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Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Vugrin ED, Rostron BL, Verzi SJ, Brodsky NS, Brown TJ, Choiniere CJ, Coleman BN, Paredes A, Apelberg BJ - PLoS ONE (2015)

Bottom Line: We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product.Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Resilience and Regulatory Effects, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Background: Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.

Methods and findings: We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.

Conclusion: Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Tobacco use status transitions for a two product model formulation.Transition behaviors (illustrated by directed edges) are categorized into four groups: initiation, cessation, switching, and relapse. Nine possible use states are represented as boxes in which the first and second terms correspond to use of the first and second product, respectively.
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pone.0121008.g001: Tobacco use status transitions for a two product model formulation.Transition behaviors (illustrated by directed edges) are categorized into four groups: initiation, cessation, switching, and relapse. Nine possible use states are represented as boxes in which the first and second terms correspond to use of the first and second product, respectively.

Mentions: The full set of product use states and transitions for a two-product model formulation are represented in Fig. 1. The number of members of a population subgroup who change tobacco use states is calculated as a function of sex, age, and current and past use of tobacco products. The number of members of a subgroup who survive or die is a function of sex, age, and tobacco use status, including time since cessation for former users.


Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Vugrin ED, Rostron BL, Verzi SJ, Brodsky NS, Brown TJ, Choiniere CJ, Coleman BN, Paredes A, Apelberg BJ - PLoS ONE (2015)

Tobacco use status transitions for a two product model formulation.Transition behaviors (illustrated by directed edges) are categorized into four groups: initiation, cessation, switching, and relapse. Nine possible use states are represented as boxes in which the first and second terms correspond to use of the first and second product, respectively.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4376806&req=5

pone.0121008.g001: Tobacco use status transitions for a two product model formulation.Transition behaviors (illustrated by directed edges) are categorized into four groups: initiation, cessation, switching, and relapse. Nine possible use states are represented as boxes in which the first and second terms correspond to use of the first and second product, respectively.
Mentions: The full set of product use states and transitions for a two-product model formulation are represented in Fig. 1. The number of members of a population subgroup who change tobacco use states is calculated as a function of sex, age, and current and past use of tobacco products. The number of members of a subgroup who survive or die is a function of sex, age, and tobacco use status, including time since cessation for former users.

Bottom Line: We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product.Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Resilience and Regulatory Effects, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Background: Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.

Methods and findings: We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.

Conclusion: Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus