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Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B, McMichael AJ - Environ. Health Perspect. (2014)

Bottom Line: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates.Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT

Background: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.

Objectives: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.

Methods: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates.

Results: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.

Conclusions: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Estimated RRs and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality due to heat (A,B; temperature threshold: 93rd percentile, lags 0–1) and cold (C,D; temperature threshold: 60th percentile, lags 0–27) for all ages in the England and Wales region (left) and cities of Australia (right). Yorks and Hum, Yorkshire and Humber. The RRs were derived from time-series regression analyses assuming Poisson variation with scale overdispersion. Heat and cold effects were estimated separately.
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f1: Estimated RRs and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality due to heat (A,B; temperature threshold: 93rd percentile, lags 0–1) and cold (C,D; temperature threshold: 60th percentile, lags 0–27) for all ages in the England and Wales region (left) and cities of Australia (right). Yorks and Hum, Yorkshire and Humber. The RRs were derived from time-series regression analyses assuming Poisson variation with scale overdispersion. Heat and cold effects were estimated separately.

Mentions: Temperature–mortality relationships. The estimated RR of all-cause mortality increased significantly (p < 0.05) when daily mean temperatures exceeded the 93rd percentile thresholds in UK regions and Australian cities (Figure 1). The heat-related RRs showed substantial regional heterogeneity, with people living in London generally having higher RRs than those in other regions of England and Wales (Figure 1). In Australia, there was also substantial heterogeneity among RRs of mortality associated with hot weather in different cities, with Brisbane’s population having higher RR. However, confidence intervals (CIs), particularly for Brisbane but also for other Australian cities (Adelaide and Perth), are very broad because their resident populations are smaller than those of Sydney, Melbourne, London, and other UK regions.


Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B, McMichael AJ - Environ. Health Perspect. (2014)

Estimated RRs and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality due to heat (A,B; temperature threshold: 93rd percentile, lags 0–1) and cold (C,D; temperature threshold: 60th percentile, lags 0–27) for all ages in the England and Wales region (left) and cities of Australia (right). Yorks and Hum, Yorkshire and Humber. The RRs were derived from time-series regression analyses assuming Poisson variation with scale overdispersion. Heat and cold effects were estimated separately.
© Copyright Policy - public-domain
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4256046&req=5

f1: Estimated RRs and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality due to heat (A,B; temperature threshold: 93rd percentile, lags 0–1) and cold (C,D; temperature threshold: 60th percentile, lags 0–27) for all ages in the England and Wales region (left) and cities of Australia (right). Yorks and Hum, Yorkshire and Humber. The RRs were derived from time-series regression analyses assuming Poisson variation with scale overdispersion. Heat and cold effects were estimated separately.
Mentions: Temperature–mortality relationships. The estimated RR of all-cause mortality increased significantly (p < 0.05) when daily mean temperatures exceeded the 93rd percentile thresholds in UK regions and Australian cities (Figure 1). The heat-related RRs showed substantial regional heterogeneity, with people living in London generally having higher RRs than those in other regions of England and Wales (Figure 1). In Australia, there was also substantial heterogeneity among RRs of mortality associated with hot weather in different cities, with Brisbane’s population having higher RR. However, confidence intervals (CIs), particularly for Brisbane but also for other Australian cities (Adelaide and Perth), are very broad because their resident populations are smaller than those of Sydney, Melbourne, London, and other UK regions.

Bottom Line: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates.Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT

Background: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.

Objectives: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.

Methods: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates.

Results: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.

Conclusions: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus