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Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

Feldstein LR, Brownstein JS, Brady OJ, Hay SI, Johansson MA - Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. (2015)

Bottom Line: Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission.Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability.Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, 1 Autumn St., Boston, MA 02215, USA Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; USA.

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The effects of covariates on pObs, pSuit, and pOut. (A) shows the probability of observing an outbreak at different population sizes. The threshold of pObs = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (B) shows the probability of an island being suitable for DENV transmission as minimum monthly temperature changes. The threshold of pSuit = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (C) shows the relationship between population, precipitation, and the probability of recurrent outbreaks, with probability increasing from white to black. The contour lines indicate levels of pOut and the hatched area indicates the region where population size is too small for outbreaks to be readily observable (pObs < 0.5)
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TRV012F1: The effects of covariates on pObs, pSuit, and pOut. (A) shows the probability of observing an outbreak at different population sizes. The threshold of pObs = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (B) shows the probability of an island being suitable for DENV transmission as minimum monthly temperature changes. The threshold of pSuit = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (C) shows the relationship between population, precipitation, and the probability of recurrent outbreaks, with probability increasing from white to black. The contour lines indicate levels of pOut and the hatched area indicates the region where population size is too small for outbreaks to be readily observable (pObs < 0.5)

Mentions: The final model included three components: the probability of observing an outbreak, the probability of climatic suitability, and the yearly probability of outbreaks. This model included an effect of population on the probability of observation, an effect of minimum monthly temperature on the probability of suitability, and effects of population and precipitation on the yearly probability of outbreaks occurring. For every log increase in population size, the odds of observing an outbreak increased by 92% (95% credible interval [CI] 63–125%), with the probability of observation being greater than 0.5 for populations larger than 3600 (95% CI: 1900–5600) (Figure 1A). A 1°C increase in average temperature of the coldest month of the year was associated with a 67% (95% CI: 43–95%) higher odds of an island being suitable for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4–16.6°C) had a probability of suitability greater than 0.5 (Figure 1B). For every log increase in population size, the annual odds of an outbreak occurring increased by 36% (95% CI: 27–48%). For every centimeter increase in precipitation, the annual odds of an outbreak occurring increased by 0.56% (95% CI: 0.35–0.78%). Figure 1C shows the combined effect of these factors on the annual probability of outbreaks occurring.Figure 1.


Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.

Feldstein LR, Brownstein JS, Brady OJ, Hay SI, Johansson MA - Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. (2015)

The effects of covariates on pObs, pSuit, and pOut. (A) shows the probability of observing an outbreak at different population sizes. The threshold of pObs = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (B) shows the probability of an island being suitable for DENV transmission as minimum monthly temperature changes. The threshold of pSuit = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (C) shows the relationship between population, precipitation, and the probability of recurrent outbreaks, with probability increasing from white to black. The contour lines indicate levels of pOut and the hatched area indicates the region where population size is too small for outbreaks to be readily observable (pObs < 0.5)
© Copyright Policy - creative-commons
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4401210&req=5

TRV012F1: The effects of covariates on pObs, pSuit, and pOut. (A) shows the probability of observing an outbreak at different population sizes. The threshold of pObs = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (B) shows the probability of an island being suitable for DENV transmission as minimum monthly temperature changes. The threshold of pSuit = 0.5 is indicated with dashed lines. (C) shows the relationship between population, precipitation, and the probability of recurrent outbreaks, with probability increasing from white to black. The contour lines indicate levels of pOut and the hatched area indicates the region where population size is too small for outbreaks to be readily observable (pObs < 0.5)
Mentions: The final model included three components: the probability of observing an outbreak, the probability of climatic suitability, and the yearly probability of outbreaks. This model included an effect of population on the probability of observation, an effect of minimum monthly temperature on the probability of suitability, and effects of population and precipitation on the yearly probability of outbreaks occurring. For every log increase in population size, the odds of observing an outbreak increased by 92% (95% credible interval [CI] 63–125%), with the probability of observation being greater than 0.5 for populations larger than 3600 (95% CI: 1900–5600) (Figure 1A). A 1°C increase in average temperature of the coldest month of the year was associated with a 67% (95% CI: 43–95%) higher odds of an island being suitable for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4–16.6°C) had a probability of suitability greater than 0.5 (Figure 1B). For every log increase in population size, the annual odds of an outbreak occurring increased by 36% (95% CI: 27–48%). For every centimeter increase in precipitation, the annual odds of an outbreak occurring increased by 0.56% (95% CI: 0.35–0.78%). Figure 1C shows the combined effect of these factors on the annual probability of outbreaks occurring.Figure 1.

Bottom Line: Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission.Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability.Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, 1 Autumn St., Boston, MA 02215, USA Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington; USA.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus