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Introducing conjoint analysis method into delayed lotteries studies: its validity and time stability are higher than in adjusting.

Białek M, Markiewicz Ł, Sawicki P - Front Psychol (2015)

Bottom Line: A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting.The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting.We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Economic Psychology Department, Centre for Economic Psychology and Decision Sciences, Kozminski University Warsaw, Poland.

ABSTRACT
The delayed lotteries are much more common in everyday life than are pure lotteries. Usually, we need to wait to find out the outcome of the risky decision (e.g., investing in a stock market, engaging in a relationship). However, most research has studied the time discounting and probability discounting in isolation using the methodologies designed specifically to track changes in one parameter. Most commonly used method is adjusting, but its reported validity and time stability in research on discounting are suboptimal. The goal of this study was to introduce the novel method for analyzing delayed lotteries-conjoint analysis-which hypothetically is more suitable for analyzing individual preferences in this area. A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting. The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting. We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods.

No MeSH data available.


The Study 2 design.
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Figure 4: The Study 2 design.

Mentions: The design of Study 2 is presented in Figure 4.


Introducing conjoint analysis method into delayed lotteries studies: its validity and time stability are higher than in adjusting.

Białek M, Markiewicz Ł, Sawicki P - Front Psychol (2015)

The Study 2 design.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4309168&req=5

Figure 4: The Study 2 design.
Mentions: The design of Study 2 is presented in Figure 4.

Bottom Line: A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting.The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting.We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Economic Psychology Department, Centre for Economic Psychology and Decision Sciences, Kozminski University Warsaw, Poland.

ABSTRACT
The delayed lotteries are much more common in everyday life than are pure lotteries. Usually, we need to wait to find out the outcome of the risky decision (e.g., investing in a stock market, engaging in a relationship). However, most research has studied the time discounting and probability discounting in isolation using the methodologies designed specifically to track changes in one parameter. Most commonly used method is adjusting, but its reported validity and time stability in research on discounting are suboptimal. The goal of this study was to introduce the novel method for analyzing delayed lotteries-conjoint analysis-which hypothetically is more suitable for analyzing individual preferences in this area. A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting. The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting. We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods.

No MeSH data available.