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Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of ebola in sierra leone and liberia.

Rivers CM, Lofgren ET, Marathe M, Eubank S, Lewis BL - PLoS Curr (2014)

Bottom Line: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak.The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.

ABSTRACT

Background: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts.

Methods: We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients.

Findings: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.

Interpretation: Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Red dots depict the reported number of cumulative cases of Ebola in each country, with the black line indicating the deterministic model fit. Each blue line indicates one of two hundred and fifty stochastic simulated forecasts of the epidemic, with areas of denser color indicating larger numbers of forecasts.
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d35e368: Red dots depict the reported number of cumulative cases of Ebola in each country, with the black line indicating the deterministic model fit. Each blue line indicates one of two hundred and fifty stochastic simulated forecasts of the epidemic, with areas of denser color indicating larger numbers of forecasts.


Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of ebola in sierra leone and liberia.

Rivers CM, Lofgren ET, Marathe M, Eubank S, Lewis BL - PLoS Curr (2014)

Red dots depict the reported number of cumulative cases of Ebola in each country, with the black line indicating the deterministic model fit. Each blue line indicates one of two hundred and fifty stochastic simulated forecasts of the epidemic, with areas of denser color indicating larger numbers of forecasts.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4325479&req=5

d35e368: Red dots depict the reported number of cumulative cases of Ebola in each country, with the black line indicating the deterministic model fit. Each blue line indicates one of two hundred and fifty stochastic simulated forecasts of the epidemic, with areas of denser color indicating larger numbers of forecasts.
Bottom Line: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak.The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.

ABSTRACT

Background: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts.

Methods: We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients.

Findings: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.

Interpretation: Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus