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The effect of temperature on cardiovascular disease hospital admissions among elderly people in Thai Nguyen Province, Vietnam.

Giang PN, Dung do V, Bao Giang K, Vinhc HV, Rocklöv J - Glob Health Action (2014)

Bottom Line: The cumulative effect of cold exposure on CVD admissions was statistically significant with a relative risk of 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.25) for 1°C decrease below the threshold.The cumulative effect of hot temperature on CVD admissions was found to be non-significant and was estimated to be at a relative risk of 1.17 (95% confidence interval: 0.90-1.52) for 1°C increase in the temperature.No significant association was found between CVD admissions and the other weather variables.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Administration of Science technology and Training, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT

Background: Projected increases in weather variability due to climate change will have severe consequences on human health, increasing mortality, and disease rates. Among these, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), highly prevalent among the elderly, have been shown to be sensitive to extreme temperatures and heat waves.

Objectives: This study aimed to find out the relationship between daily temperature (and other weather parameters) and daily CVD hospital admissions among the elderly population in Thai Nguyen province, a northern province of Vietnam.

Methods: Retrospective data of CVD cases were obtained from a data base of four hospitals in Thai Nguyen province for a period of 5 years from 2008 to 2012. CVD hospital admissions were aggregated by day and merged with daily weather data from this period. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to derive specific estimates of the effect of weather parameters on CVD hospital admissions of up to 30 days, adjusted for time trends using b-splines, day of the week, and public holidays.

Results: This study shows that the average point of minimum CVD admissions was at 26°C. Above and below this threshold, the cumulative CVD admission risk over 30 lag days tended to increase with both lower and higher temperatures. The cold effect was found to occur 4-15 days following exposure, peaking at a week's delay. The cumulative effect of cold exposure on CVD admissions was statistically significant with a relative risk of 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.25) for 1°C decrease below the threshold. The cumulative effect of hot temperature on CVD admissions was found to be non-significant and was estimated to be at a relative risk of 1.17 (95% confidence interval: 0.90-1.52) for 1°C increase in the temperature. No significant association was found between CVD admissions and the other weather variables.

Conclusion: Exposure to cold temperature is associated with increasing CVD admission risk among the elderly population.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) admissions by temperature, which is denoted as Var, and lag using cross-basis smoothing. Left from top: RR by temperature at selected lags 0, 4, 7, 14, and 30°C. Right from top: RR by lag at selected temperatures 13, 20, 28, and 30°C. Risk of CVD admission is scaled to be relative to that at 26°C, the temperature that is sustained so that the CVD admission would be the lowest. Reference at 26°C. The 95% confident intervals are reported as shaded areas.
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Figure 0004: Relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) admissions by temperature, which is denoted as Var, and lag using cross-basis smoothing. Left from top: RR by temperature at selected lags 0, 4, 7, 14, and 30°C. Right from top: RR by lag at selected temperatures 13, 20, 28, and 30°C. Risk of CVD admission is scaled to be relative to that at 26°C, the temperature that is sustained so that the CVD admission would be the lowest. Reference at 26°C. The 95% confident intervals are reported as shaded areas.

Mentions: In Figure 4, the left graphs from top present the relative risk by temperature at selected lags 0, 4, 7, 14, and 30 (the relationship for all lags modeled are presented in Fig. 2). Low temperature did not have a clear effect at lag 0 but significantly increased CVD admission risk at lag 4, lag 7 (most significant), and lag 14, whereas high temperature reduced CVD admission risk at lag 0 and increased the risk of CVD admission at lag 4, lag 7, and lag 14 (but not significant). The effects of both low temperature and high temperature on CVD admissions became negligible at lag 30.


The effect of temperature on cardiovascular disease hospital admissions among elderly people in Thai Nguyen Province, Vietnam.

Giang PN, Dung do V, Bao Giang K, Vinhc HV, Rocklöv J - Glob Health Action (2014)

Relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) admissions by temperature, which is denoted as Var, and lag using cross-basis smoothing. Left from top: RR by temperature at selected lags 0, 4, 7, 14, and 30°C. Right from top: RR by lag at selected temperatures 13, 20, 28, and 30°C. Risk of CVD admission is scaled to be relative to that at 26°C, the temperature that is sustained so that the CVD admission would be the lowest. Reference at 26°C. The 95% confident intervals are reported as shaded areas.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4265648&req=5

Figure 0004: Relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) admissions by temperature, which is denoted as Var, and lag using cross-basis smoothing. Left from top: RR by temperature at selected lags 0, 4, 7, 14, and 30°C. Right from top: RR by lag at selected temperatures 13, 20, 28, and 30°C. Risk of CVD admission is scaled to be relative to that at 26°C, the temperature that is sustained so that the CVD admission would be the lowest. Reference at 26°C. The 95% confident intervals are reported as shaded areas.
Mentions: In Figure 4, the left graphs from top present the relative risk by temperature at selected lags 0, 4, 7, 14, and 30 (the relationship for all lags modeled are presented in Fig. 2). Low temperature did not have a clear effect at lag 0 but significantly increased CVD admission risk at lag 4, lag 7 (most significant), and lag 14, whereas high temperature reduced CVD admission risk at lag 0 and increased the risk of CVD admission at lag 4, lag 7, and lag 14 (but not significant). The effects of both low temperature and high temperature on CVD admissions became negligible at lag 30.

Bottom Line: The cumulative effect of cold exposure on CVD admissions was statistically significant with a relative risk of 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.25) for 1°C decrease below the threshold.The cumulative effect of hot temperature on CVD admissions was found to be non-significant and was estimated to be at a relative risk of 1.17 (95% confidence interval: 0.90-1.52) for 1°C increase in the temperature.No significant association was found between CVD admissions and the other weather variables.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Administration of Science technology and Training, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT

Background: Projected increases in weather variability due to climate change will have severe consequences on human health, increasing mortality, and disease rates. Among these, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), highly prevalent among the elderly, have been shown to be sensitive to extreme temperatures and heat waves.

Objectives: This study aimed to find out the relationship between daily temperature (and other weather parameters) and daily CVD hospital admissions among the elderly population in Thai Nguyen province, a northern province of Vietnam.

Methods: Retrospective data of CVD cases were obtained from a data base of four hospitals in Thai Nguyen province for a period of 5 years from 2008 to 2012. CVD hospital admissions were aggregated by day and merged with daily weather data from this period. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to derive specific estimates of the effect of weather parameters on CVD hospital admissions of up to 30 days, adjusted for time trends using b-splines, day of the week, and public holidays.

Results: This study shows that the average point of minimum CVD admissions was at 26°C. Above and below this threshold, the cumulative CVD admission risk over 30 lag days tended to increase with both lower and higher temperatures. The cold effect was found to occur 4-15 days following exposure, peaking at a week's delay. The cumulative effect of cold exposure on CVD admissions was statistically significant with a relative risk of 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.25) for 1°C decrease below the threshold. The cumulative effect of hot temperature on CVD admissions was found to be non-significant and was estimated to be at a relative risk of 1.17 (95% confidence interval: 0.90-1.52) for 1°C increase in the temperature. No significant association was found between CVD admissions and the other weather variables.

Conclusion: Exposure to cold temperature is associated with increasing CVD admission risk among the elderly population.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus