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Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation.

Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J - Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. (2015)

Bottom Line: Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past.Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability.From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus y.proestos@cyi.ac.cy.

ABSTRACT
Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

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(a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability based on the high-resolution climate model results (T255) for the recent period 2000–2009. The (green) dots show the locations where presence of Ae. albopictus has been reported according to the CABI database.
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RSTB20130554F5: (a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability based on the high-resolution climate model results (T255) for the recent period 2000–2009. The (green) dots show the locations where presence of Ae. albopictus has been reported according to the CABI database.

Mentions: Figure 4a shows that the Ae. albopictus climatically suitable region of Southeast Asia is captured by our vector distribution model, with an hsi above 90% in most areas. Owing to the lack of publicly available geospatial (gridded) data of the current presence or absence of Ae. albopictus outside its native range of Southeast Asia, the assessment of our vector distribution model results is limited. However, a qualitative evaluation can be conducted based on online information made available by CABI, a non-profit international organization concerned with environmental issues [2,62]. Following a simple analysis approach, by comparing the global occurrence (e.g. location coordinates) [2] against the corresponding ones from the habitat suitability map, it is evident that approximately 70% of the (sparse) geo-referenced data from the CABI database occur in the region of at least 35% hsi, estimated by the species' spatial distribution model. The several misses in non-climatically suitable locations (e.g. western India) are possibly associated with the fact that urban environments, which may help reproduce the necessary climatic conditions for mosquito establishment (e.g. providing water containers in dry areas), have not been explicitly considered in our vector distribution model. The coincidence with the vector distribution model prediction, under the current climatic conditions, is depicted in figures 4 and 5. Apart from the fact that a number of points reported in the CABI database refer only to the country level, it should also be noted that in some of the reported locations Ae. albopictus may have already been eradicated or is under control. Therefore, it will be essential for the community to establish a global network that reliably monitors the vector distribution, and the data should be publicly available.Figure 4.


Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation.

Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K, Tanarhte M, Waldock J, Lelieveld J - Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. (2015)

(a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability based on the high-resolution climate model results (T255) for the recent period 2000–2009. The (green) dots show the locations where presence of Ae. albopictus has been reported according to the CABI database.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4342960&req=5

RSTB20130554F5: (a) North American and (b) European maps of the habitat suitability based on the high-resolution climate model results (T255) for the recent period 2000–2009. The (green) dots show the locations where presence of Ae. albopictus has been reported according to the CABI database.
Mentions: Figure 4a shows that the Ae. albopictus climatically suitable region of Southeast Asia is captured by our vector distribution model, with an hsi above 90% in most areas. Owing to the lack of publicly available geospatial (gridded) data of the current presence or absence of Ae. albopictus outside its native range of Southeast Asia, the assessment of our vector distribution model results is limited. However, a qualitative evaluation can be conducted based on online information made available by CABI, a non-profit international organization concerned with environmental issues [2,62]. Following a simple analysis approach, by comparing the global occurrence (e.g. location coordinates) [2] against the corresponding ones from the habitat suitability map, it is evident that approximately 70% of the (sparse) geo-referenced data from the CABI database occur in the region of at least 35% hsi, estimated by the species' spatial distribution model. The several misses in non-climatically suitable locations (e.g. western India) are possibly associated with the fact that urban environments, which may help reproduce the necessary climatic conditions for mosquito establishment (e.g. providing water containers in dry areas), have not been explicitly considered in our vector distribution model. The coincidence with the vector distribution model prediction, under the current climatic conditions, is depicted in figures 4 and 5. Apart from the fact that a number of points reported in the CABI database refer only to the country level, it should also be noted that in some of the reported locations Ae. albopictus may have already been eradicated or is under control. Therefore, it will be essential for the community to establish a global network that reliably monitors the vector distribution, and the data should be publicly available.Figure 4.

Bottom Line: Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past.Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability.From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus y.proestos@cyi.ac.cy.

ABSTRACT
Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus