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Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.

Moor H, Hylander K, Norberg J - Ambio (2015)

Bottom Line: We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types.Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary.The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, helen.moor@su.se.

ABSTRACT
Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

No MeSH data available.


Predicted proportional change of categorical trait levels in the three wetland types, for the five regions. a–c Plant functional groups (PFGs) in the field layer. d–f Clonal growth form in the field layer. g–i Leaf persistence in both field and shrub layers, shown as change in proportion of persistent green species
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Fig3: Predicted proportional change of categorical trait levels in the three wetland types, for the five regions. a–c Plant functional groups (PFGs) in the field layer. d–f Clonal growth form in the field layer. g–i Leaf persistence in both field and shrub layers, shown as change in proportion of persistent green species

Mentions: The RD decreases in field layers of bogs and riparian wetlands, whereas in fens, RD is predicted to increase in the field layer (Fig. 2e), consistent with the pattern of change in rhizomatous species (Fig. 3d, e), suggesting larger belowground biomass in fens. Also in the shrub layer, RD increases in fens (Fig. 2f). In shrub layers of bogs and riparian wetlands, RD overall tends to decrease, but shows a spatially more variable pattern (Fig. 2f), again due to above-mentioned regional differences in relative changes of R. tomentosum, S. cinerea ,and S. caprea.Fig. 3


Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.

Moor H, Hylander K, Norberg J - Ambio (2015)

Predicted proportional change of categorical trait levels in the three wetland types, for the five regions. a–c Plant functional groups (PFGs) in the field layer. d–f Clonal growth form in the field layer. g–i Leaf persistence in both field and shrub layers, shown as change in proportion of persistent green species
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288999&req=5

Fig3: Predicted proportional change of categorical trait levels in the three wetland types, for the five regions. a–c Plant functional groups (PFGs) in the field layer. d–f Clonal growth form in the field layer. g–i Leaf persistence in both field and shrub layers, shown as change in proportion of persistent green species
Mentions: The RD decreases in field layers of bogs and riparian wetlands, whereas in fens, RD is predicted to increase in the field layer (Fig. 2e), consistent with the pattern of change in rhizomatous species (Fig. 3d, e), suggesting larger belowground biomass in fens. Also in the shrub layer, RD increases in fens (Fig. 2f). In shrub layers of bogs and riparian wetlands, RD overall tends to decrease, but shows a spatially more variable pattern (Fig. 2f), again due to above-mentioned regional differences in relative changes of R. tomentosum, S. cinerea ,and S. caprea.Fig. 3

Bottom Line: We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types.Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary.The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, helen.moor@su.se.

ABSTRACT
Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

No MeSH data available.