Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.
Bottom Line: Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts.In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery.Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.
Affiliation: Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7050, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden.Show MeSH
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Mentions: MAGIC predicted pH decreased between 1860 and 1980 for all 85 lakes (Fig.3a) and 28 lakes were considered significantly acidified (ΔpH >0.4 units). In 1980, pH was 5.5 or lower for 14 of the acidified lakes and roach were absent in 11. Disagreement between the two methods was found for seven lakes: four where roach was absent and pH >5.5, and three lakes where roach was present and pH <5.5 in 1980 (Fig.3a).
Affiliation: Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7050, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden.