Development and evaluation of a baseline-event-anticipation score for hepatitis delta.
Bottom Line: The baseline-event-anticipation score (BEA score) was developed based on variables associated with the development of liver-related clinical complications.Age, region of origin, presence of cirrhosis, albumin, INR, hyperbilirubinemia and thrombocytopenia were all associated with the development of an event in the training cohort.Delta hepatitis is associated with a very severe long-term outcome.
Affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Side HepNet Study-House, Hannover, Germany.Show MeSH
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Mentions: After the variable selection was finished, we assigned them points according to their hazard ratio (HR): age older than 40 (HR = 2.1, P = 0.04), Eastern Mediterranean origin (HR = 3.76, P < 0.001), INR above 1.2 (HR = 4.56, P < 0.001), platelet count below 100 000/μL (1 point, HR = 6.65, P < 0.001) or 50 000/μL (2 points, HR = 11.63, P < 0.001), bilirubin above the ULN (HR = 2.21, P = 0.04) and male sex (HR = 2.07, P = 0.08) (Table 2, Fig. 2a). Taken together, in the BEA score, we included factors that reflect the patient's demographics, the presence of portal hypertension, and the liver's protein production and breakdown functions.
Affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Side HepNet Study-House, Hannover, Germany.