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Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.

Yang LP, Liang SY, Wang XJ, Li XJ, Wu YL, Ma W - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

Bottom Line: For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group.Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.

Methodology/principal findings: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.

Conclusions/significance: Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

The breakdown of average DALY rate of scrub typhus in different age groups and gender in Laiwu, China (2006–2012).Scrub typhus was an acute illness. YLLs were zero. No sequelae.
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pntd-0003420-g002: The breakdown of average DALY rate of scrub typhus in different age groups and gender in Laiwu, China (2006–2012).Scrub typhus was an acute illness. YLLs were zero. No sequelae.

Mentions: DALY rates (DALYs/100,000) of scrub typhus were 0.3663, 0.7933, 0.8106, 0.4437, 0.6179, 0.7883 and 1.0618 from 2006 to 2012, respectively. The average annual DALY rate was 0.6974 DALYs/100,000. The DALY rate was higher among females (0.8019 DALYs/1 00,000) than among males (0.5961DALYs/100,000). Moreover, DALY rates in females and males were both highest for the 60–69 years age group (Table 3). Fig. 2 shows the breakdown of average DALY rates of scrub typhus in different age groups and gender in Laiwu. Since all cases of scrub typhus were cured in Laiwu, no sequelae were recorded.


Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.

Yang LP, Liang SY, Wang XJ, Li XJ, Wu YL, Ma W - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2015)

The breakdown of average DALY rate of scrub typhus in different age groups and gender in Laiwu, China (2006–2012).Scrub typhus was an acute illness. YLLs were zero. No sequelae.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288724&req=5

pntd-0003420-g002: The breakdown of average DALY rate of scrub typhus in different age groups and gender in Laiwu, China (2006–2012).Scrub typhus was an acute illness. YLLs were zero. No sequelae.
Mentions: DALY rates (DALYs/100,000) of scrub typhus were 0.3663, 0.7933, 0.8106, 0.4437, 0.6179, 0.7883 and 1.0618 from 2006 to 2012, respectively. The average annual DALY rate was 0.6974 DALYs/100,000. The DALY rate was higher among females (0.8019 DALYs/1 00,000) than among males (0.5961DALYs/100,000). Moreover, DALY rates in females and males were both highest for the 60–69 years age group (Table 3). Fig. 2 shows the breakdown of average DALY rates of scrub typhus in different age groups and gender in Laiwu. Since all cases of scrub typhus were cured in Laiwu, no sequelae were recorded.

Bottom Line: For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group.Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.

Methodology/principal findings: A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.

Conclusions/significance: Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus