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Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.

Yang LP, Liang SY, Wang XJ, Li XJ, Wu YL, Ma W - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group.Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.

Methodology/principal findings: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.

Conclusions/significance: Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of differenced time series of scrub typhus cases in Laiwu, China.A, Autocorrelation function; B, Partial autocorrelation function.
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pntd-0003420-g003: The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of differenced time series of scrub typhus cases in Laiwu, China.A, Autocorrelation function; B, Partial autocorrelation function.

Mentions: The series of notified cases was a non-stationary series. Therefore, by taking 1 order general difference, followed by 1 order seasonal difference and length of seasonal period was 12, the time series of scrub typhus cases was corrected into stationary series. Fig. 3 shows the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of scrub typhus cases in Laiwu, China after differencing. Based on the distribution characteristic, we conducted several models, SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,1)12, SARIMA(0,1,0)(2,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12, SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12, SARIMA(0,1,0)(2,1,0)12, SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 and SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12. Of all the models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for the data (Table 5). Moreover, the Ljung-Box test suggested that the ACF of residuals for the model at different lag times was not significantly different from zero, i.e. the residuals of the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was satisfied with white noise. The stationary residuals provided the evidence that the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was adequate. All the coefficients of the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12model were significant (Table 5, 6). The equation of the SARIMA was .


Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.

Yang LP, Liang SY, Wang XJ, Li XJ, Wu YL, Ma W - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of differenced time series of scrub typhus cases in Laiwu, China.A, Autocorrelation function; B, Partial autocorrelation function.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288724&req=5

pntd-0003420-g003: The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of differenced time series of scrub typhus cases in Laiwu, China.A, Autocorrelation function; B, Partial autocorrelation function.
Mentions: The series of notified cases was a non-stationary series. Therefore, by taking 1 order general difference, followed by 1 order seasonal difference and length of seasonal period was 12, the time series of scrub typhus cases was corrected into stationary series. Fig. 3 shows the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of scrub typhus cases in Laiwu, China after differencing. Based on the distribution characteristic, we conducted several models, SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,1)12, SARIMA(0,1,0)(2,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12, SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12, SARIMA(0,1,0)(2,1,0)12, SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 and SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12. Of all the models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for the data (Table 5). Moreover, the Ljung-Box test suggested that the ACF of residuals for the model at different lag times was not significantly different from zero, i.e. the residuals of the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was satisfied with white noise. The stationary residuals provided the evidence that the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was adequate. All the coefficients of the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12model were significant (Table 5, 6). The equation of the SARIMA was .

Bottom Line: For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group.Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.

Methodology/principal findings: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.

Conclusions/significance: Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus