Limits...
Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange MA, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Xoplaki E - Clim Change (2012)

Bottom Line: The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions.Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase.In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany ; King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451 Saudi Arabia.

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5-7°C between the 1961-1990 reference period and the period 2070-2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Changes in the length of the growing season in days/year for the period 2040–2069 relative to the control period 1961–1990, calculated from PRECIS output. Note that frost free areas appear white
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Fig8: Changes in the length of the growing season in days/year for the period 2040–2069 relative to the control period 1961–1990, calculated from PRECIS output. Note that frost free areas appear white

Mentions: The EMME has a high biodiversity, notably of plant species, related to the large gradients in topography, soil fertility and climate conditions. During the past millennia the conversion of natural ecosystems into croplands and overgrazing have already strongly shaped the land cover. The EMME encompasses sub-regions that are very suitable for agriculture, whereas others are not. Our PRECIS projections suggest that the milder winters in the north will be associated with a lengthening of the growing season by about one month per year by mid-century (Fig. 8). However, this advantageous influence will likely be overshadowed by the adverse consequences of extreme weather conditions; for example, the increasing number of very hot days (TX > 35°C) by 2–4 weeks/year, and the decrease of soil moisture.Fig. 8


Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange MA, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Xoplaki E - Clim Change (2012)

Changes in the length of the growing season in days/year for the period 2040–2069 relative to the control period 1961–1990, calculated from PRECIS output. Note that frost free areas appear white
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4372776&req=5

Fig8: Changes in the length of the growing season in days/year for the period 2040–2069 relative to the control period 1961–1990, calculated from PRECIS output. Note that frost free areas appear white
Mentions: The EMME has a high biodiversity, notably of plant species, related to the large gradients in topography, soil fertility and climate conditions. During the past millennia the conversion of natural ecosystems into croplands and overgrazing have already strongly shaped the land cover. The EMME encompasses sub-regions that are very suitable for agriculture, whereas others are not. Our PRECIS projections suggest that the milder winters in the north will be associated with a lengthening of the growing season by about one month per year by mid-century (Fig. 8). However, this advantageous influence will likely be overshadowed by the adverse consequences of extreme weather conditions; for example, the increasing number of very hot days (TX > 35°C) by 2–4 weeks/year, and the decrease of soil moisture.Fig. 8

Bottom Line: The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions.Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase.In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany ; King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451 Saudi Arabia.

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5-7°C between the 1961-1990 reference period and the period 2070-2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus