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Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation.

Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J - Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. (2015)

Bottom Line: Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past.Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability.From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus y.proestos@cyi.ac.cy.

ABSTRACT
Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

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(a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability change between the future and reference periods. Areas with hsi less than 10% have not been considered.
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RSTB20130554F9: (a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability change between the future and reference periods. Areas with hsi less than 10% have not been considered.

Mentions: The above results are summarized by the actual difference ΔS in habitat suitability pattern presented in figures 8 and 9. Note that before taking the difference between the fields, we excluded areas with hsi less than 10% as they are insignificant for mosquito survival. A pronounced decrease in habitat suitability is manifest in the South American tropical rainforest and savannah regions, representing a change in the suitable range by more than 50%. A similar decrease occurs in the southeastern Asian nations Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, all in the Ae. albopictus native habitat zone. In contrast, we project an increased suitability over the northeastern United States, driven by the simulated warmer temperatures in future in conjunction with the increased RH. Overall, it appears that climate change induces a poleward shift of the suitable habitat conditions that is most apparent in Europe, the United States and eastern Asia, and to a lesser degree in southern Africa and Australia. For habitat suitability changes in specific regions around the globe, we refer to the electronic supplementary material, figure S11.Figure 8.


Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation.

Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J - Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. (2015)

(a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability change between the future and reference periods. Areas with hsi less than 10% have not been considered.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4342960&req=5

RSTB20130554F9: (a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability change between the future and reference periods. Areas with hsi less than 10% have not been considered.
Mentions: The above results are summarized by the actual difference ΔS in habitat suitability pattern presented in figures 8 and 9. Note that before taking the difference between the fields, we excluded areas with hsi less than 10% as they are insignificant for mosquito survival. A pronounced decrease in habitat suitability is manifest in the South American tropical rainforest and savannah regions, representing a change in the suitable range by more than 50%. A similar decrease occurs in the southeastern Asian nations Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, all in the Ae. albopictus native habitat zone. In contrast, we project an increased suitability over the northeastern United States, driven by the simulated warmer temperatures in future in conjunction with the increased RH. Overall, it appears that climate change induces a poleward shift of the suitable habitat conditions that is most apparent in Europe, the United States and eastern Asia, and to a lesser degree in southern Africa and Australia. For habitat suitability changes in specific regions around the globe, we refer to the electronic supplementary material, figure S11.Figure 8.

Bottom Line: Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past.Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability.From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus y.proestos@cyi.ac.cy.

ABSTRACT
Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus