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Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Vugrin ED, Rostron BL, Verzi SJ, Brodsky NS, Brown TJ, Choiniere CJ, Coleman BN, Paredes A, Apelberg BJ - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product.Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Resilience and Regulatory Effects, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Background: Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.

Methods and findings: We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.

Conclusion: Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

No MeSH data available.


The effect of new product excess relative risk factor values on cumulative difference in deaths between the status quo and hypothetical scenario A, 2000–2050.
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pone.0121008.g006: The effect of new product excess relative risk factor values on cumulative difference in deaths between the status quo and hypothetical scenario A, 2000–2050.

Mentions: Fig. 6 shows the results of a parameter sweep across a range of excess relative risk factor values for the new product. New product excess relative risks are varied from 1% to 50% of the excess risk of cigarettes. In these simulations, all other input parameter values are set to the base values listed in Table 1 (Hypothetical Scenario A) and remain constant. The comparison continues to be cumulative difference in deaths between the hypothetical and status quo scenarios. In the year 2050, cumulative difference in deaths with the hypothetical scenario changes from negative to positive at a new product mortality excess relative risk of about 35% of the risk of cigarettes, and cumulative difference in deaths at this point is increasing over time. For higher excess relative risk factors, an increased number of cumulative deaths is observed at earlier times.


Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Vugrin ED, Rostron BL, Verzi SJ, Brodsky NS, Brown TJ, Choiniere CJ, Coleman BN, Paredes A, Apelberg BJ - PLoS ONE (2015)

The effect of new product excess relative risk factor values on cumulative difference in deaths between the status quo and hypothetical scenario A, 2000–2050.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4376806&req=5

pone.0121008.g006: The effect of new product excess relative risk factor values on cumulative difference in deaths between the status quo and hypothetical scenario A, 2000–2050.
Mentions: Fig. 6 shows the results of a parameter sweep across a range of excess relative risk factor values for the new product. New product excess relative risks are varied from 1% to 50% of the excess risk of cigarettes. In these simulations, all other input parameter values are set to the base values listed in Table 1 (Hypothetical Scenario A) and remain constant. The comparison continues to be cumulative difference in deaths between the hypothetical and status quo scenarios. In the year 2050, cumulative difference in deaths with the hypothetical scenario changes from negative to positive at a new product mortality excess relative risk of about 35% of the risk of cigarettes, and cumulative difference in deaths at this point is increasing over time. For higher excess relative risk factors, an increased number of cumulative deaths is observed at earlier times.

Bottom Line: We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product.Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Resilience and Regulatory Effects, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Background: Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.

Methods and findings: We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.

Conclusion: Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

No MeSH data available.