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Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years.

Kullberg C, Fransson T, Hedlund J, Jonzén N, Langvall O, Nilsson J, Bolmgren K - Ambio (2015)

Bottom Line: There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants.Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden.The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, cecilia.kullberg@zoologi.su.se.

ABSTRACT
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

No MeSH data available.


Difference in first arrival (median, 25 and 75% percentiles) between historical and present-day dataset in southern and central Sweden for short and long-distance migrants, respectively. Statistical p values from Mann–Whitney U test (comparing within latitude) and Wilcoxon matched pairs test (comparing within migration group) are indicated by *(p < 0.05), **(p < 0.01) and n.s. (p > 0.05)
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Fig3: Difference in first arrival (median, 25 and 75% percentiles) between historical and present-day dataset in southern and central Sweden for short and long-distance migrants, respectively. Statistical p values from Mann–Whitney U test (comparing within latitude) and Wilcoxon matched pairs test (comparing within migration group) are indicated by *(p < 0.05), **(p < 0.01) and n.s. (p > 0.05)

Mentions: To analyze changes over time in pattern of migration, we compared relative differences between historical and present-day datasets for short and long-distance migrants. Short-distance migrants had advanced their arrival to southern Sweden more over time than long-distance migrants (Mann–Whitney U test: nshort = 8; nlong = 6; z = 2.9; p < 0.01; Fig. 3). However, no such difference between long- and short-distance migrants could be seen in central Sweden (Mann–Whitney U test: nshort = 8; nlong = 6; z = 1.3; p = 0.2; Fig. 3). In long-distance migrants, the difference in first arrival between the historical and present-day dataset did not differ between southern and central Sweden (Wilcoxon matched pairs test: n = 6; z = 0.1; p = 0.9; Fig. 3). However, for short-distance migrants there was a larger difference in first arrival between the two data sets in southern than in central Sweden (Wilcoxon matched pairs test: n = 8; z = 2.2; p < 0.02; Fig. 3).Fig. 3


Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years.

Kullberg C, Fransson T, Hedlund J, Jonzén N, Langvall O, Nilsson J, Bolmgren K - Ambio (2015)

Difference in first arrival (median, 25 and 75% percentiles) between historical and present-day dataset in southern and central Sweden for short and long-distance migrants, respectively. Statistical p values from Mann–Whitney U test (comparing within latitude) and Wilcoxon matched pairs test (comparing within migration group) are indicated by *(p < 0.05), **(p < 0.01) and n.s. (p > 0.05)
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4289004&req=5

Fig3: Difference in first arrival (median, 25 and 75% percentiles) between historical and present-day dataset in southern and central Sweden for short and long-distance migrants, respectively. Statistical p values from Mann–Whitney U test (comparing within latitude) and Wilcoxon matched pairs test (comparing within migration group) are indicated by *(p < 0.05), **(p < 0.01) and n.s. (p > 0.05)
Mentions: To analyze changes over time in pattern of migration, we compared relative differences between historical and present-day datasets for short and long-distance migrants. Short-distance migrants had advanced their arrival to southern Sweden more over time than long-distance migrants (Mann–Whitney U test: nshort = 8; nlong = 6; z = 2.9; p < 0.01; Fig. 3). However, no such difference between long- and short-distance migrants could be seen in central Sweden (Mann–Whitney U test: nshort = 8; nlong = 6; z = 1.3; p = 0.2; Fig. 3). In long-distance migrants, the difference in first arrival between the historical and present-day dataset did not differ between southern and central Sweden (Wilcoxon matched pairs test: n = 6; z = 0.1; p = 0.9; Fig. 3). However, for short-distance migrants there was a larger difference in first arrival between the two data sets in southern than in central Sweden (Wilcoxon matched pairs test: n = 8; z = 2.2; p < 0.02; Fig. 3).Fig. 3

Bottom Line: There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants.Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden.The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, cecilia.kullberg@zoologi.su.se.

ABSTRACT
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

No MeSH data available.