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Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.

Yang LP, Liang SY, Wang XJ, Li XJ, Wu YL, Ma W - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group.Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.

Methodology/principal findings: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.

Conclusions/significance: Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Notified cases, model fit cases (2006–2011), predictive cases (2012) of scrub typhus by SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model.
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pntd-0003420-g004: Notified cases, model fit cases (2006–2011), predictive cases (2012) of scrub typhus by SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model.

Mentions: All the number of notified cases from Jan 2012 to Dec 2012 were in the 95% confidence interval of the forecasting values by the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model. The model was used to predict values from January to December 2012 for validation. The notified cases and fitted cases by the best fitted SARIMA model from 2006 to 2011, and the actual cases and predicted cases from January to December 2012, were illustrated in Fig. 4. It showed that the predicted values could follow the upturn and downturn of the observed series reasonably well. In addition, the fitted values appeared some negative values, which was a common case with the series with too many zeros as observed values in the series of scrub typhus cases. The SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model showed that the prevailing disease occurred mainly in autumn and peaked in October.


Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.

Yang LP, Liang SY, Wang XJ, Li XJ, Wu YL, Ma W - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

Notified cases, model fit cases (2006–2011), predictive cases (2012) of scrub typhus by SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288724&req=5

pntd-0003420-g004: Notified cases, model fit cases (2006–2011), predictive cases (2012) of scrub typhus by SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model.
Mentions: All the number of notified cases from Jan 2012 to Dec 2012 were in the 95% confidence interval of the forecasting values by the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model. The model was used to predict values from January to December 2012 for validation. The notified cases and fitted cases by the best fitted SARIMA model from 2006 to 2011, and the actual cases and predicted cases from January to December 2012, were illustrated in Fig. 4. It showed that the predicted values could follow the upturn and downturn of the observed series reasonably well. In addition, the fitted values appeared some negative values, which was a common case with the series with too many zeros as observed values in the series of scrub typhus cases. The SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model showed that the prevailing disease occurred mainly in autumn and peaked in October.

Bottom Line: For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group.Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.

Methodology/principal findings: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.

Conclusions/significance: Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus