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A model of the 2014 ebola epidemic in west Africa with contact tracing.

Webb G, Browne C, Huo X, Seydi O, Seydi M, Magal P - PLoS Curr (2015)

Bottom Line: The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country.The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies.These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.

ABSTRACT
A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

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A model of the 2014 ebola epidemic in west Africa with contact tracing.

Webb G, Browne C, Huo X, Seydi O, Seydi M, Magal P - PLoS Curr (2015)

© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4323422&req=5

Bottom Line: The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country.The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies.These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.

ABSTRACT
A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus