Quantifying the impact of decay in bed-net efficacy on malaria transmission.
Bottom Line: The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness.We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease in ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time.These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes.
Affiliation: Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA; National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, Knoxville, TN 37996-1527, USA. Electronic address: Calistus_Ngonghala@hms.harvard.edu.Show MeSH
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Mentions: The PRCCs presented in Fig. 10 correspond to day 365; however, the dynamics of the PRCCs may vary over time. Hence, to fully characterize how sensitive the infectious human population is to the parameters of system (2.4), we investigate the evolution of the PRCCs over time. Fig. 11 shows the dynamics of the PRCCs for 0<t≤3000 days. Observe that only the parameters α, γ̃h, and νh have significant influence on the infectious class, Ih, initially. However, as time progresses, there is a clear demarcation between statistically significant PRCCs (shown in Fig. 11) and non-statistically significant PRCCs (not shown in Fig. 11), with non-statistically significant PRCCs clustered around the horizontal axis. Note that in this study, a PRCC is considered to be statistically significant if the p-value is less than 10−5. The dashed-dotted vertical line in Fig. 11 highlights the PRCCs on day 365, which are illustrated in Fig. 10.
Affiliation: Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA; National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, Knoxville, TN 37996-1527, USA. Electronic address: Calistus_Ngonghala@hms.harvard.edu.