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Prognostic Nomogram for Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma after Radical Esophagectomy.

Su D, Zhou X, Chen Q, Jiang Y, Yang X, Zheng W, Tao K, Wu J, Yan Z, Liu L, Wu S, Mao W - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Multivariate analysis identified tumor length, surgical approach, number of examined lymph node, number of positive lymph node, extent of positive lymph node, grade, and depth of invasion as independent risk factors for survival.The discriminative ability of the nomogram was externally determined using the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.715, 95% CI 0.671-0.759).The C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the sixth edition (0.664, P-value < 0.0001) and the seventh edition (0.696, P-value < 0.0003) of the TNM classification.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT
Nomogram has demonstrated its capability in individualized estimates of survival in diverse cancers. Here we retrospectively investigated 1195 patients with esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radical esophagectomy at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in Hangzhou, China. We randomly assigned two-thirds of the patients to a training cohort (n = 797) and one-third to a validation cohort (n = 398). Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed using the training cohort, and a nomogram was developed for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates. Multivariate analysis identified tumor length, surgical approach, number of examined lymph node, number of positive lymph node, extent of positive lymph node, grade, and depth of invasion as independent risk factors for survival. The discriminative ability of the nomogram was externally determined using the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.715, 95% CI 0.671-0.759). The C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the sixth edition (0.664, P-value < 0.0001) and the seventh edition (0.696, P-value < 0.0003) of the TNM classification. This study developed the first nomogram for ESCC, which can be applied in daily clinical practice for individualized survival prediction.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival after radical esophagectomy for esophageal squamous-cell cancer.To calculate the survival rate of each individual patient, points for each of the factors were first identified on the uppermost point-scale, and then the total points from all factors were added up and projected on the bottom point-scale to indicate the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. Abbreviation: LN, lymph nodes.
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pone.0124437.g001: Nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival after radical esophagectomy for esophageal squamous-cell cancer.To calculate the survival rate of each individual patient, points for each of the factors were first identified on the uppermost point-scale, and then the total points from all factors were added up and projected on the bottom point-scale to indicate the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. Abbreviation: LN, lymph nodes.

Mentions: Fig 1 shows the prognostic nomogram predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival developed from the results of multivariate analysis based on all significant risk factors using the training cohort. The C-index for predicting overall survival was 0.725 (95% CI, 0.694–0.756) using bootstrap resampling approach. Calibration plot using bootstrap resampling of the training cohort was illustrated in Fig 2A and 2B, showing that the nomogram predicted 3- and 5-year survival probabilities agrees optimally with the actual observation.


Prognostic Nomogram for Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma after Radical Esophagectomy.

Su D, Zhou X, Chen Q, Jiang Y, Yang X, Zheng W, Tao K, Wu J, Yan Z, Liu L, Wu S, Mao W - PLoS ONE (2015)

Nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival after radical esophagectomy for esophageal squamous-cell cancer.To calculate the survival rate of each individual patient, points for each of the factors were first identified on the uppermost point-scale, and then the total points from all factors were added up and projected on the bottom point-scale to indicate the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. Abbreviation: LN, lymph nodes.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4404051&req=5

pone.0124437.g001: Nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival after radical esophagectomy for esophageal squamous-cell cancer.To calculate the survival rate of each individual patient, points for each of the factors were first identified on the uppermost point-scale, and then the total points from all factors were added up and projected on the bottom point-scale to indicate the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. Abbreviation: LN, lymph nodes.
Mentions: Fig 1 shows the prognostic nomogram predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival developed from the results of multivariate analysis based on all significant risk factors using the training cohort. The C-index for predicting overall survival was 0.725 (95% CI, 0.694–0.756) using bootstrap resampling approach. Calibration plot using bootstrap resampling of the training cohort was illustrated in Fig 2A and 2B, showing that the nomogram predicted 3- and 5-year survival probabilities agrees optimally with the actual observation.

Bottom Line: Multivariate analysis identified tumor length, surgical approach, number of examined lymph node, number of positive lymph node, extent of positive lymph node, grade, and depth of invasion as independent risk factors for survival.The discriminative ability of the nomogram was externally determined using the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.715, 95% CI 0.671-0.759).The C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the sixth edition (0.664, P-value < 0.0001) and the seventh edition (0.696, P-value < 0.0003) of the TNM classification.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT
Nomogram has demonstrated its capability in individualized estimates of survival in diverse cancers. Here we retrospectively investigated 1195 patients with esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radical esophagectomy at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in Hangzhou, China. We randomly assigned two-thirds of the patients to a training cohort (n = 797) and one-third to a validation cohort (n = 398). Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed using the training cohort, and a nomogram was developed for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates. Multivariate analysis identified tumor length, surgical approach, number of examined lymph node, number of positive lymph node, extent of positive lymph node, grade, and depth of invasion as independent risk factors for survival. The discriminative ability of the nomogram was externally determined using the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.715, 95% CI 0.671-0.759). The C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the sixth edition (0.664, P-value < 0.0001) and the seventh edition (0.696, P-value < 0.0003) of the TNM classification. This study developed the first nomogram for ESCC, which can be applied in daily clinical practice for individualized survival prediction.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus