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Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years.

Kullberg C, Fransson T, Hedlund J, Jonzén N, Langvall O, Nilsson J, Bolmgren K - Ambio (2015)

Bottom Line: There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants.Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden.The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, cecilia.kullberg@zoologi.su.se.

ABSTRACT
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

No MeSH data available.


Difference in days between first arrival to southern and central Sweden in relation to first arrival day of year (DOY) in southern Sweden for each species, according to the historical (a) and present day (b) model. Numbers at each marker correspond to the species number in Table 1. Open circles represent short-distance migrants and filled squares represent long-distance migrants. DOY 50 represents February 19, while DOY 100 represents April 10
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Fig2: Difference in days between first arrival to southern and central Sweden in relation to first arrival day of year (DOY) in southern Sweden for each species, according to the historical (a) and present day (b) model. Numbers at each marker correspond to the species number in Table 1. Open circles represent short-distance migrants and filled squares represent long-distance migrants. DOY 50 represents February 19, while DOY 100 represents April 10

Mentions: There was a strong negative relationship between first arrival date in southern Sweden and how many days later the species arrive to central Sweden, both in the historical model (linear regression; n = 14, r2 = 0.74, p < 0.0001; Fig. 2a) and the present day model (linear regression: n = 14, r2 = 0.79, p < 0.0001; Fig. 2b). In both the historical and present-day data, short-distance migrants arrived earlier in the spring and took longer time to arrive at more northern sites, while long-distance migrants arrived later and were quicker to reach northern sites (Fig. 2).Fig. 2


Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years.

Kullberg C, Fransson T, Hedlund J, Jonzén N, Langvall O, Nilsson J, Bolmgren K - Ambio (2015)

Difference in days between first arrival to southern and central Sweden in relation to first arrival day of year (DOY) in southern Sweden for each species, according to the historical (a) and present day (b) model. Numbers at each marker correspond to the species number in Table 1. Open circles represent short-distance migrants and filled squares represent long-distance migrants. DOY 50 represents February 19, while DOY 100 represents April 10
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4289004&req=5

Fig2: Difference in days between first arrival to southern and central Sweden in relation to first arrival day of year (DOY) in southern Sweden for each species, according to the historical (a) and present day (b) model. Numbers at each marker correspond to the species number in Table 1. Open circles represent short-distance migrants and filled squares represent long-distance migrants. DOY 50 represents February 19, while DOY 100 represents April 10
Mentions: There was a strong negative relationship between first arrival date in southern Sweden and how many days later the species arrive to central Sweden, both in the historical model (linear regression; n = 14, r2 = 0.74, p < 0.0001; Fig. 2a) and the present day model (linear regression: n = 14, r2 = 0.79, p < 0.0001; Fig. 2b). In both the historical and present-day data, short-distance migrants arrived earlier in the spring and took longer time to arrive at more northern sites, while long-distance migrants arrived later and were quicker to reach northern sites (Fig. 2).Fig. 2

Bottom Line: There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants.Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden.The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, cecilia.kullberg@zoologi.su.se.

ABSTRACT
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.

No MeSH data available.