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Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

Rehill N, Armstrong B, Wilkinson P - BMJ Open (2015)

Bottom Line: The estimated association between hot years and all-cause mortality was very imprecise and thus inconclusive (effect estimate 1.7%, -2.9% to 6.5%).These estimates were broadly robust to changes in the way temperature and trend were modelled.The estimated association with heat was imprecise, with the CI including magnitudes found in daily studies but also including zero.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: London Kent Surrey & Sussex Public Health Training Programme, London, UK.

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Annual deaths and mean of daily degrees Celsius below/above 18°C, London 1949–2006 (vertical lines indicate years affected by boundary changes). Points and lines are graphed at the first year of the October–September years used in analyses, for example, analysis year October 1965 to September 1966 is ‘1965’.
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BMJOPEN2014005640F1: Annual deaths and mean of daily degrees Celsius below/above 18°C, London 1949–2006 (vertical lines indicate years affected by boundary changes). Points and lines are graphed at the first year of the October–September years used in analyses, for example, analysis year October 1965 to September 1966 is ‘1965’.

Mentions: Our data set comprised 57 annual counts totalling 3 530 280 deaths from natural causes for years from 1949–1950 to 2005–2006. Over the entire period, apart from a sharp increase due to the changed administrative definition of London in January 1966, there is evidence of a gradual decline from about 1970 (figure 1).


Clarifying life lost due to cold and heat: a new approach using annual time series.

Rehill N, Armstrong B, Wilkinson P - BMJ Open (2015)

Annual deaths and mean of daily degrees Celsius below/above 18°C, London 1949–2006 (vertical lines indicate years affected by boundary changes). Points and lines are graphed at the first year of the October–September years used in analyses, for example, analysis year October 1965 to September 1966 is ‘1965’.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4401844&req=5

BMJOPEN2014005640F1: Annual deaths and mean of daily degrees Celsius below/above 18°C, London 1949–2006 (vertical lines indicate years affected by boundary changes). Points and lines are graphed at the first year of the October–September years used in analyses, for example, analysis year October 1965 to September 1966 is ‘1965’.
Mentions: Our data set comprised 57 annual counts totalling 3 530 280 deaths from natural causes for years from 1949–1950 to 2005–2006. Over the entire period, apart from a sharp increase due to the changed administrative definition of London in January 1966, there is evidence of a gradual decline from about 1970 (figure 1).

Bottom Line: The estimated association between hot years and all-cause mortality was very imprecise and thus inconclusive (effect estimate 1.7%, -2.9% to 6.5%).These estimates were broadly robust to changes in the way temperature and trend were modelled.The estimated association with heat was imprecise, with the CI including magnitudes found in daily studies but also including zero.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: London Kent Surrey & Sussex Public Health Training Programme, London, UK.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus