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Structured additive regression models with spatial correlation to estimate under-five mortality risk factors in Ethiopia.

Ayele DG, Zewotir TT, Mwambi HG - BMC Public Health (2015)

Bottom Line: With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the mortality.The model enables simultaneous modeling of possible nonlinear effects of covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity.Our findings are relevant because the identified risk factors can be used to provide priority areas for intervention activities by the government to combat under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01, Pietermaritzburg, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa. ayele@ukzn.ac.za.

ABSTRACT

Background: The risk of a child dying before reaching five years of age is highest in Sub-Saharan African countries. But Child mortality rates have shown substantial decline in Ethiopia. It is important to identify factors affecting under-five mortality.

Methods: A structured additive logistic regression model which accounts the spatial correlation was adopted to estimate under-five mortality risk factors. The 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data was used for this study.

Results: The analysis showed that the risk of under-five mortality increases as the family size approaches seven and keeps increasing. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the mortality. Moreover, for older mothers, the chance of their child to dying before reaching five is diminishes.

Conclusion: The model enables simultaneous modeling of possible nonlinear effects of covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Our findings are relevant because the identified risk factors can be used to provide priority areas for intervention activities by the government to combat under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Observed mortality risk of children under five years of age for 624 EAs across Ethiopia.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection

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Fig1: Observed mortality risk of children under five years of age for 624 EAs across Ethiopia.

Mentions: FigureĀ 1 shows child mortality per sampled EA across all regions of Ethiopia. It clearly demonstrates that the Tigray, Benshangul-Gumuz and SNNP regions registered higher child mortality rate than the other regions during the survey period. However, the Amhara and Oromia regions registered the lowest mortality risk.Figure 1


Structured additive regression models with spatial correlation to estimate under-five mortality risk factors in Ethiopia.

Ayele DG, Zewotir TT, Mwambi HG - BMC Public Health (2015)

Observed mortality risk of children under five years of age for 624 EAs across Ethiopia.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4373119&req=5

Fig1: Observed mortality risk of children under five years of age for 624 EAs across Ethiopia.
Mentions: FigureĀ 1 shows child mortality per sampled EA across all regions of Ethiopia. It clearly demonstrates that the Tigray, Benshangul-Gumuz and SNNP regions registered higher child mortality rate than the other regions during the survey period. However, the Amhara and Oromia regions registered the lowest mortality risk.Figure 1

Bottom Line: With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the mortality.The model enables simultaneous modeling of possible nonlinear effects of covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity.Our findings are relevant because the identified risk factors can be used to provide priority areas for intervention activities by the government to combat under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01, Pietermaritzburg, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa. ayele@ukzn.ac.za.

ABSTRACT

Background: The risk of a child dying before reaching five years of age is highest in Sub-Saharan African countries. But Child mortality rates have shown substantial decline in Ethiopia. It is important to identify factors affecting under-five mortality.

Methods: A structured additive logistic regression model which accounts the spatial correlation was adopted to estimate under-five mortality risk factors. The 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data was used for this study.

Results: The analysis showed that the risk of under-five mortality increases as the family size approaches seven and keeps increasing. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the mortality. Moreover, for older mothers, the chance of their child to dying before reaching five is diminishes.

Conclusion: The model enables simultaneous modeling of possible nonlinear effects of covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Our findings are relevant because the identified risk factors can be used to provide priority areas for intervention activities by the government to combat under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus