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Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

St John PD, Montgomery PR - BMJ (2014)

Bottom Line: The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education.The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone.An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Section of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Medicine, and the Centre on Aging, University of Manitoba, GE 547 Health Sciences Centre, 820 Sherbrook St, Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3A 1R9 pstjohn@hsc.mb.ca.

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Kaplan-Meier survival curve of older community living adults based on appetite and cognition
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fig1: Kaplan-Meier survival curve of older community living adults based on appetite and cognition

Mentions: Table 2 shows the characteristics of the 1751 participants. The simple aphorism predicted mortality (figure). The effect was attenuated by considering other factors but remained significant (table 3). In addition, each item predicted death: the unadjusted hazard ratio for appetite was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.44 to 2.22) and the hazard ratio adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status was 1.63 (1.31 to 2.03). The unadjusted hazard ratio for cognitive impairment was 2.21 (1.82 to 2.68) and the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.46 (1.16 to 1.83). The continuous risk index predicted survival in Cox regression analyses: the unadjusted hazard ratio was 0.74 (0.70 to 0.79) per point on the score and the adjusted hazard ratio was 0.87 (0.80 to 0.94).


Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

St John PD, Montgomery PR - BMJ (2014)

Kaplan-Meier survival curve of older community living adults based on appetite and cognition
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4265979&req=5

fig1: Kaplan-Meier survival curve of older community living adults based on appetite and cognition
Mentions: Table 2 shows the characteristics of the 1751 participants. The simple aphorism predicted mortality (figure). The effect was attenuated by considering other factors but remained significant (table 3). In addition, each item predicted death: the unadjusted hazard ratio for appetite was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.44 to 2.22) and the hazard ratio adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status was 1.63 (1.31 to 2.03). The unadjusted hazard ratio for cognitive impairment was 2.21 (1.82 to 2.68) and the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.46 (1.16 to 1.83). The continuous risk index predicted survival in Cox regression analyses: the unadjusted hazard ratio was 0.74 (0.70 to 0.79) per point on the score and the adjusted hazard ratio was 0.87 (0.80 to 0.94).

Bottom Line: The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education.The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone.An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Section of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Medicine, and the Centre on Aging, University of Manitoba, GE 547 Health Sciences Centre, 820 Sherbrook St, Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3A 1R9 pstjohn@hsc.mb.ca.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus