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Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

Morgan FJ, Daigneault AJ - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale.Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions.While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Landcare Research, Auckland, New Zealand.

ABSTRACT
Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Change in GHG emissions by enterprise for $0 to $60/tCO2e GHG price scenarios.For all scenarios, the total net GHG emissions are estimated to decrease over time, including the $0/tCO2e baseline. Most decreases are due to expanding forest area, which results in larger net reductions than only gross reductions from livestock emissions. Mean values, standard deviation, and confidence intervals for this figure are available in S1 Table.
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pone.0127317.g006: Change in GHG emissions by enterprise for $0 to $60/tCO2e GHG price scenarios.For all scenarios, the total net GHG emissions are estimated to decrease over time, including the $0/tCO2e baseline. Most decreases are due to expanding forest area, which results in larger net reductions than only gross reductions from livestock emissions. Mean values, standard deviation, and confidence intervals for this figure are available in S1 Table.

Mentions: Total net GHG emissions are estimated to decrease over time, even for baseline where they go from about 0.78 in 2015 to 0.34 MtCO2e/yr (95% CI of 0.05 MtCO2e) in 2060 (Fig 6). As expected, both net and gross emissions decrease with GHG price. Most decreases are due to expanding forest area, which results in larger net reductions than only gross reductions from livestock emissions. In the ‘high’ GHG price scenario where emissions are taxed at $60/tCO2e, net GHGs reduce to about 0.15 MtCO2e/yr in 2060 (95% CI of 0.05 MtCO2e), a reduction of about 54% relative to the baseline (Fig 7). The same policy results in gross emissions being reduced by just 4% relative to the baseline case.


Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

Morgan FJ, Daigneault AJ - PLoS ONE (2015)

Change in GHG emissions by enterprise for $0 to $60/tCO2e GHG price scenarios.For all scenarios, the total net GHG emissions are estimated to decrease over time, including the $0/tCO2e baseline. Most decreases are due to expanding forest area, which results in larger net reductions than only gross reductions from livestock emissions. Mean values, standard deviation, and confidence intervals for this figure are available in S1 Table.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4440817&req=5

pone.0127317.g006: Change in GHG emissions by enterprise for $0 to $60/tCO2e GHG price scenarios.For all scenarios, the total net GHG emissions are estimated to decrease over time, including the $0/tCO2e baseline. Most decreases are due to expanding forest area, which results in larger net reductions than only gross reductions from livestock emissions. Mean values, standard deviation, and confidence intervals for this figure are available in S1 Table.
Mentions: Total net GHG emissions are estimated to decrease over time, even for baseline where they go from about 0.78 in 2015 to 0.34 MtCO2e/yr (95% CI of 0.05 MtCO2e) in 2060 (Fig 6). As expected, both net and gross emissions decrease with GHG price. Most decreases are due to expanding forest area, which results in larger net reductions than only gross reductions from livestock emissions. In the ‘high’ GHG price scenario where emissions are taxed at $60/tCO2e, net GHGs reduce to about 0.15 MtCO2e/yr in 2060 (95% CI of 0.05 MtCO2e), a reduction of about 54% relative to the baseline (Fig 7). The same policy results in gross emissions being reduced by just 4% relative to the baseline case.

Bottom Line: The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale.Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions.While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Landcare Research, Auckland, New Zealand.

ABSTRACT
Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus