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A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.

Lewsey JD, Lawson KD, Ford I, Fox KA, Ritchie LD, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Watt GC, Woodward M, Kent S, Neilson M, Briggs AH - Heart (2014)

Bottom Line: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions.Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically.Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.

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Structure of the state transition model. CBVD, cerebrovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; CPD, cigarettes per day; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L); SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; SBP, systolic blood pressure (mm Hg); TC, total cholesterol (mmol/L).
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HEARTJNL2014305637F1: Structure of the state transition model. CBVD, cerebrovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; CPD, cigarettes per day; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L); SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; SBP, systolic blood pressure (mm Hg); TC, total cholesterol (mmol/L).

Mentions: As for ASSIGN, the endpoints of our model are non-fatal CHD hospitalisation, non-fatal CBVD hospitalisation and deaths from CVD. However, with the focus on life expectancy we also needed to consider deaths from non-CVD causes and the additional life expectancy experienced after a non-fatal CHD or CBVD event. Figure 1 illustrates the structure of the state transition model. People enter the model in the CVD event-free state and then transit into one of four events ‘competing’ to be first. If a hospitalised patient died within 28 days of their admission the first event was reclassified as fatal. If the first event experienced is non-fatal, then there is a final transition to death. Men and women were modelled separately.


A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.

Lewsey JD, Lawson KD, Ford I, Fox KA, Ritchie LD, Tunstall-Pedoe H, Watt GC, Woodward M, Kent S, Neilson M, Briggs AH - Heart (2014)

Structure of the state transition model. CBVD, cerebrovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; CPD, cigarettes per day; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L); SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; SBP, systolic blood pressure (mm Hg); TC, total cholesterol (mmol/L).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4316925&req=5

HEARTJNL2014305637F1: Structure of the state transition model. CBVD, cerebrovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; CPD, cigarettes per day; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/L); SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; SBP, systolic blood pressure (mm Hg); TC, total cholesterol (mmol/L).
Mentions: As for ASSIGN, the endpoints of our model are non-fatal CHD hospitalisation, non-fatal CBVD hospitalisation and deaths from CVD. However, with the focus on life expectancy we also needed to consider deaths from non-CVD causes and the additional life expectancy experienced after a non-fatal CHD or CBVD event. Figure 1 illustrates the structure of the state transition model. People enter the model in the CVD event-free state and then transit into one of four events ‘competing’ to be first. If a hospitalised patient died within 28 days of their admission the first event was reclassified as fatal. If the first event experienced is non-fatal, then there is a final transition to death. Men and women were modelled separately.

Bottom Line: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions.Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically.Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus