surgical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Xi'an Jiaotong University, 277 W. Yanta Road, Xi'an, 710061, , Shaanxi, China. zhouzhangjian1989@yahoo.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: The aim of this study is to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction and compare its predictive accuracy with the traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) malignant staging system.

Methods: Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (from 1988 to 2011) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University (from 2005 to 2010) were collected retrospectively. Preselected multiple potential interactions were tested irrespective of significance as nomogram parameters. And the Harrell's C-index was used to estimate the accuracy of the nomogram system. Model validation was performed using bootstrap to quantify our modeling strategy.

Results: In our study, six clinical associated factors (age, sex, depth of invasion, metastasized lymph nodes, examined lymph nodes, histological grade) were evaluated in the nomogram. In the training set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (Harrell's C-index, 0.69 and 0.63, respectively). Calibration of the nomogram predicted survival was similar to the actual overall survival. In the validation set, the discrimination of nomogram was also better than the AJCC TNM staging system (C-index, 0.75 and 0.65, respectively), and the calibration of nomogram predicted survival was within a 10 % margin of actual overall survival.

Conclusions: Based on the patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction from a Western and an Eastern database, the nomogram provided significantly improved discrimination than the traditional AJCC TNM classification and also provided an accurate individualized prediction of the survival.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Calibration of the nomogram in the training set. Nomogram predicted probability of overall survival was plotted on the x-axis, actual overall survival was plotted on the y-axis and 95 % CIs measured by Kaplan-Meier analysis. All predictions lie within the 10 % margin of error (within the blue dots line). a Three-year survival. b Five-year survival
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Fig4: Calibration of the nomogram in the training set. Nomogram predicted probability of overall survival was plotted on the x-axis, actual overall survival was plotted on the y-axis and 95 % CIs measured by Kaplan-Meier analysis. All predictions lie within the 10 % margin of error (within the blue dots line). a Three-year survival. b Five-year survival

Mentions: Predictive accuracy of the final nomogram model and AJCC model were measured by calculating the Harrell’s C-index. For the internal validation of the nomogram in the training set, the C-index was 0.69 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.66–0.72). It had a better discrimination compared with the AJCC TNM staging system which had a C-index of 0.63 (95 % CI, 0.61–0.66). Figure 4 shows the calibration plot of the nomogram of 3- and 5-year survival of the training set. As we could see, the predicted survival was corresponded closely with the actual survival and was always within the 10 % margin of error.Fig. 4


Nomogram predicted survival of patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction.

Zhou Z, Zhang H, Xu Z, Li W, Dang C, Song Y - World J Surg Oncol (2015)

Calibration of the nomogram in the training set. Nomogram predicted probability of overall survival was plotted on the x-axis, actual overall survival was plotted on the y-axis and 95 % CIs measured by Kaplan-Meier analysis. All predictions lie within the 10 % margin of error (within the blue dots line). a Three-year survival. b Five-year survival
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4465317&req=5

Fig4: Calibration of the nomogram in the training set. Nomogram predicted probability of overall survival was plotted on the x-axis, actual overall survival was plotted on the y-axis and 95 % CIs measured by Kaplan-Meier analysis. All predictions lie within the 10 % margin of error (within the blue dots line). a Three-year survival. b Five-year survival
Mentions: Predictive accuracy of the final nomogram model and AJCC model were measured by calculating the Harrell’s C-index. For the internal validation of the nomogram in the training set, the C-index was 0.69 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.66–0.72). It had a better discrimination compared with the AJCC TNM staging system which had a C-index of 0.63 (95 % CI, 0.61–0.66). Figure 4 shows the calibration plot of the nomogram of 3- and 5-year survival of the training set. As we could see, the predicted survival was corresponded closely with the actual survival and was always within the 10 % margin of error.Fig. 4

Bottom Line: In our study, six clinical associated factors (age, sex, depth of invasion, metastasized lymph nodes, examined lymph nodes, histological grade) were evaluated in the nomogram.In the training set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (Harrell's C-index, 0.69 and 0.63, respectively).Calibration of the nomogram predicted survival was similar to the actual overall survival.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Surgical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Xi'an Jiaotong University, 277 W. Yanta Road, Xi'an, 710061, , Shaanxi, China. zhouzhangjian1989@yahoo.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: The aim of this study is to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction and compare its predictive accuracy with the traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) malignant staging system.

Methods: Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (from 1988 to 2011) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University (from 2005 to 2010) were collected retrospectively. Preselected multiple potential interactions were tested irrespective of significance as nomogram parameters. And the Harrell's C-index was used to estimate the accuracy of the nomogram system. Model validation was performed using bootstrap to quantify our modeling strategy.

Results: In our study, six clinical associated factors (age, sex, depth of invasion, metastasized lymph nodes, examined lymph nodes, histological grade) were evaluated in the nomogram. In the training set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (Harrell's C-index, 0.69 and 0.63, respectively). Calibration of the nomogram predicted survival was similar to the actual overall survival. In the validation set, the discrimination of nomogram was also better than the AJCC TNM staging system (C-index, 0.75 and 0.65, respectively), and the calibration of nomogram predicted survival was within a 10 % margin of actual overall survival.

Conclusions: Based on the patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction from a Western and an Eastern database, the nomogram provided significantly improved discrimination than the traditional AJCC TNM classification and also provided an accurate individualized prediction of the survival.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus