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Complex response of white pines to past environmental variability increases understanding of future vulnerability.

Iglesias V, Krause TR, Whitlock C - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework.Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades.This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to high summer temperature and fire activity in the past. Moreover, the fossil record suggests that winter conditions and biotic interactions have been critical limiting variables for high-elevation conifers in the past and will likely be so in the future. This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Spatial-temporal dynamics of Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen, attributed to whitebark pine and limber pine.Darker shades of green show increasing pollen representation on a grid defined by elevation and time. The elevation of the sites employed in the analysis is shown on the right (RL: Rapid Lake; ML: Mariposa Lake; EL: Emerald Lake; DiL: Divide Lake; FL: Fallback Lake; CyL: Cygnet Lake; LL: Lily Lake and fen; BbF: Buckbean Fen; HP: Hedrick Pond; BP: Blacktail Pond; SL: Slough Creek Pond; CL: Crevice Lake; DL: Dailey Lake).
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pone.0124439.g003: Spatial-temporal dynamics of Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen, attributed to whitebark pine and limber pine.Darker shades of green show increasing pollen representation on a grid defined by elevation and time. The elevation of the sites employed in the analysis is shown on the right (RL: Rapid Lake; ML: Mariposa Lake; EL: Emerald Lake; DiL: Divide Lake; FL: Fallback Lake; CyL: Cygnet Lake; LL: Lily Lake and fen; BbF: Buckbean Fen; HP: Hedrick Pond; BP: Blacktail Pond; SL: Slough Creek Pond; CL: Crevice Lake; DL: Dailey Lake).

Mentions: Interpolated pollen data of Pinus subgenus Strobus from the 14 records highlight temporal and elevational changes in white pine abundance and distribution over the last 15,000 cal yrs (Fig 3). The full-glacial distribution of whitebark and limber pine in the region is unknown in the absence of sites from nonglaciated areas, but Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen was present early in the deglacial history when tundra and subalpine parkland were widespread. Initial expansion occurred at middle elevations (2000–2400 m) at 13,000 cal yr BP; and between 12,000 and 9000 cal yr BP, whitebark and/or limber pine were well represented at most elevations. The abundance of other subalpine conifers (e.g., Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir) in the pollen record prior to 9000 cal yr BP (Fig 2) suggests that whitebark pine was the likely contributor of the early Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen, but the presence of limber pine cannot be ruled out. After 9000 cal yr BP, and especially after 4000 cal yr BP, the interpolated pollen patterns show distinct high-elevation and a low-elevation components in the Pinus subgenus Strobus record, which we attribute the restriction of whitebark pine to upper treeline forests and limber pine to low elevation forests.


Complex response of white pines to past environmental variability increases understanding of future vulnerability.

Iglesias V, Krause TR, Whitlock C - PLoS ONE (2015)

Spatial-temporal dynamics of Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen, attributed to whitebark pine and limber pine.Darker shades of green show increasing pollen representation on a grid defined by elevation and time. The elevation of the sites employed in the analysis is shown on the right (RL: Rapid Lake; ML: Mariposa Lake; EL: Emerald Lake; DiL: Divide Lake; FL: Fallback Lake; CyL: Cygnet Lake; LL: Lily Lake and fen; BbF: Buckbean Fen; HP: Hedrick Pond; BP: Blacktail Pond; SL: Slough Creek Pond; CL: Crevice Lake; DL: Dailey Lake).
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
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getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4401641&req=5

pone.0124439.g003: Spatial-temporal dynamics of Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen, attributed to whitebark pine and limber pine.Darker shades of green show increasing pollen representation on a grid defined by elevation and time. The elevation of the sites employed in the analysis is shown on the right (RL: Rapid Lake; ML: Mariposa Lake; EL: Emerald Lake; DiL: Divide Lake; FL: Fallback Lake; CyL: Cygnet Lake; LL: Lily Lake and fen; BbF: Buckbean Fen; HP: Hedrick Pond; BP: Blacktail Pond; SL: Slough Creek Pond; CL: Crevice Lake; DL: Dailey Lake).
Mentions: Interpolated pollen data of Pinus subgenus Strobus from the 14 records highlight temporal and elevational changes in white pine abundance and distribution over the last 15,000 cal yrs (Fig 3). The full-glacial distribution of whitebark and limber pine in the region is unknown in the absence of sites from nonglaciated areas, but Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen was present early in the deglacial history when tundra and subalpine parkland were widespread. Initial expansion occurred at middle elevations (2000–2400 m) at 13,000 cal yr BP; and between 12,000 and 9000 cal yr BP, whitebark and/or limber pine were well represented at most elevations. The abundance of other subalpine conifers (e.g., Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir) in the pollen record prior to 9000 cal yr BP (Fig 2) suggests that whitebark pine was the likely contributor of the early Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen, but the presence of limber pine cannot be ruled out. After 9000 cal yr BP, and especially after 4000 cal yr BP, the interpolated pollen patterns show distinct high-elevation and a low-elevation components in the Pinus subgenus Strobus record, which we attribute the restriction of whitebark pine to upper treeline forests and limber pine to low elevation forests.

Bottom Line: Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework.Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades.This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to high summer temperature and fire activity in the past. Moreover, the fossil record suggests that winter conditions and biotic interactions have been critical limiting variables for high-elevation conifers in the past and will likely be so in the future. This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus