Limits...
Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange MA, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Xoplaki E - Clim Change (2012)

Bottom Line: The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions.Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase.In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany ; King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451 Saudi Arabia.

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5-7°C between the 1961-1990 reference period and the period 2070-2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Probability density distributions of daytime maximum temperatures (TX) in the periods 1961–1990 (blue), 2010–2039 (orange), 2040–2069 (red) and 2070–2099 (magenta), calculated from PRECIS output
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Fig7: Probability density distributions of daytime maximum temperatures (TX) in the periods 1961–1990 (blue), 2010–2039 (orange), 2040–2069 (red) and 2070–2099 (magenta), calculated from PRECIS output

Mentions: Figure 7 presents the kernel densities, i.e. the non-parametric estimates of the probability density functions (Wilks 2006), derived from the daytime maximum temperature (TX) calculated by PRECIS, for a selection of the capital cities within the EMME region. At all locations during the 1961–1990 period (blue line) the distributions have two peaks (bimodal), the first mode representing the cold (i.e. mild) season and the second the warm season (in agreement with observations; see Hadjinicolaou et al. 2010). In the northern and western EMME (e.g. Ankara, Athens, Nicosia) the first mode is higher, indicating the prevalence of cool and mild conditions during late autumn, winter and early spring. In the locations of capitals towards the eastern and southern EMME the second mode dominates, which illustrates the long duration of the warm season (Fig. 7). In the future periods, a gradual shift of the density curves to the right occurs, being most pronounced for the second mode. The peak heights decrease, though not very strongly. The changing tails of the distributions demonstrate the importance of increasing hot extremes, up to 5–6°C by the end-of-century.Fig. 7


Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange MA, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Xoplaki E - Clim Change (2012)

Probability density distributions of daytime maximum temperatures (TX) in the periods 1961–1990 (blue), 2010–2039 (orange), 2040–2069 (red) and 2070–2099 (magenta), calculated from PRECIS output
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4372776&req=5

Fig7: Probability density distributions of daytime maximum temperatures (TX) in the periods 1961–1990 (blue), 2010–2039 (orange), 2040–2069 (red) and 2070–2099 (magenta), calculated from PRECIS output
Mentions: Figure 7 presents the kernel densities, i.e. the non-parametric estimates of the probability density functions (Wilks 2006), derived from the daytime maximum temperature (TX) calculated by PRECIS, for a selection of the capital cities within the EMME region. At all locations during the 1961–1990 period (blue line) the distributions have two peaks (bimodal), the first mode representing the cold (i.e. mild) season and the second the warm season (in agreement with observations; see Hadjinicolaou et al. 2010). In the northern and western EMME (e.g. Ankara, Athens, Nicosia) the first mode is higher, indicating the prevalence of cool and mild conditions during late autumn, winter and early spring. In the locations of capitals towards the eastern and southern EMME the second mode dominates, which illustrates the long duration of the warm season (Fig. 7). In the future periods, a gradual shift of the density curves to the right occurs, being most pronounced for the second mode. The peak heights decrease, though not very strongly. The changing tails of the distributions demonstrate the importance of increasing hot extremes, up to 5–6°C by the end-of-century.Fig. 7

Bottom Line: The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions.Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase.In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany ; King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451 Saudi Arabia.

ABSTRACT

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5-7°C between the 1961-1990 reference period and the period 2070-2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus