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Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

Valinia S, Englund G, Moldan F, Futter MN, Köhler SJ, Bishop K, Fölster J - Glob Chang Biol (2014)

Bottom Line: Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts.In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery.Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7050, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden.

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The 85 lakes analyzed with MAGIC hindcasts, and historical observations of roach. On the Y-axis, pH reconstructed from MAGIC in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b) and on the X axis reconstructed pH 1860. Black triangles (▴) indicate lakes where roach has disappeared and circles (◯) indicate lakes where roach is present. The dotted line shows the criteria for significant acidification (ΔpH > 0.4), the striped horizontal line indicates the critical value of pH 5.5, and the solid black line is the 1/1 line.
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fig03: The 85 lakes analyzed with MAGIC hindcasts, and historical observations of roach. On the Y-axis, pH reconstructed from MAGIC in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b) and on the X axis reconstructed pH 1860. Black triangles (▴) indicate lakes where roach has disappeared and circles (◯) indicate lakes where roach is present. The dotted line shows the criteria for significant acidification (ΔpH > 0.4), the striped horizontal line indicates the critical value of pH 5.5, and the solid black line is the 1/1 line.

Mentions: MAGIC predicted pH decreased between 1860 and 1980 for all 85 lakes (Fig.3a) and 28 lakes were considered significantly acidified (ΔpH >0.4 units). In 1980, pH was 5.5 or lower for 14 of the acidified lakes and roach were absent in 11. Disagreement between the two methods was found for seven lakes: four where roach was absent and pH >5.5, and three lakes where roach was present and pH <5.5 in 1980 (Fig.3a).


Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

Valinia S, Englund G, Moldan F, Futter MN, Köhler SJ, Bishop K, Fölster J - Glob Chang Biol (2014)

The 85 lakes analyzed with MAGIC hindcasts, and historical observations of roach. On the Y-axis, pH reconstructed from MAGIC in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b) and on the X axis reconstructed pH 1860. Black triangles (▴) indicate lakes where roach has disappeared and circles (◯) indicate lakes where roach is present. The dotted line shows the criteria for significant acidification (ΔpH > 0.4), the striped horizontal line indicates the critical value of pH 5.5, and the solid black line is the 1/1 line.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4257505&req=5

fig03: The 85 lakes analyzed with MAGIC hindcasts, and historical observations of roach. On the Y-axis, pH reconstructed from MAGIC in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b) and on the X axis reconstructed pH 1860. Black triangles (▴) indicate lakes where roach has disappeared and circles (◯) indicate lakes where roach is present. The dotted line shows the criteria for significant acidification (ΔpH > 0.4), the striped horizontal line indicates the critical value of pH 5.5, and the solid black line is the 1/1 line.
Mentions: MAGIC predicted pH decreased between 1860 and 1980 for all 85 lakes (Fig.3a) and 28 lakes were considered significantly acidified (ΔpH >0.4 units). In 1980, pH was 5.5 or lower for 14 of the acidified lakes and roach were absent in 11. Disagreement between the two methods was found for seven lakes: four where roach was absent and pH >5.5, and three lakes where roach was present and pH <5.5 in 1980 (Fig.3a).

Bottom Line: Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts.In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery.Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7050, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus