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Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields.

van Wart J, Grassini P, Cassman KG - Glob Chang Biol (2013)

Bottom Line: In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12-19% of the absolute mean).We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain.An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA.

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Simulated maize Yw across four sites in the USA Corn Belt using weather data from NOAA-SR (a), NCEP (b), Climate Research Unit (c), and NASA (d) plotted against simulated Yw based on a control weather database. Insets show deviations of points from the 1:1 line for each site and year for which yield was simulated with GWD or NOAA data. RMSE and mean error units are in Mg ha−1. Symbols represent different locations. NASA Yw simulations were performed for the time interval 1997–2007. Average water deficit (mm) over the maize growing season, as determined by simulations using control-data, was −42 (Cedar Rapids, IA), −135 (Lincoln, NE), −149 (Grand Island, NE), and −238 (McCook, NE).
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fig02: Simulated maize Yw across four sites in the USA Corn Belt using weather data from NOAA-SR (a), NCEP (b), Climate Research Unit (c), and NASA (d) plotted against simulated Yw based on a control weather database. Insets show deviations of points from the 1:1 line for each site and year for which yield was simulated with GWD or NOAA data. RMSE and mean error units are in Mg ha−1. Symbols represent different locations. NASA Yw simulations were performed for the time interval 1997–2007. Average water deficit (mm) over the maize growing season, as determined by simulations using control-data, was −42 (Cedar Rapids, IA), −135 (Lincoln, NE), −149 (Grand Island, NE), and −238 (McCook, NE).


Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields.

van Wart J, Grassini P, Cassman KG - Glob Chang Biol (2013)

Simulated maize Yw across four sites in the USA Corn Belt using weather data from NOAA-SR (a), NCEP (b), Climate Research Unit (c), and NASA (d) plotted against simulated Yw based on a control weather database. Insets show deviations of points from the 1:1 line for each site and year for which yield was simulated with GWD or NOAA data. RMSE and mean error units are in Mg ha−1. Symbols represent different locations. NASA Yw simulations were performed for the time interval 1997–2007. Average water deficit (mm) over the maize growing season, as determined by simulations using control-data, was −42 (Cedar Rapids, IA), −135 (Lincoln, NE), −149 (Grand Island, NE), and −238 (McCook, NE).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288967&req=5

fig02: Simulated maize Yw across four sites in the USA Corn Belt using weather data from NOAA-SR (a), NCEP (b), Climate Research Unit (c), and NASA (d) plotted against simulated Yw based on a control weather database. Insets show deviations of points from the 1:1 line for each site and year for which yield was simulated with GWD or NOAA data. RMSE and mean error units are in Mg ha−1. Symbols represent different locations. NASA Yw simulations were performed for the time interval 1997–2007. Average water deficit (mm) over the maize growing season, as determined by simulations using control-data, was −42 (Cedar Rapids, IA), −135 (Lincoln, NE), −149 (Grand Island, NE), and −238 (McCook, NE).
Bottom Line: In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12-19% of the absolute mean).We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain.An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus