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Variability modeling of rainfall, deforestation, and incidence of american tegumentary leishmaniasis in orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

Rosales JC, Yang HM, Avila Blas OJ - Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis (2014)

Bottom Line: Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks.These results were tested at 95% confidence level.We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Departamento de Matemática, Facultad de Cs. Exactas, U.N.Sa, Avenue Bolivia 5150, A4408FVY Salta, Salta Province, Argentina ; EPIFISMA, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, CP 6065, 13083-859 Campinas, SP, Brazil.

ABSTRACT
American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

(a) Relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis cases in Orán, Salta, Argentina, period 1985–2007. (b) Sample autocorrelation function for relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Department of Orán, 1985–2007.
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fig3: (a) Relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis cases in Orán, Salta, Argentina, period 1985–2007. (b) Sample autocorrelation function for relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Department of Orán, 1985–2007.

Mentions: The relative (sqrt) incidence data smoothed by using moving average with lag 12, according to (1), for the period 1985–2007, are displayed in Figure 3(a). It shows a similar behavior in comparison to Figure 2. The absolute maximum represents an approximated increase of 100% (1.95) for the period 1997–1999 in comparison to 1990-1991 and 61% for the period 2002–2004. This situation keeps out of the confidence interval associated with the probable historical behavior registered until 1996. The bounds are drawn in blue and the smoothed mean series is indicated in red.


Variability modeling of rainfall, deforestation, and incidence of american tegumentary leishmaniasis in orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

Rosales JC, Yang HM, Avila Blas OJ - Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis (2014)

(a) Relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis cases in Orán, Salta, Argentina, period 1985–2007. (b) Sample autocorrelation function for relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Department of Orán, 1985–2007.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4281399&req=5

fig3: (a) Relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis cases in Orán, Salta, Argentina, period 1985–2007. (b) Sample autocorrelation function for relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Department of Orán, 1985–2007.
Mentions: The relative (sqrt) incidence data smoothed by using moving average with lag 12, according to (1), for the period 1985–2007, are displayed in Figure 3(a). It shows a similar behavior in comparison to Figure 2. The absolute maximum represents an approximated increase of 100% (1.95) for the period 1997–1999 in comparison to 1990-1991 and 61% for the period 2002–2004. This situation keeps out of the confidence interval associated with the probable historical behavior registered until 1996. The bounds are drawn in blue and the smoothed mean series is indicated in red.

Bottom Line: Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks.These results were tested at 95% confidence level.We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Departamento de Matemática, Facultad de Cs. Exactas, U.N.Sa, Avenue Bolivia 5150, A4408FVY Salta, Salta Province, Argentina ; EPIFISMA, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, CP 6065, 13083-859 Campinas, SP, Brazil.

ABSTRACT
American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus