Development and evaluation of a baseline-event-anticipation score for hepatitis delta.
Bottom Line: The baseline-event-anticipation score (BEA score) was developed based on variables associated with the development of liver-related clinical complications.Age, region of origin, presence of cirrhosis, albumin, INR, hyperbilirubinemia and thrombocytopenia were all associated with the development of an event in the training cohort.Delta hepatitis is associated with a very severe long-term outcome.
Affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Side HepNet Study-House, Hannover, Germany.Show MeSH
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Mentions: Once points were allocated, multiple score distributions were analysed to differentiate three risk groups. The group division with the best ROC performance (area under curve, AUC = 0.818) was considered the most favourable. The three risk categories were defined as follows: mild risk (BEA-A; patients with 0 or 1 point), moderate risk (BEA-B; 2–4 points) and severe risk (BEA-C; patients with BEA scores above four points). Only one of 19 patients (5.3%) with 0 or 1 BEA points, but 16 of 30 individuals (53%) with 2–4 and 9 of 10 (90%) patients with 5–7 points experienced an event. Significant differences among all the three categories were confirmed by Kaplan–Meier analyses and univariate Cox regression analysis (Fig. 3a).
Affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Side HepNet Study-House, Hannover, Germany.