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The ALERT scale: an observational study of early prediction of adverse hospital outcome for medical patients.

Roberts D, Patrick W, Mojica J, Ostryzniuk P, Patrick M, MacKnight C, Kraut A, Shafer LA - BMJ Open (2015)

Bottom Line: Some medical patients are at greater risk of adverse outcomes than others and may benefit from higher observation hospital units.The model was discriminative (ROC=0.83) in predicting adverse outcome.Those considered as higher risk by the ALERT scale may then be provided more effective care from action such as planned tiered care units.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Receiver-operating characteristic ROC curves: Plot of sensitivity and 1-specificity for all possible cut points in the development group (TH1) and eight validation groups (namely, TH1B, TH2, CH3 and CH4 at two periods October 2005–December 2008 and January 2009–December 2012.
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BMJOPEN2014005501F1: Receiver-operating characteristic ROC curves: Plot of sensitivity and 1-specificity for all possible cut points in the development group (TH1) and eight validation groups (namely, TH1B, TH2, CH3 and CH4 at two periods October 2005–December 2008 and January 2009–December 2012.

Mentions: Our model results in the development population are described in table 3A, indicating good calibration (C^=9.91) and good discrimination (ROC=0.831). Application of the model to the four validation populations in the 2005–2008 validation period produced ROC of 0.78 (TH2), 0.80 (CH3), 0.79 (CH4) and 0.81 (TH1B), indicating very similar discrimination to that obtained in the model development population. Similarly, in the 2009–2012 validation period, we found ROC of 0.77 (TH2), 0.75 (CH3), 0.80 (CH4) and 0.79 (TH1B). Figure 1 displays the ROC curves for the development population and each of the four validation sites and two validation periods.


The ALERT scale: an observational study of early prediction of adverse hospital outcome for medical patients.

Roberts D, Patrick W, Mojica J, Ostryzniuk P, Patrick M, MacKnight C, Kraut A, Shafer LA - BMJ Open (2015)

Receiver-operating characteristic ROC curves: Plot of sensitivity and 1-specificity for all possible cut points in the development group (TH1) and eight validation groups (namely, TH1B, TH2, CH3 and CH4 at two periods October 2005–December 2008 and January 2009–December 2012.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4401845&req=5

BMJOPEN2014005501F1: Receiver-operating characteristic ROC curves: Plot of sensitivity and 1-specificity for all possible cut points in the development group (TH1) and eight validation groups (namely, TH1B, TH2, CH3 and CH4 at two periods October 2005–December 2008 and January 2009–December 2012.
Mentions: Our model results in the development population are described in table 3A, indicating good calibration (C^=9.91) and good discrimination (ROC=0.831). Application of the model to the four validation populations in the 2005–2008 validation period produced ROC of 0.78 (TH2), 0.80 (CH3), 0.79 (CH4) and 0.81 (TH1B), indicating very similar discrimination to that obtained in the model development population. Similarly, in the 2009–2012 validation period, we found ROC of 0.77 (TH2), 0.75 (CH3), 0.80 (CH4) and 0.79 (TH1B). Figure 1 displays the ROC curves for the development population and each of the four validation sites and two validation periods.

Bottom Line: Some medical patients are at greater risk of adverse outcomes than others and may benefit from higher observation hospital units.The model was discriminative (ROC=0.83) in predicting adverse outcome.Those considered as higher risk by the ALERT scale may then be provided more effective care from action such as planned tiered care units.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus