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Development and validation of osteoporosis prescreening model for Iranian postmenopausal women.

Matin N, Tabatabaie O, Keshtkar A, Yazdani K, Asadi M - J Diabetes Metab Disord (2015)

Bottom Line: Using a cut-off of -2.5 for the model, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72%, 59.5%, 64% and 69% respectively.The model performance was tested in the test set.OPMIP correctly classified 67.10% of cases with a sensitivity and specificity of 73.2% and 61%.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

ABSTRACT

Background: Studies have indicated that the commonly used osteoporosis prescreening tools are not appropriate for use in every nation. This study was designed to develop and validate a prescreening model for bone mineral densitometry among Iranian postmenopausal women.

Methods: From 13613 individuals who were referred for bone mineral densitometry in Shariati hospital in Tehran, 8644 postmenopausal women were considered for the study after excluding men and premenopausal women. Questionnaires regarding the risk factors for osteoporosis were filled for each individual. Bone mineral density at the lumbar vertebrae (L2-L4), femoral neck and total femur was measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Using holdout validation, the study sample was divided into two parts; training set (5705) and test set (2939). Logistic regression analysis was performed on the training set. A scoring model was developed and tested in the test set.

Results: Based on the training set, a seven-variable model named OPMIP (Osteoporosis Prescreening Model for Iranian Postmenopausal women) was developed with C statistics (area under curve) of 0.72. Using a cut-off of -2.5 for the model, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72%, 59.5%, 64% and 69% respectively. The model performance was tested in the test set. OPMIP correctly classified 67.10% of cases with a sensitivity and specificity of 73.2% and 61%.

Conclusions: In order to appropriately refer patients for a bone mineral densitometry, OPMIP can be used as a prescreening tool in Iranian Postmenopausal women.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The ROC curve for the OPMIP in the training set.
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Fig2: The ROC curve for the OPMIP in the training set.

Mentions: ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis was performed on the final scoring model. The ROC curve for the model in the training set is shown in Figure 2. The full model has a C statistic (area under curve) of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74) and a Hosmer Lemeshow statistic of 10.40 (P-value: 0.23). Based on the ROC curve analysis, a cut-off point of −2.5 was selected as appropriate for this model. The score of −2.5 correctly classifies 66% of patients with a sensitivity of 72.60% and specificity of 59.45%. The OPMIP score of −2.5 or more, identifies 72% of women with a BMD score of 2 or more SDs below the mean who should be referred for a DXA scan.Figure 2


Development and validation of osteoporosis prescreening model for Iranian postmenopausal women.

Matin N, Tabatabaie O, Keshtkar A, Yazdani K, Asadi M - J Diabetes Metab Disord (2015)

The ROC curve for the OPMIP in the training set.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4376506&req=5

Fig2: The ROC curve for the OPMIP in the training set.
Mentions: ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis was performed on the final scoring model. The ROC curve for the model in the training set is shown in Figure 2. The full model has a C statistic (area under curve) of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74) and a Hosmer Lemeshow statistic of 10.40 (P-value: 0.23). Based on the ROC curve analysis, a cut-off point of −2.5 was selected as appropriate for this model. The score of −2.5 correctly classifies 66% of patients with a sensitivity of 72.60% and specificity of 59.45%. The OPMIP score of −2.5 or more, identifies 72% of women with a BMD score of 2 or more SDs below the mean who should be referred for a DXA scan.Figure 2

Bottom Line: Using a cut-off of -2.5 for the model, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72%, 59.5%, 64% and 69% respectively.The model performance was tested in the test set.OPMIP correctly classified 67.10% of cases with a sensitivity and specificity of 73.2% and 61%.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

ABSTRACT

Background: Studies have indicated that the commonly used osteoporosis prescreening tools are not appropriate for use in every nation. This study was designed to develop and validate a prescreening model for bone mineral densitometry among Iranian postmenopausal women.

Methods: From 13613 individuals who were referred for bone mineral densitometry in Shariati hospital in Tehran, 8644 postmenopausal women were considered for the study after excluding men and premenopausal women. Questionnaires regarding the risk factors for osteoporosis were filled for each individual. Bone mineral density at the lumbar vertebrae (L2-L4), femoral neck and total femur was measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Using holdout validation, the study sample was divided into two parts; training set (5705) and test set (2939). Logistic regression analysis was performed on the training set. A scoring model was developed and tested in the test set.

Results: Based on the training set, a seven-variable model named OPMIP (Osteoporosis Prescreening Model for Iranian Postmenopausal women) was developed with C statistics (area under curve) of 0.72. Using a cut-off of -2.5 for the model, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72%, 59.5%, 64% and 69% respectively. The model performance was tested in the test set. OPMIP correctly classified 67.10% of cases with a sensitivity and specificity of 73.2% and 61%.

Conclusions: In order to appropriately refer patients for a bone mineral densitometry, OPMIP can be used as a prescreening tool in Iranian Postmenopausal women.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus