The ALERT scale: an observational study of early prediction of adverse hospital outcome for medical patients.
Bottom Line: Some medical patients are at greater risk of adverse outcomes than others and may benefit from higher observation hospital units.The model was discriminative (ROC=0.83) in predicting adverse outcome.Those considered as higher risk by the ALERT scale may then be provided more effective care from action such as planned tiered care units.
Affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus
Mentions: Our model results in the development population are described in table 3A, indicating good calibration (C^=9.91) and good discrimination (ROC=0.831). Application of the model to the four validation populations in the 2005–2008 validation period produced ROC of 0.78 (TH2), 0.80 (CH3), 0.79 (CH4) and 0.81 (TH1B), indicating very similar discrimination to that obtained in the model development population. Similarly, in the 2009–2012 validation period, we found ROC of 0.77 (TH2), 0.75 (CH3), 0.80 (CH4) and 0.79 (TH1B). Figure 1 displays the ROC curves for the development population and each of the four validation sites and two validation periods.
Affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.