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Familial and sporadic idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: making the diagnosis from peripheral blood.

Meltzer EB, Barry WT, Yang IV, Brown KK, Schwarz MI, Patel H, Ashley A, Noble PW, Schwartz DA, Steele MP - BMC Genomics (2014)

Bottom Line: Unsupervised clustering failed to discriminate between samples of different severity.The signature was successfully applied to the validation set, ROC area under the curve = 0.893, p < 0.0001.By using Bayesian probit regression to develop a model, we show that it is entirely possible to make a diagnosis of IPF from the peripheral blood with gene signatures.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, 1313 21st Avenue South, 1105 Oxford House, Nashville, TN, USA. mark.p.steele@vanderbilt.edu.

ABSTRACT

Background: Peripheral blood biomarkers might improve diagnostic accuracy for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

Results: Gene expression profiles were obtained from 89 patients with IPF and 26 normal controls. Samples were stratified according to severity of disease based on pulmonary function. The stratified dataset was split into subsets; two-thirds of the samples were selected to comprise the training set, while one-third was reserved for the validation set. Bayesian probit regression was used on the training set to develop a gene expression model for IPF versus normal. The gene expression model was tested by using it on the validation set to perform class prediction. Unsupervised clustering failed to discriminate between samples of different severity. Therefore, samples of all severities were included in the training and validation sets, in equal proportions. A gene signature model was developed from the training set. The model was built in an iterative fashion with the number of gene features selected to minimize the misclassification error in cross validation. The final model was based on the top 108 discriminating genes in the training set. The signature was successfully applied to the validation set, ROC area under the curve = 0.893, p < 0.0001. Using the optimal threshold (0.74) accurate class predictions were made for 77% of the test cases with sensitivity = 0.70, specificity = 1.00.

Conclusions: By using Bayesian probit regression to develop a model, we show that it is entirely possible to make a diagnosis of IPF from the peripheral blood with gene signatures.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

ROC curve, based on results of the validation testing. The optimal cutoff point (as indicated) was determined by the Youden index. See Table 2 for a numerical summary of the operating characteristics.
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Fig7: ROC curve, based on results of the validation testing. The optimal cutoff point (as indicated) was determined by the Youden index. See Table 2 for a numerical summary of the operating characteristics.

Mentions: An ROC curve (Figure 7) and a contingency table (Additional file 6) are used to analyze the performance characteristics of this gene signature, based on results of the validation test. The Youden index was used to compute the optimal threshold of predictive probability that maximizes sensitivity and specificity. The Wilcoxon rank sum was performed to test the general association between predicted probability and true phenotype (p < 0.0001). Complete performance characteristics (Table 2) show a sensitivity of 70%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, negative predictive value of 50%, and overall accuracy of 77%.Figure 7


Familial and sporadic idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: making the diagnosis from peripheral blood.

Meltzer EB, Barry WT, Yang IV, Brown KK, Schwarz MI, Patel H, Ashley A, Noble PW, Schwartz DA, Steele MP - BMC Genomics (2014)

ROC curve, based on results of the validation testing. The optimal cutoff point (as indicated) was determined by the Youden index. See Table 2 for a numerical summary of the operating characteristics.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4288625&req=5

Fig7: ROC curve, based on results of the validation testing. The optimal cutoff point (as indicated) was determined by the Youden index. See Table 2 for a numerical summary of the operating characteristics.
Mentions: An ROC curve (Figure 7) and a contingency table (Additional file 6) are used to analyze the performance characteristics of this gene signature, based on results of the validation test. The Youden index was used to compute the optimal threshold of predictive probability that maximizes sensitivity and specificity. The Wilcoxon rank sum was performed to test the general association between predicted probability and true phenotype (p < 0.0001). Complete performance characteristics (Table 2) show a sensitivity of 70%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, negative predictive value of 50%, and overall accuracy of 77%.Figure 7

Bottom Line: Unsupervised clustering failed to discriminate between samples of different severity.The signature was successfully applied to the validation set, ROC area under the curve = 0.893, p < 0.0001.By using Bayesian probit regression to develop a model, we show that it is entirely possible to make a diagnosis of IPF from the peripheral blood with gene signatures.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Division of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, 1313 21st Avenue South, 1105 Oxford House, Nashville, TN, USA. mark.p.steele@vanderbilt.edu.

ABSTRACT

Background: Peripheral blood biomarkers might improve diagnostic accuracy for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

Results: Gene expression profiles were obtained from 89 patients with IPF and 26 normal controls. Samples were stratified according to severity of disease based on pulmonary function. The stratified dataset was split into subsets; two-thirds of the samples were selected to comprise the training set, while one-third was reserved for the validation set. Bayesian probit regression was used on the training set to develop a gene expression model for IPF versus normal. The gene expression model was tested by using it on the validation set to perform class prediction. Unsupervised clustering failed to discriminate between samples of different severity. Therefore, samples of all severities were included in the training and validation sets, in equal proportions. A gene signature model was developed from the training set. The model was built in an iterative fashion with the number of gene features selected to minimize the misclassification error in cross validation. The final model was based on the top 108 discriminating genes in the training set. The signature was successfully applied to the validation set, ROC area under the curve = 0.893, p < 0.0001. Using the optimal threshold (0.74) accurate class predictions were made for 77% of the test cases with sensitivity = 0.70, specificity = 1.00.

Conclusions: By using Bayesian probit regression to develop a model, we show that it is entirely possible to make a diagnosis of IPF from the peripheral blood with gene signatures.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus