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Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.

Moor H, Hylander K, Norberg J - Ambio (2015)

Bottom Line: We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types.Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary.The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, helen.moor@su.se.

ABSTRACT
Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

No MeSH data available.


The five regions of species change in the NDB (region number and average elevation) and predicted temperature and precipitation changes. Mean annual temperature increases slightly more in the west, while the colder season gets relatively warmer in the east. Precipitation changes show a distinct gradient with strongest decreases in the west except during the coldest quarter, where precipitation slightly increases
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Fig1: The five regions of species change in the NDB (region number and average elevation) and predicted temperature and precipitation changes. Mean annual temperature increases slightly more in the west, while the colder season gets relatively warmer in the east. Precipitation changes show a distinct gradient with strongest decreases in the west except during the coldest quarter, where precipitation slightly increases

Mentions: Species’ occurrence data for the whole of Sweden were compiled from the Swedish National Wetland Inventory (Våtmarksinventeringen (VMI), Gunnarsson and Löfroth 2009), a nationwide effort where >4000 wetlands were surveyed in the field, generating plant species lists with estimates of plant abundance (on a scale of 1–3, details in Electronic Supplementary Material). We selected 113 functionally important wetland plants that are common and abundant in any of the three wetland classes with the goal of covering those species that together can dominate community biomass (Table 2). To address spatial heterogeneity within the catchment, we split the NDB into five regions of similar community change based on nonhierarchical K-means clustering of predicted species changes (Fig. 1).Table 2


Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.

Moor H, Hylander K, Norberg J - Ambio (2015)

The five regions of species change in the NDB (region number and average elevation) and predicted temperature and precipitation changes. Mean annual temperature increases slightly more in the west, while the colder season gets relatively warmer in the east. Precipitation changes show a distinct gradient with strongest decreases in the west except during the coldest quarter, where precipitation slightly increases
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288999&req=5

Fig1: The five regions of species change in the NDB (region number and average elevation) and predicted temperature and precipitation changes. Mean annual temperature increases slightly more in the west, while the colder season gets relatively warmer in the east. Precipitation changes show a distinct gradient with strongest decreases in the west except during the coldest quarter, where precipitation slightly increases
Mentions: Species’ occurrence data for the whole of Sweden were compiled from the Swedish National Wetland Inventory (Våtmarksinventeringen (VMI), Gunnarsson and Löfroth 2009), a nationwide effort where >4000 wetlands were surveyed in the field, generating plant species lists with estimates of plant abundance (on a scale of 1–3, details in Electronic Supplementary Material). We selected 113 functionally important wetland plants that are common and abundant in any of the three wetland classes with the goal of covering those species that together can dominate community biomass (Table 2). To address spatial heterogeneity within the catchment, we split the NDB into five regions of similar community change based on nonhierarchical K-means clustering of predicted species changes (Fig. 1).Table 2

Bottom Line: We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types.Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary.The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden, helen.moor@su.se.

ABSTRACT
Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

No MeSH data available.