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An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

Beaudouin R, Goussen B, Piccini B, Augustine S, Devillers J, Brion F, Péry AR - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models.We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis.While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Unité Modèles pour l'Ecotoxicologie et la Toxicologie (METO), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Verneuil en Halatte, France.

ABSTRACT
Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

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Mean of the DEB model sensitivity analysis results for length equations (A) and reproduction equations (B).Parameters are ordered according to the Sobol’s first order indices (light gray). Dark gray indices are the Sobol’s total indices. First order (Si) and total Sobol’ sensitivity indices (STi) were estimated at 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, and 400 dpf for length prediction and at 100, 200, and 400 dpf for the reproduction prediction.
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pone.0125841.g002: Mean of the DEB model sensitivity analysis results for length equations (A) and reproduction equations (B).Parameters are ordered according to the Sobol’s first order indices (light gray). Dark gray indices are the Sobol’s total indices. First order (Si) and total Sobol’ sensitivity indices (STi) were estimated at 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, and 400 dpf for length prediction and at 100, 200, and 400 dpf for the reproduction prediction.

Mentions: Sensitivity analysis performed on the DEB model (Fig 2 and S5 Text) showed that the main contributors to the DEB model output variations for the growth part of the model were the experimental and reference temperature, the shape coefficient, the maximum surface area specific assimilation rate, the actual ingestion rate divided by the maximal ingestion rate for a body size, the volume specific somatic maintenance costs, and the fraction of energy mobilised from the reserves which is allocated to growth and somatic maintenance for the growth part of the model. The experimental temperature, the reference temperature, the actual ingestion rate divided by the maximal ingestion rate for a body size, and the maximal reproduction rate were the main contributors to the reproduction part of the DEB model. As expected, these parameters of the DEB model were also in the most influent parameters in the DEB-IBM sensitivity analysis (Fig 3).


An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

Beaudouin R, Goussen B, Piccini B, Augustine S, Devillers J, Brion F, Péry AR - PLoS ONE (2015)

Mean of the DEB model sensitivity analysis results for length equations (A) and reproduction equations (B).Parameters are ordered according to the Sobol’s first order indices (light gray). Dark gray indices are the Sobol’s total indices. First order (Si) and total Sobol’ sensitivity indices (STi) were estimated at 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, and 400 dpf for length prediction and at 100, 200, and 400 dpf for the reproduction prediction.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4418570&req=5

pone.0125841.g002: Mean of the DEB model sensitivity analysis results for length equations (A) and reproduction equations (B).Parameters are ordered according to the Sobol’s first order indices (light gray). Dark gray indices are the Sobol’s total indices. First order (Si) and total Sobol’ sensitivity indices (STi) were estimated at 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, and 400 dpf for length prediction and at 100, 200, and 400 dpf for the reproduction prediction.
Mentions: Sensitivity analysis performed on the DEB model (Fig 2 and S5 Text) showed that the main contributors to the DEB model output variations for the growth part of the model were the experimental and reference temperature, the shape coefficient, the maximum surface area specific assimilation rate, the actual ingestion rate divided by the maximal ingestion rate for a body size, the volume specific somatic maintenance costs, and the fraction of energy mobilised from the reserves which is allocated to growth and somatic maintenance for the growth part of the model. The experimental temperature, the reference temperature, the actual ingestion rate divided by the maximal ingestion rate for a body size, and the maximal reproduction rate were the main contributors to the reproduction part of the DEB model. As expected, these parameters of the DEB model were also in the most influent parameters in the DEB-IBM sensitivity analysis (Fig 3).

Bottom Line: Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models.We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis.While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Unité Modèles pour l'Ecotoxicologie et la Toxicologie (METO), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Verneuil en Halatte, France.

ABSTRACT
Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus