Limits...
Complex response of white pines to past environmental variability increases understanding of future vulnerability.

Iglesias V, Krause TR, Whitlock C - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework.Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades.This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to high summer temperature and fire activity in the past. Moreover, the fossil record suggests that winter conditions and biotic interactions have been critical limiting variables for high-elevation conifers in the past and will likely be so in the future. This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

(A) Location of pollen and charcoal records in the Greater Yellowstone region (brown shade) and modern distribution of whitebark pine (green shade) (www.geomapapp.org) [15].Postglacial trends in (B) Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen percentages, and (C) charcoal abundance at the study sites. The presence of macrofossils of Pinus subgenus Strobus is shown with ‘+’.
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pone.0124439.g001: (A) Location of pollen and charcoal records in the Greater Yellowstone region (brown shade) and modern distribution of whitebark pine (green shade) (www.geomapapp.org) [15].Postglacial trends in (B) Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen percentages, and (C) charcoal abundance at the study sites. The presence of macrofossils of Pinus subgenus Strobus is shown with ‘+’.

Mentions: The vegetation and fire history reconstruction draws on 16 published radiocarbon-dated paleoenvironmental records from lake sediments at low to high elevations (1598–3134 m) and from the northern to southwestern extent of the Greater Yellowstone region (45.22–42.73° N, Fig 1, Table 1). All records are publicly available in the USGS North Central Paleoenvironmental Database (www.nccscpaleoenvironmentaldatabase.com).


Complex response of white pines to past environmental variability increases understanding of future vulnerability.

Iglesias V, Krause TR, Whitlock C - PLoS ONE (2015)

(A) Location of pollen and charcoal records in the Greater Yellowstone region (brown shade) and modern distribution of whitebark pine (green shade) (www.geomapapp.org) [15].Postglacial trends in (B) Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen percentages, and (C) charcoal abundance at the study sites. The presence of macrofossils of Pinus subgenus Strobus is shown with ‘+’.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4401641&req=5

pone.0124439.g001: (A) Location of pollen and charcoal records in the Greater Yellowstone region (brown shade) and modern distribution of whitebark pine (green shade) (www.geomapapp.org) [15].Postglacial trends in (B) Pinus subgenus Strobus pollen percentages, and (C) charcoal abundance at the study sites. The presence of macrofossils of Pinus subgenus Strobus is shown with ‘+’.
Mentions: The vegetation and fire history reconstruction draws on 16 published radiocarbon-dated paleoenvironmental records from lake sediments at low to high elevations (1598–3134 m) and from the northern to southwestern extent of the Greater Yellowstone region (45.22–42.73° N, Fig 1, Table 1). All records are publicly available in the USGS North Central Paleoenvironmental Database (www.nccscpaleoenvironmentaldatabase.com).

Bottom Line: Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework.Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades.This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to high summer temperature and fire activity in the past. Moreover, the fossil record suggests that winter conditions and biotic interactions have been critical limiting variables for high-elevation conifers in the past and will likely be so in the future. This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus